Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:51:45

Constituency Profile


Burnett, Juanita

Dyck, Steve

Jahangir, Aisha

Klevering, Kornelis

Longfield, Lloyd

Paralovos, Mark

Sachan, Ashish

Truscott, Gordon

Wassilyn, Michael


Lloyd Longfield

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



87.22 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Lloyd Longfield 3430349.10%
Gloria Kovach 1840726.30%
Andrew Seagram 839212.00%
Gord Miller 790911.30%
Alexander Fekri 5200.70%
Kornelis Klevering 1930.30%
Tristan Dineen 1440.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5830.98%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Mike Schreiner 2908245.03%
Ray Ferraro 1408421.81%
Agnieszka Mlynarz 1392921.57%
Sly Castaldi 653710.12%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3480.66%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
A green riding provincially, I think it will say red federally.
02/10/19 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet said today that ‘The Liberal incumbent Lloyd Longfield appears headed to an easy re-election here’
02/10/19 R.O.
Quiet riding so far , been a top green target of late and did elect Mike Schreiner provincially. But some factors seem to work against the green’s here . first off its not an open riding and there up against an incumbent liberal mp. secondly students will have the option of voting in home ridings as advance polls occur during thanksgiving break, meaning the student green vote could be spread out in many different likely non competitive ridings instead of Guelph. Thirdly the fact Gord Miller decided to run in another riding after putting in a lot of effort here in 2015. But either way will likely still be one of the stronger green results in Ontario.
17/08/20 A.S.
Unfortunately, 'attractiveness to academics' is pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking in an era when the Conservative brand is associated with a concrete-headed premier as well as all your usual creationists, global-warming deniers, etc. Seriously; at any level higher than municipal, the 'Lib-Tory switcher' impulse has been fraying seemingly beyond reach for the Con forces in Guelph. In fact, the provincial Schreiner victory not only proves the Greens can be a perfectly adequate moderate (as opposed to hippy-artsy) option for that 'switcher' demo, it hints at an alternate possibility: a Victoria-esque 'Greens vs non-Greens' primary race, with the incumbent Libs substituting for the incumbent NDP.
23/06/19 seasaw
Obviously Quis Sait isn't from here. In 2008, yes Dion was unpopular, but most good things here in the past 60 years, have had the name Valeriote attached to it, besides in 2008, the local Tories had nominated their candidate, but the party brass fired him and appointed Kovach, which angered all the local Tories. This year though, things are a lot different, Dr Ashish Sachan is the CPC candidate and he's the type who can attract academics and small business owners as well as the ethnic community. Justin Trudeau isn't popular and Lloyd Longfield, though a nice man, however a man with unflattering nicknames as Silent Lloyd and Do Nothing Lloyd is the incumbent. Still, there's a very good chance that Lloyd can win here, we'll have to wait and see how the campaign goes.
21/05/19 Qui sait
In 2008, Mike Nagy did amazingly well here (20%). That has to be one of the best results for a Green party candidate, ever. The Liberal leader (Dion) was extremely unpopular, the Liberal candidate (Valeriotte) a newcomer, and the Tory candidate (Kovacs) a well-known City councillor.
And still the Liberals took it.
Even Pierre Poutine couldn’t shake the Liberal hold here. I agree that the Greens are likely to do amazingly well here: with the excitement of Mike Schreiner’s victory, and the fact that they had a competitive nomination race resulting in choosing a very strong candidate. But I don’t think it will be enough to win the riding, or even enough to spoil it for the Liberal incumbent and allow a Tory victory.
20/04/19 seasaw
This is my home riding, I grew up in the riding, left for a few years and came back to raise my family here. I can say that the voters here can be classified in 3 groups. The largest group is the longtime residents. These voters are almost always Liberal-Tory switchers, who every once in a while pick the person over the party and even once in a blue moon vote for another party. The smallest group is the hippy-artsy types, they usually gravitate towards Green or NDP but will sometime vote Liberal to keep the Tories out. The second largest group is the new residents, and they're like 905ers, as are their voting habits. So, after knowing these from someone who lives here, it's too early to make a prediction, even if the Liberals may be the safe bet.
12/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
Going out on a limb here and predicting this will be Ontario's first Green riding (federally) later this year [pun intended].
Having the local MPP as a well-known and public public figure will allow the Greens to employ the ‘team’ strategy that they are where the other Green members (BC, NB, ON, PE) are seen as working together and getting results.
One doesn't have to be a Green supporter to recognize that this will be a huge benefit in a riding that opts to vote !Conservative at a time when the NDP will be awol and the Liberals are squandering a full eight months leading up to election.
If the Green campaign locally does a half-decent job, the Greens will be seen as the best suitable alternative and elect another MP here.
12/04/19 Sam
I agree with the prediction change to Liberal. It's often assumed the only other party who would win here is the Greens, but they would just as likely play spoiler to the Conservatives. As M. Lunn said, this is a university town, and that does bode well for the Greens, but Lloyd Longfield is definitely on the progressive wing of the Liberals, and has the power of incumbency when the Greens tend to do much better in open seat races, which explains Frank Valeriote's underperformance in 2008 and gain in 2011. The Greens also have nobody of the calibre of Mike Schreiner to run here. Unless there is a huge Green surge, which is unlikely even with good results expected, the Liberals should be re-elected.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Guelph consistently teases all the major parties and some of the minor ones, but in the end, at least federally, it always goes to the Liberals.
22/03/19 Islander
I wouldn't rule the Greens out of this one. Sure, provincial election results don't necessarily (and generally don't) translate to federal election results, but the Greens have in fact done well here federally before. In 2008 they managed to get over 21% of the vote, with the Liberals dipping significantly, so there is indeed pre-existing Green support here, and with their current polling numbers, they're likely to make gains to an extent. If they run a good candidate with a decent campaign, I'd wager they could pick up Guelph, but the Liberals certainly have the edge. The Conservatives on the other hand seem to have a ceiling of 33% here. If they manage to pick this one up somehow it will be more due to a vote split than a considerable gain.
27/02/19 Kumar Patel
Guelph's been a Liberal stronghold since the early 2000s. The only way the CPC win this riding is if the progressive vote is split evenly between the LPC/NDP/GPC.
Just because the Greens won this provincially doesn't mean it will happen again. Mike Schreiner spent four years campaigning in Guelph and the Liberal vote collapsed.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is a university town so unlike surrounding areas, it will go whichever progressive party is most likely to stop the Tories which is the Liberals.
22/02/19 seasaw
Guelph has elected Liberals federally since '93. So, it's a Liberal stronghold, right ? Wrong. The CPC, has had opportunities, but they've shot themselves in the foot here. They can win here, with the right fundraising and the right campaign. So far, haven't seen any evidence of it. The Green victory provincially might give their campaign a shot in the arm, but one must also take into consideration that the Green victory was the result of a candidate campaigning for a long time and the Wynne and Ford factors, none will matter this time around

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