Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:51:32

Constituency Profile


Cillis, Allison

Errygers, Janet

Stebbing, Jennifer

Sweet, David

Tilden, David


David Sweet

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



886.16 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Sweet ** 2413743.50%
Jennifer Stebbing 2172839.10%
Mike DiLivio 777914.00%
David Allan Urquhart 18663.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3360.74%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Niagara West-Glanbrook
   (45.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (45.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Hamilton Mountain
   (9.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Donna Skelly 2245443.53%
Melissa Mcglashan 1763034.17%
Judi Partridge 796715.44%
Janet Errygers 23074.47%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7581.76%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
CPC hold here as David Sweet will get another term in Ottawa.
03/10/19 bv
Sweet held this in 2015 in a strong Liberal showing - with polls showing a much tighter race this time, he'll hold this riding with probably a 10 point margin. Population growth trends don't favour the Conservatives, but if a riding like oakville north is predicted to move into the blue column, this is an easy hold for the 4-time incumbent.
16/09/19 Hammer
As others point out, the continued urbanization of this riding will change the voting outcome. However, it will take a perfect combination for Sweet to lose this time. Its certainly possible -- the decline of the NDP vote, new residents, etc. --- but I'm not optimistic.
26/08/19 seasaw
Another prediction change, the riding now has grown by about 15,000 new voters, mainly from the GTA 905. While 905ers may move their voting habits remain the same, so if the Liberals are doing well in 905 GTA, they'll take this, if not they won't
10/08/20 A.S.
FlamGlan's like Carleton: an exurban-belt riding designed to be a CPC vote dumpster, but where the inherent Trudeau-amenable moderation of the "new exurbans" gave the supposedly "safe" incumbent running a scare. And despite whatever impressions David Sweet might fuel, the unbreakable Bible-Beltiness isn't really *that* predominant: in fact, it's quite containable largely within rural Flamborough, and any number of Chretien-era (or, provincially, Ted McMeekin-era) Liberal campaigns are testament to how containable it is. Though the fact that Sweet held on regardless has a lingering incumbent-advantage way of breaking the container, even if on paper, growth favours the Liberals (and unlike come-from-behind 2015, Stebbing's now a "viable known quantity")
29/05/19 Craig
This is a changing riding with the rapid growth of Binbrook, Waterdown and the Hamilton airport area, due to GTA commuters being priced outward. Without the growth this would be a solid Conservative riding, but the 2018 provincial results (more than the 2015 federal results) are telling. A fairly narrow PC win (with a star candidate) in a good election for them is a sign of vulnerability.
The new residents here may not like David Sweet either being quite socially conservative. That used to be an asset but is increasingly becoming a liability. Unlike traditional Hamilton, they aren't working class either so they would be naturally more likely to swing to the Liberals. I'd say this is too close to call.
13/04/19 Chris N
Back in 2015, I felt that this new riding was a slam dunk for the Conservatives. I thought of the riding as as sort of rural and small town 'bible belt' around Hamilton. To my surprise, the Liberals had a solid showing, coming within only 4% of unseating veteran David Sweet. One thing I did not account for was the exploding population of the riding's two towns: Binbrook and Waterdown. Four years later, these communities continue to grows, with many GTA transplants and their families moving into new subdivisions and changing the demographics of the traditionally socially conservative, Dutch Reform region. These transplants could be more amiable to the Trudeau Liberal brand, even with Liberals dipping in the polls. I give Conservatives the slight edge, but anything can happen in the next six months.
31/03/19 Sam
I agree with what Dr Bear said, but I think with David Sweet running again, and the Liberals having troubles in Ontario in particular, they would only take this if they were increasing their nationwide majority, something I don't see happening. If this were to go Liberal, unlike, for example, the BC Interior where there is more doubt around these sorts of ridings, I would imagine the Liberals had the chance in 2015, a chance they would not have again.
07/03/19 Dr.Bear
This will likely be a Conservative hold, however I can not ignore that the 2015 split was only 4 points. If an election was held today it'd be an easy call for team blue, but who knows where the electorate will be in October.
05/03/19 seasaw
Though things may change in the future, at the moment this riding seems to be safe for the Tories

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