Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:52:33

Constituency Profile


Klerks, Kevin M.

Lobb, Ben

McQuail, Tony

Thompson, Allan

Wendler, Nicholas


Ben Lobb

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



5601.68 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ben Lobb ** 2617444.90%
Allan Thompson 2312939.70%
Gerard Creces 754413.00%
Jutta Splettstoesser 13982.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2540.48%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lisa Thompson * 2764652.36%
Jan Johnstone 1532629.03%
Don Matheson 735613.93%
Nicholas Wendler 18043.42%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 18043.80%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Was a bit surprised to see this riding wasn't affected by the divided right in 1997 and 2000. I think if the CPC wasn't polling so well they'd lose here, I think they hold on now whether or not they win tomorrow.
02/10/19 Ruralite
This one is interesting. The Liberals got within sniffing distance of this riding last time and certainly, Thompson is more well known this time around.
This isn't your typical rural riding, with the heavy Bruce Power vote in the north that is growing, and is likely heavier Liberal than anything else. The PPC presence is interesting because there are the devout social conservatives who vote in that direction.
The Ford government debacle will hurt soft conservative support here, given Lisa Thompson's embarrassing run as education minister.
I think Lobb is ahead, but Thompson certainly has a shot. I think it will be close.
18/09/19 R.O.
Ben Lobb has been mp for a while , more than likely the riding stays conservative. This riding seems to have shifted more towards the right in recent elections.
17/09/19 Dr. Bear
I am now keeping an eye on this riding, since the PPC will be involved in the debates. Will their increased profile allow them to snatch votes away from the CPC? Will the Liberals hold enough of their 2015 support to capitalize on this potential new-found advantage? I don't know. Stay tuned, this race could be more interesting than what it initially appeared to be.
18/08/20 A.S.
One of a flurry of S Ontario seats where the Liberal who came temptingly close in 2015 is returning to (hopefully) finish off the Con incumbent--the usual too-rural glass-ceiling problem with such seats pertains here; but actually, regardless of whether a SoCon like Paul Steckle is required, there is, or should be, a better-than-usual Lib base here, particularly in the Kincardine-to-Saugeen Shores 'Bruce Power' corridor. It's there, as well as the traditional Liberal stronghold of Walkerton/Mildmay and gentrifying Goderich/Bayfield, that Thompson had his primary polling successes in '15; though there's signs that Walkerton-type 'traditional strongholds' are swinging away (but maybe countered by the Goderiches swinging *toward*). And when it comes to Ford backlashes, MPP Lisa Thompson's mixed tenure as Education Minister's gotta hurt. Also, the social conservativism which propelled Steckle *could* be prone to counter-vote-splitting in a PPC-or-wherever direction--though when it comes to the *left*, there's been that old EPP tradition of plumping for the NDP in Huron-Bruce to consider. All in all, I'm just looking beyond the rubber stamp here.
09/06/19 Sam
Not the safest riding by any means, but the Liberals aren't going to win here this time - they don't have anyone near the calibre of Paul Steckle, and even if Scheer underperforms in Ontario, this isn't one of the very few Conservative ridings that would be close.
29/05/19 Craig
Huron-Bruce may not be the safest Conservative riding in Ontario, but it is solid enough that Ben Lobb should win easily. It would take a CPC meltdown for this riding to swing to the Liberals; even in bad times they've still hung on while in good times they typically get a bit over 50%. It's possible that the university-educated voters at Bruce Power may be a bit less Conservative leaning, but that's just a theory.
If the Liberals still had Paul Steckle, they'd probably win, but his anti-abortion views would go hard against Trudeau. As it is, Lobb is a strong social conservative so that tradition may be continuing (at least federally). Of course, he'll probably never be in cabinet, but at least he'll be back in Parliament.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Whenever the right is united, Tories usually win here. In 2004 and 2006, only fell short as the Liberal MP Paul Steckle was quite right wing compared to the rest of his party, but since then has been relatively safe for the Tories and although sometimes close in bad elections, they would need a meltdown to lose this.

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