Election Prediction Project

Hastings-Lennox and Addington
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:52:28

Constituency Profile


Bossio, Mike

Gray, Adam L. E.

Sloan, Derek

Tough, David

Watson, Sari


Mike Bossio

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8372.75 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mike Bossio 2110442.40%
Daryl Kramp ** 2087941.90%
Betty Bannon 634812.70%
Cam Mather 14662.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2850.66%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Prince Edward-Hastings
   (54.8% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
   (45.2% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Daryl Kramp 2237450.25%
Nate Smelle 1444132.44%
Tim Rigby 518011.63%
Sari Watson 19244.32%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2010.55%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the CPC will see a few gains on Monday and this will be 1 here. They barely lost here in 2015. In 2019 they win the seat back.
18/10/19 kingstonstudent
The nature of this riding is such that more or less any swing against the Liberals makes it impossible to hold - although A.S. is quite right that the southern portions of the riding hold a surprising number of potential non-Tory voters, which could make things consistently interesting a few years down the road.
13/10/19 R.O.
One thing that should be noted here is the race in this riding is significantly different that 2015, that year you had a longtime cpc mp running in a redistributed riding and facing a rookie liberal candidate in Mike Bossio. This year he is a 1 term liberal mp running against a rookie cpc candidate in Derek Sloan. So the local dynamics aren’t the same but its still such a rural riding and mostly been conservative over the years its hard to see a scenario where it doesn’t return to the cpc.
15/08/20 A.S.
Let me be one to offer Bossio *some* benefit of the doubt; and that's because of the L&A sleeper element that handed him the election in 2015--a fact somewhat camoflauged by how Daryl Kranp was a Hastings County boy and thus made his home turf look weightier in the bigger riding picture than it was. That, plus the fact that the riding has no major centres that would seem to *demand* Liberal winnability...except that the SE section is effectively part of Greater Kingston, a zone that even in its "rural" parts proved surprisingly sluggish for the Ford Tories in a way that somewhat echoed (and threw focus upon) how Bossio came to be. And being Greater Kingston, it's where future growth lies. So, everybody--loosen up your Bancroft/Madoc-centric impressions of HL&A and remember it's that Loyalist rump at the bottom that makes all the difference.
16/05/19 Laurence Putnam
Mike Bossio seems like a nice guy, although one who has failed to distinguish himself in a manner sufficient to ensure his survival for re-election. He's served on three committees, but the average constituent likely doesn't even know that. The area is naturally Conservative and without the vote splitting of the '90s it probably would have only gone Liberal in 1993 and 2015; watershed years. The Liberal honeymoon is over and more than likely, so is Mr. Bossio's time in Ottawa.
18/03/19 Dr.Bear
This was one that surprised me in 2015. Pretty much a fluke going Liberals. I expect this to be a CPC gain.
Should be an easy Conservative pick up this time around. Was a squeaker of a Liberal win last time so with the Liberals not in 'wave' mode anymore this is extremely vulnerable.
16/03/19 Craig
This was a rather surprising Liberal pickup in 2015 (helped by solid numbers along the 401 corridor) but it was very close in a good election for them. Bossio has done nothing to either make himself well known in the riding or nationally, nor has he taken any independent streaks which is often necessary in marginal ridings. That alone would probably do him in.
Hence, this is probably the lowest hanging fruit in Ontario (perhaps Canada) for the Conservatives. Unless the Liberals significantly expand their majority, this should be a flip back to the blue team. Sure, Daryl Kramp isn't back (he's now at Queen's Park), but they have a good candidate anyway.
05/03/19 Neal
This is a riding that should never have fallen to the Liberals, and it only did so by 225 votes.
It won't happen again.
Sloane to carry HLA for the Conservatives by 7-10%
03/03/19 Sam
It was a shock that this went Liberal in 2015, and so it is obvious why Derek Sloan has been selected early for the Conservatives and is definitely working hard to gain this back. Mike Bossio has been a quiet MP during his time in Parliament and so it boils down to the fundamentals, which in exurban and rural Ontario, definitely favour the Conservatives. A Liberal hold isn't out of the question but it would only happen if the Liberals were increasing their national majority, which they are not.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This was one of the biggest upsets and flukes of 2015, but considering the history of the riding would be surprised if it is repeated. Comparing the provincial results to other rural Central and Eastern ridings, I suspect even if the Tories only gain one seat in Ontario, this will that one. This one is sort of akin to Obama winning Indiana in 2008, which was solidly GOP before and solidly since.

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