Election Prediction Project

Kingston and the Islands
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:01

Constituency Profile


Brooke, Andy

Christmas, Candice

Gerretsen, Mark

Walker, Barrington

Yakoviychuk, Ruslan


Mark Gerretsen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



355.75 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mark Gerretsen 3642155.40%
Andy Brooke 1492822.70%
Daniel Beals ** 1118517.00%
Nathan Townend 29334.50%
Luke McAllister 3050.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Kingston and the Islands
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Ian Arthur 2178839.16%
Sophie Kiwala * 1531227.52%
Gary Bennett 1451226.08%
Robert Kiley 35746.42%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2240.48%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
This stayed Liberal in 2011, in 2019 it'll stay Liberal.
18/10/19 kingstonstudent
While this riding will, true to its history, most likely stick with the Liberals, there are several interesting dynamics to note this time around. To begin with, Andy Brooke is potentially the most affable candidate on a personal level the PPC has on their roster. His pull as a former Conservative candidate for the riding plus a generally sluggish Ontario campaign by the Tories should all but eliminate their chances. The Greens, for their part, usually punch above their weight here, and Candice Christmas, while not quite as visible as Robert Kiley or Eric Walton in years past, is still running a decent campaign. The real X factor here is the NDP - while they probably won't pull off an upset, Barrington Walker has been running a surprisingly strong campaign, even before the general NDP surge materialized. The reputation of Queen's as a relatively conservative campus is well-earned, but the sheer volume of the student turnout - the lines I saw for the advance polls in the ARC were twice as long as any of the lines I've ever seen for the student polls on Election Day - makes me think that the NDP will finish a surprisingly strong second, possibly close to the 30% mark. The combination of Walker's roots on campus as a history professor and Gerretsen's reputation as a grumpy, notoriously student-hostile mayor, not to mention his side career as a landlord, may accelerate that possibility.
26/09/19 Kris
The Liberals aren’t disappearing any time soon from this riding. K-Town likes their vanilla middle-roaders here, and that’s what they get with a prior mayor, property baron, multi-generational politician like Gerretsen, who just happens to be flying under the Lib banner. Sure, they’ll shed some skin here, a little to the NDP since the success of their provincial cousin, but won’t drop below 40% federally. Safe and sound for the Libs.
Too bad as there are some decent candidates; fresh faces with solid backgrounds and strong educational credentials (after all it is a Uni town). Harrington Walker comes to mind here, and is a definite improvement on the previous NDP candidates. And Candice Christmas brings a strong resume too.
Conservative Al is a good success story (an immigrant who started his own construction company and became a self-made success) and the Cons would do well to have recruited more like him federally, instead of the career politicians who read a leaflet or two from the Fraser institute before signing onto the Conservative banner. However, he won’t gain ground in a town that employees a good chunk of its populace in the public sector.
15/08/20 A.S.
Much as in 2015, it's not so clear that the NDP will prevail as the prime challenger--in fact, given Kingston's campus-town Red Tory character, don't be surprised if Green-mania turns it into a three-way race for second (and with what must be the most delightfully named Green candidate in the country, at that)
02/05/19 Sam
Safe Liberal. Kingston isn't going to vote for the Conservatives (even Gary Bennett came third provincially,) so it's a race between the NDP and the Grits. Are the NDP going to challenge here? We're still talking about Parkdale-High Park, Toronto-Danforth and London-Fanshawe being too close to call, so my guess is no. But both the opposition candidates are strong ones, so the swing might be a bit higher.
This riding will most likely go Liberal, but with the strong provincial results, I do believe NDP candidate Barrington Walker has a chance should the ground game come through and the SNC-Lavalin issue resonate with voters.
This riding is historically Liberal, but Gerretsen and his team should be on their toes.
19/03/19 Stevo
The Guelph of Eastern Ontario. Liberal autopilot, though I was surprised to see it swing NDP in the provincial election.
16/03/19 Craig
The chances of the Conservatives picking up Kingston? Zero in the current form. Even in 2011, this went Liberal federally, and it went NDP provincially in 2018 only because they were the anti-Conservative voice. Under older boundaries, they might have had a chance, but with all rural areas and some outer suburban areas (other than the tiny islands) removed from the riding, you're left with a government/university town, highly educated, creative class. SNC-Lavalin won't play much of a role at all here.
This seat should stay with the Liberals, unless they completely collapse and the NDP (or Greens) become the anti-Conservative voice. Kingston is like a progressive island in a largely conservative sea...
09/03/19 turntable
A number of residents are not overly satisfied with the incumbents current approach to constituent outreach. I suspect a number of them see it as he got his position because of his last name.
Given the general trend nationwide regarding the Liberal government and SNC lavalin and the fact that the Conservatives have a younger more blue collar candidate they stand a real shot at winning.
03/03/19 seasaw
This is one of the few Ontario ridings that has consistently elected Liberals for 3 decades. Nothing will change now. Even if the Liberals are reduced to single digit seats in Ontario, this one will be one
26/02/19 Lolitha
Safe Liberal riding, many public service type workers. With weak NDP Liberals should hold easily.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This is a university town so unlike surrounding areas, it will go whichever progressive party is most likely to stop the Tories which is the Liberals.

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