Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:17:35

Constituency Profile


Bernardo-Ciddio, Emilio

Raney, Ann

Roberts, Anna

Schulte, Deb

Strgacic, Anton


Deb Schulte

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



426.39 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Deb Schulte 2590847.40%
Konstantin Toubis 2417044.20%
Natalie Rizzo 35716.50%
Ann Raney 10371.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1270.33%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (82.96% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (17.04% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Stephen Lecce 2913656.62%
Marilyn Iafrate 1201223.34%
Andrea Beal 792115.39%
Greg Locke 17543.41%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6271.83%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
A seat to watch tomorrow. A must win for the CPC if they want to become government. I think it's going to be close but Deb Schulte should be able to keep this Liberal.
11/10/19 Mizisuga
Difficult to see the Liberals hold this. The demographics favour the Conservatives, and the 2015 vote was rather close compared to neighbouring ridings. If the Ford factor is so great, then it’s important to note that this is Stephen Lecce’s provincial riding, and his success to prevent the education strike would raise the standing of Conservatives here more than anywhere else.
11/10/19 R.O.
This riding is an odd mix of rural voters and suburban voters who live in Vaughan area close to Toronto. Stephen Lecce won the same riding provincially for the pc’s and now education minister. Anna Roberts is the new cpc candidate this year facing Deb Schulte a 1 term liberal mp. The ndp and greens have never had much presence in this riding. this riding was very close in 2015 and another close result likely this year.
08/10/19 Nick M
Is there some local candidate problem here?
This by all means should be a CPC pickup. Provincial results were promising for the CPC, they lost this seat by low margin in 2015, and the CPC are up 5 points from last election provincially, while LPC are down 5.
Kinda confused why this one is being called Liberal.
08/08/20 A.S.
There may not be a Chinese-Canadian vote a la Markham; but there *is* a growing Jewish-Canadian vote inching up the Dufferin-Bathurst corridor, to the point where if today's conditions existed in 2015, CPC could actually have held King-Vaughan. So it's incumbency fumes and Ford-backlash hopes buoying the Libs now (though pushing against the backlash hopes *might* be the fact that MPP Stephen Lecce's now in cabinet and viewed as an up-and-comer)
22/07/19 seasaw
It was close the last time, and it might be close again this time, Deb has incumbency advantage and has been a good MP, that should be enough to keep this in the red column
16/06/19 Craig
The fact that the Conservatives got nearly 45% of the vote in a bad election here should be a warning for the Liberals. York Region is definitely more Conservative-friendly than Peel or Halton is today, and I would give them the advantage right now. It really comes down to strength of votes in different areas. Maple tends to be a swing area to leaning Liberal, while Nobleton, Kleinburg and King City are strongly Conservative.
The only reason the Liberals have a shot is because the NDP has long totally irrelevant here, meaning the winner will probably need close to 50% anyway. In addition, there isn't nearly as much of a Chinese-Canadian vote here as in Markham. Any NDP or Green gains, however, would likely put the CPC over the top in themselves.
15/04/19 Kumar Patel
This is an interesting riding. Nobleton, King City and Kleinburg lean Conservative, rural King Township is solid Conservative, while the heavily populated Maple leans Liberal. TCTC for now.
30/03/19 GB
This riding barely went Liberal in the 2015 wave (and arguably a weak candidate from the Tories). This time they have nominated Anna Roberts, a very well known community activist in King. Seems as if Deb Schultes personal popularity will not be enough. The riding swung hard to the Tories provincially - almost 60 percent.
26/03/19 Sam
I'm actually going to predict this as Conservative now; having looked at the demographics and good provincial result, it seems as if Deb Schulte's incumbency, a good asset for the Liberals will not make this Liberal again. If the Liberals were increasing their nationwide majority then this could go Liberal again but that isn't happening.
05/03/19 MF
This affluent, 'nouveau riche' York Region riding is probably the first Liberal-held 905 riding to fall to the Conservatives. It was a near-miss in the red wave of 2015 and swung hard toward Doug Ford and the PCs in the provincial election.
02/03/19 Sam
This is almost certainly going to be competitive in 2019; it's one of the ridings that made 2015 a Liberal Majority rather than a Minority. Indeed, whilst Deb Schulte isn't a poor MP, it would only take a small swing to defeat her, and in this area North of Toronto it seems very possible. I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals won it again but I think a Conservative gain is on the cards.

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