Election Prediction Project

Hamilton Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:52:03

Constituency Profile


Ciriello, Monica

Duyzer, Gary

Graydon, Edward

Green, Matthew

Kujavsky, Jasper

Lemma, Tony

Lopez, Jason

Mamone, Melina

Yan, Nathalie Xian Yi


David Christopherson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



30.22 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Christopherson ** 1871945.60%
Anne Tennier 1371833.40%
Yonatan Rozenszajn 601814.60%
Ute Schmid-Jones 17784.30%
Michael James Baldasaro 3480.80%
Rob Young 3160.80%
Maria Anastasiou 1860.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 9252.69%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Hamilton Centre
   (90.25% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   (9.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Andrea Horwath * 2386665.25%
Dionne Duncan 573015.67%
Deirdre Pike 398210.89%
Jason Lopez 21025.75%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4891.64%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Mainstreet had a poll that said the Liberals were ahead here, I doubt that. The riding has been Liberal in the past but NDP since 2004. I think that doesn't change here in 2019.
17/10/19 Hammer
The Matthew Green team was in force on the Thanksgiving weekend canvasing my neighbourhood. I also recieved several pieces of NDP campaign literature. Nothing from any of the other parties the entire election period. Normally, I don't receive anything -- its apparent Green is not taking any chances. In terms of signs, its about 12-2-2, NDP-Liberal-Green. I noticed some conservative signs in the wealthier southwest.
Not surprised to hear Kujuvsky signs near Barton and Victoria. Its near the old Polish neigbourhood and also close to the Italian/Portuguese neigbourhoods. The older immigrants are part of the Copps old guard. However, Green will get his support from the East End and downtown. Surpised not to see more Liberal signs in the west end of the riding.
14/10/19 Dr. Bear
@ Karl, Hammer and others: I invite you to come to my neighborhood near the General Hospital. Drive down Victoria or Wellington. Take a walk along the side streets. On private property there are many, many prominent Liberal signs, as well as many more Conservative signs than usual. The amount of blue is striking this time. I would say that there is a slight edge for NDP signs and the Liberals quite close behind.
While it is still one week out, I think the NDP have the momentum and likely will hold on the Hamilton Centre. I think the Liberals will be in second place, clearly showing that they have the capacity to win this riding in a stringer election year. We will also see a surprisingly better showing for the CPC than what we have seen in recent electionprediction-go-rounds. If we are back at the polls in a year or two (because of a failed minority situation), all three parties will be paying close attention to this seat.
14/10/19 Chris N
I simply can’t see the Liberals gaining this seat. I spend most of my time in the downtown and east end of the riding, living in the latter, and the NDP clearly has the larger presence, based on leaflets and signage. A real testament to the NDP’s reach in this riding is where you’re seeing the signs: private homes on dead end streets, high rise apartment balconies and small apartment windows. Most of the Liberal signs I’ve seen are on vacant lots or strategically located at busy intersections. As noted earlier, the ‘Torontofication’ of Hamilton Centre is overstated. This is still a working class riding, and the poorest riding in Ontario. The NDP’s growth in recent post-debate polling will likely seal the deal for Matthew Green.
13/10/19 Karl
So Hamilton Centre is made up of Wards 1, 2, 3, and a tiny bit of 4. Matthew was City Councillor for Ward 3, and wards 1-4 are arguably the most progressive/leftist in the city of Hamilton. The last comment was a little confusing, not sure why Green would run in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek when he lives in Hamilton Centre. Either way 338 now has the riding showing at a 93% chance for NDP. Jasper has zero cred in the riding, he was also behind a failed 2015 run for the Liberal nomination in HWAD. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in 3rd.
10/10/19 jeff316
Green jumped too early into the wrong election into the wrong riding. Running against Trudeau in Hamilton hipster central in a riding that mostly wasn't in his city ouncil ward when the NDP is tanking was a bad play. He would have done better building his streetcred on council while waiting for Bratina to bore of being a backbencher over in Hamilton East Stoney Creek. Juravsky might just pip this.
08/10/19 Marco Ricci
Mainstreeet said on Twitter today that in ‘Hamilton Centre, Jasper Kujavsky leads a close race for liberal party’
07/10/19 Danny
Not sure why this was changed. If the NDP were down to 10 seats, I'd keep this one in their column.
I don't doubt that the Liberals have organizational strength here, but signs don't vote. Kujavsky strikes me as a total paper candidate; Matthew Green has better name recognition and is likely going to be a big fixture in the NDP for years to come. I'm not sure the whole ‘strategic vote’ argument will work here even if the NDP campaign collapses (and by all indications they are on the upswing).
06/10/19 Hammer
Very strange call especially after 338 put the riding back in the NDP column. NDP signs are most predominant whereas the Liberal signs are, as previous commentator points out, mostly on abandoned buildings, businesses, and construction sites. The homeless are stealing the Liberal signs for their own use and leaving the NDP signs alone. Kunjavsky is an old guard Liberal from the Bratina-Copps wing as opposed to the social activist Geleynse who lost the nomination. This may affect the enthusiasm level. There is some solid support for the Green Party in the west end but its probably at the Liberal party's expense. Unlike the Liberals, the Conservatives actually have signs in front of private homes. In the provincial election, none could be found indicating right wing Ford populism has no appeal here. As for canvasing, I rarely receive campaign literature but this time the NDP has been around twice and nothing from the other parties.
Finally, Matthew Green was a city councillor from 2014-2018 serving a full term and declining to run again as he didn't thing it proper to run for a seat when he knew he was running federally the next year.
05/10/19 Karl
The NDP is clearly winning the sign war in the ward. Despite the previous comment liberal signs are barely seen across the riding. Most of them are placed on businesses and abandoned building where as every neighbourhood has multiple NDP signs. My own area hasn't seen a liberal canvas or flyer but NDP volunteers have left literature twice. Matthew's debate performance performing was stronger than the liberals. It's looking more likely that Hamilton Centre will see the liberals come in third after the conservatives like in 2011.
01/10/19 Dr Bear
Report from the riding itself: I still don't think this will be a cakewalk for Green and the NDP. While I agree that he is the favorite to win; and I agree that Singh as been doing better than expected in the campaign (however the bar was already set very low); the Liberals do have a very strong and obvious ground game. Kujavsky signs are as large and plentiful as Green signs are. What has surprised me the most is how visible and numerous the signs for CPC candidate Cirello are. I have never seen so much CPC/PC support in Hamilton Centre. Expect them to do significantly better this time.
30/09/19 Rational Optimist
Amazingly, the NDP really could lose this. I used to live in this riding (west side), and was chatting with friends there over the weekend. They were claiming that there was better-than-typical support for the Greens and that the Green candidate seemed to be organizing a very effective campaign. They also claimed that people were pretty lukewarm about Matthew Green's decision to leave municipal politics after less than a full term to run federally. These are west-enders, not from Green's former ward.
With Christopherson gone, the Liberals may be able to take this. It would be an upset for sure, and a terrible result for the NDP, but it's possible.
15/09/19 Hammer
Lispop lists Hamilton Centre as solid NDP. Not sure if 338 takes into account regional differnces or go with overall trends. Green has an organizational advantage, has been campaigning all summer, and is already out with signs everywhere even in the more Liberal friendly west side of the riding. Whatever the national trends, Hamilton Centre will remain NDP.
15/09/19 The Jackal
Despite the NDP's woes this is a safe seat for them. It will be close but the Dippers will prevail here.
01/09/19 ME
This now a toss up with the NDP in serious decline ....338 has it rated as a tossup between the Liberals and NDP
10/08/20 A.S.
Let's not make too much of Hamilton Centre's "distorted world view" cohort, even if anti-Pride protesters and the like (and the municipal mishandling thereof) drag the notion to the local forefront. If Jagmeet Singh's fatally disadvantaged here in the heart of Horwathlandia, it's in a universal way that presages the federal NDP being all but wiped off the electoral map--in fact, Christopherson or no Christopherson, if there's *any* riding in all of Ontario that's poised to see a federal reprise of the reaped rewards of 2018's ONDP "urban strategy", it's this one. And obviously fueled by the fact that it remained NDP in 2015, thus it lacks the 416's stick-with-the-strategic-Lib-incumbent circumstances. (H-Mountain & L-Fanshawe are too suburban; Windsor's a matter unto itself.)
02/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Christopherson's retirement couldn't be more ill-timed given the precarious situation the federal NDP is in; but despite that, I do believe they will prevail here. The machinery in place and ebbing fortunes of the Liberal party (who will probably bleed a few votes to the Conservatives here also) should make a fairly high name-rec NDP candidate a good bet. I could envision a scenario where the Liberals take it but the best bet is still the NDP.
12/04/19 MF
Hamilton Centre is one of the safest NDP seats in Ontario. I think people are greatly overstating gentrification and its impact on the NDP vote - this is one of the lowest income ridings in the province. I suspect the riding is gentrifying more in a Davenport kind of way than in a Spadina-Fort York kind of way. Either way the Libs aren't picking this up this year. The NDP have a very strong candidate in Matthew Green who appeals to both working class populists and the ‘new’ Hamilton.
09/04/19 Chris N
With Christopherson’s departure, it could be tempting to call this too-close-to-call. However, unless the Liberals find a high-profile star candidate, I think Matthew Green is on track to hold the seat for the NDP. Green has a diverse coalition of labour unions, civic groups and activists that helped propel him to city council in 2014, and his hand-picked successor in 2018. While I agree with previous posters that Hamilton Centre is changing, the gentrification that is occurring is still relatively confined to pockets like James Street, the North End, Ottawa Street and the Delta. The majority of Hamilton Centre, especially in the east end, has largely been untouched by the ‘Toronto invasion,’ and should still be amiable to the more populist bent of Green.
16/03/19 Sam
The NDP vote will probably take a hit, but this is a riding which combines several good demographics for the NDP. It is changing and gentrifying, but the chance of this going another way is unlikely. It's not safe, but I suspect it narrowly keeps to its NDP roots.
10/03/19 seasaw
I agree with Dr Bear, though I've never lived in the riding, I did work here for several years. If you look at the riding, it has had a strong Liberal past, the part of the riding east of Wellington St, was the riding of John Munro and Sheila Coops, and in nearly 8 decades, only elected a Tory twice, other times it was always Liberal, the riding west of it, was the riding of two historical Tories, Ellen Fairclogh and Lincoln Alexander, but again they elected Liberals thrice as many times as Tories and never an NDP, I'm not saying that NDP has no chance, my point is it's not safe NDP
26/02/19 Dr. Bear
My partner lives in this riding and I live here part time, so I do have a bit on an inside perspective of this seat. That being said, I currently have a prediction that I'm sure will be controversial: I don't think the NDP have a lock on this seat. Losing David Christopherson is a blow for the party, as he was, by and large, liked by most constituents. Matthew Green, on the other hand, has recognition as a city councilor and, while a darling to some, comes off as an insincere attention-seeker to others. Then there is the gentrification factor. Central Hamilton is changing fast and is becoming more and more like central Toronto. Then there is the issue of the NDP leader. He is not someone that resonates with the blue collar working class (sorry, fancy suits, expensive cars and a Rolex collection do not impress these people). As well, many voters here have some 'unusual' world views (to put it mildly). Remember that crazy woman who ran into a rally last year, accusing Singh of being a Muslim? While she is not from this riding, there are plenty of voters in this riding that share a similarly distorted world-view. I see this everyday when I'm here and I would not be overly surprised if the race is surprisingly close.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is a very safe NDP riding, so even with their weak numbers and David Christopherson not running again, I suspect they will hold this. Also Andrea Howarth's riding provincially and she will no doubt help her federal cousins and is very popular here.

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