Election Prediction Project

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:52:12

Constituency Profile


Bratina, Bob

Crocker, Charles

Kaur, Nikki

Milanovic, Nick

Ormond, Peter


Bob Bratina

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



67.40 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bob Bratina 1962239.00%
Wayne Marston ** 1646532.70%
Diane Bubanko 1271525.30%
Erin Davis 13052.60%
Bob Mann 1700.30%
Wendell Fields 550.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 10752.40%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Paul Miller * 2251851.15%
Akash Grewal 1268428.81%
Jennifer Stebbing 532012.09%
Brian Munroe 18844.28%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8692.21%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Bratina hasn't done himself no favors it seems. I think that will cost him the seat and it'll return to the NDP.
12/10/19 Cal
Singh may not have long coattails but he’s got enough to bring this over the line.
06/10/19 Hammer
A split between social justice issues and labour is highly overstated. A Singh vs Horwath approach is a matter of strategy. To say SJW/identity politics don't sit well with folks here is to underestimate their intelligence and ability to see labour and social justice as two sides to the same coin. Some people may stay home or go Green but these would be the same fickle voters that put Bratina over the top last time. The core Liberal and NDP voters are relatively the same -- its the swing voter that both sides need to capture and Bratina made it more difficult for himself
22/09/19 jeff316
Why did Bratina's relationship with the Steelworkers fall apart so spectacularly? Because he understands that the people that can help you get elected most often are not the ones you need to stay elected. Simply said, the Steelworkers bark is louder than their bite, and their influence in HE-SC is overstated. Bratina holds.
17/09/19 Dr. Bear
Hammer is very much correct about underlying displeasure with Bratina and his interactions with steel workers. That said, the current federal NDP has abandoned blue-collar workers in favor of SJW rhetoric and identity politics: things that don't go down well in these parts. I think we are going to see many disenfranchised voters just staying home this time. However lack of funds and poor prospects for the NDP will hinder their chances here more so than the Liberals; especially if the NDP are too busy fighting things out on the Mountain and Downtown.
16/09/19 Hammer
Hamiltonians sometimes joke they should vote Liberal or Conservative so they are finally represented in the government. However, Bratina hasn't made any difference for Hamilton. And given his interactions with steelworkers, there is motivaton for the local NDP to campaign hard against him. Due to his own errors, Bratina will have a harder time than he should retaining his seat.
12/09/19 Laurence Putnam
A riding in which the NDP should absolutely be competitive, but in their present circumstances...not so much. Liberal hold.
06/09/19 South Islander
Former Hamilton mayor Bob Bratina won this by 6% against an incumbent in 2015. The LPC are up in Ontario, while the CPC struggle and the NDP are in freefall. Bratina will win easily as the incumbent.
28/08/19 Sam
I said in my initial post it depended on how well the NDP did... so that means a Liberal hold. CPC aren't doing quite so well here either.
11/08/20 A.S.
While MPdom seems so far to be not much more than an excuse for Bratina to while away his post-mayoral/post-radio years, simply being there works to his advantage--like at this point, in the absence of NDP incumbency, the old John Munro/Sheila Copps federal dynamic might as well be reasserting itself...maybe. And really, let's be fair here; the racialized argument against the NDP on leadership grounds might as well also apply to CPC on candidacy grounds. If it applies at all, that is.
29/05/19 Craig
This has 3-way race written all over it. The Liberals have taken a hit among working class voters, while there hasn't been much growth from GTA transplants here so they won't gain that advantage. They do have incumbency though. The Conservatives have a strong candidate and the ability to exploit vote splits, but weak history here. Finally, the NDP have plenty of history and demographics working for them, but a weak leader for the area.
Most likely, this will be decided at the margins and based on national results. I'd say the Liberals have the best shot, followed by the Conservatives then the NDP, but none can be ruled out.
03/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
Unlike the neighbouring riding of Hamilton Mountain, running a Ti-Cat here won't yield the same gains the Tories are likely to get on the escarpment. The fact that Bob Bratina beat the long-time NDP incumbent in '15 when the NDP had a far more capable leader gives the Liberals the advantage here.
17/03/19 seasaw
This one is a tough one to call. All three major parties could win this one. Bob Bratina is well known and well liked, CPC candidate, Marwan Hage is also well known and well liked. NDP has a strong presence, so let's say TCTC for now
08/03/19 Sam
This riding is an interesting one; in theory it is winnable for all three of the main parties, although the NDP and Liberals are more likely to win this. Bob Bratina may retire and has had some bad press in recent months, and the NDP have a large presence in Hamilton which could affect this riding. Ultimately it is dependent on how well the NDP do as they could take this in many situations. Too early to call.

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