|In 2008, Mike Nagy did amazingly well here (20%). That has to be one of the best results for a Green party candidate, ever. The Liberal leader (Dion) was extremely unpopular, the Liberal candidate (Valeriotte) a newcomer, and the Tory candidate (Kovacs) a well-known City councillor.|
And still the Liberals took it.
Even Pierre Poutine couldnt shake the Liberal hold here. I agree that the Greens are likely to do amazingly well here: with the excitement of Mike Schreiners victory, and the fact that they had a competitive nomination race resulting in choosing a very strong candidate. But I dont think it will be enough to win the riding, or even enough to spoil it for the Liberal incumbent and allow a Tory victory.
|This is my home riding, I grew up in the riding, left for a few years and came back to raise my family here. I can say that the voters here can be classified in 3 groups. The largest group is the longtime residents. These voters are almost always Liberal-Tory switchers, who every once in a while pick the person over the party and even once in a blue moon vote for another party. The smallest group is the hippy-artsy types, they usually gravitate towards Green or NDP but will sometime vote Liberal to keep the Tories out. The second largest group is the new residents, and they're like 905ers, as are their voting habits. So, after knowing these from someone who lives here, it's too early to make a prediction, even if the Liberals may be the safe bet.|
||Right Honourable Adult|
|Going out on a limb here and predicting this will be Ontario's first Green riding (federally) later this year [pun intended]. |
Having the local MPP as a well-known and public public figure will allow the Greens to employ the team strategy that they are where the other Green members (BC, NB, ON, PE) are seen as working together and getting results.
One doesn't have to be a Green supporter to recognize that this will be a huge benefit in a riding that opts to vote !Conservative at a time when the NDP will be awol and the Liberals are squandering a full eight months leading up to election.
If the Green campaign locally does a half-decent job, the Greens will be seen as the best suitable alternative and elect another MP here.
|I agree with the prediction change to Liberal. It's often assumed the only other party who would win here is the Greens, but they would just as likely play spoiler to the Conservatives. As M. Lunn said, this is a university town, and that does bode well for the Greens, but Lloyd Longfield is definitely on the progressive wing of the Liberals, and has the power of incumbency when the Greens tend to do much better in open seat races, which explains Frank Valeriote's underperformance in 2008 and gain in 2011. The Greens also have nobody of the calibre of Mike Schreiner to run here. Unless there is a huge Green surge, which is unlikely even with good results expected, the Liberals should be re-elected.|
|Guelph consistently teases all the major parties and some of the minor ones, but in the end, at least federally, it always goes to the Liberals.|
|I wouldn't rule the Greens out of this one. Sure, provincial election results don't necessarily (and generally don't) translate to federal election results, but the Greens have in fact done well here federally before. In 2008 they managed to get over 21% of the vote, with the Liberals dipping significantly, so there is indeed pre-existing Green support here, and with their current polling numbers, they're likely to make gains to an extent. If they run a good candidate with a decent campaign, I'd wager they could pick up Guelph, but the Liberals certainly have the edge. The Conservatives on the other hand seem to have a ceiling of 33% here. If they manage to pick this one up somehow it will be more due to a vote split than a considerable gain.|
|Guelph's been a Liberal stronghold since the early 2000s. The only way the CPC win this riding is if the progressive vote is split evenly between the LPC/NDP/GPC. |
Just because the Greens won this provincially doesn't mean it will happen again. Mike Schreiner spent four years campaigning in Guelph and the Liberal vote collapsed.
|This is a university town so unlike surrounding areas, it will go whichever progressive party is most likely to stop the Tories which is the Liberals.|
|Guelph has elected Liberals federally since '93. So, it's a Liberal stronghold, right ? Wrong. The CPC, has had opportunities, but they've shot themselves in the foot here. They can win here, with the right fundraising and the right campaign. So far, haven't seen any evidence of it. The Green victory provincially might give their campaign a shot in the arm, but one must also take into consideration that the Green victory was the result of a candidate campaigning for a long time and the Wynne and Ford factors, none will matter this time around|