Bernier, Patrick
	Moraga, Andrew
	Morrice, Mike
	Papenburg, Ellen
	Saini, Raj
	Woodworth, Stephen
Incumbent:
	Raj Saini

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			105258 102433 48942 46757 41.47 km² 2538.4/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Raj Saini	25504	48.80%
	Stephen Woodworth **	15872	30.40%
	Susan Cadell	8680	16.60%
	Nicholas Wendler	1597	3.10%
	Slavko Miladinovic	515	1.00%
	Julian Ichim	112	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		18968	40.36%
		10305	21.93%
		15175	32.29%
		2155	4.59%
Other		395	0.84%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Kitchener Centre    (84.9% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Kitchener-Waterloo    (15.1% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Laura Mae Lindo	20512	43.38%
	Mary Henein Thorn	13080	27.66%
	Daiene Vernile *	9499	20.09%
	Stacey Danckert	3234	6.84%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		16078	40.45%
		10018	25.20%
		10648	26.79%
		2493	6.27%
Other		510	1.28%

	21/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Not sure what happens elsewhere in Kitchener but I think this riding will stay in Liberal hands.
	15/10/19	AR 173.180.91.136
Well, the Green's own polls have them in a distant, albeit impressive, 2nd place here. Liberal hold. https://morrice2019.ca/poll-kitchener-centre
	08/10/19	Danb 207.35.15.11
This riding will go Liberal by probably around 10%. The Green Party has been very clear that their primary target in Ontario is the neighbouring riding of Guelph, due to the election of the provincial leader there last year; which I point out occurred without an incumbent MPP to challenge them. As such Guelph has been under the most scrutiny, and has received private polling including the only published one from Mainstreet last week, which has Longfield (the Liberal) leading with over 40% to 24/25% for the Greens and Conservatives. With the other regional polling favouring the Liberals, and with Guelph now unlikely to go Green, it's even less likely that Kitchener Centre would. Morrice has an outside shot of finishing second, an outside shot, but is unlikely to get within 10% of Mr. Saini and will likely come in third with around 20% of the vote-still a respectable turn out though. Granted, the NDP vote could collapse spectacularly and potentially boost Morrice above Woodworth to second. However, it would be a close race for second with Saini still far out in first unless there's a corresponding collapse in Liberal support, which itself could make the race a closer one, but would still be unlikely to change the outcome.
	07/10/19	Giovanni 72.142.115.10
Liberals will finish either 1st or 2nd in the riding, as Saini is a strong incumbent who took nearly 50% of the vote last time. However, Morrice's momentum is absolutely unmatched! Woodworth's name recognition and the Conservative's history in the riding will be good enough to hold him close to 30%. As for the NDP, their support is likely to drop further in lieu of swing-voters on the Left following the intensified local momentum of the Greens. I'm saying this'll be a close one with the Liberals, Greens and Conservatives all finishing within about 5% of each other (30%, +/- 3% each), but I'm holding it out for the Greens!
	26/09/19	seasaw 99.225.229.135
I don't live in this riding, I live in a neighbouring riding, but I do work here, and this is an interesting riding. If you look at the candidates, Raj and Stephen, they're both well liked, well respected individuals, if they were both running, without any affiliations, just as persons, it would be very close, but I give a slight edge to Raj. The problem that Raj has though, is that he's a Liberal and people here are bitterly disappointed at Mr Trudeau, whether or not that's going to be enough to sway their votes, or whether Raj is strong enough to weather the storm, remains to be seen. Also, Mike Morrice of the Greens is running a very strong campaign, he will take votes from other candidates, which candidate, remains to be seen.
	21/09/19	Urbanite 135.23.122.187
I would have said strong Liberal, but a few things have changed my mind recently. First, the Green candidate is running a full campaign not a placeholder one. Second, Mike Schreiner’s election in the provincial election removes a psychological barrier to voting Green. Granted, provincial vs federal and Guelph vs Kitchener-Centre, but it’s a talking point. Third, a Liberal supporter I chat with is noticeably less enthusiastic about this election than the previous one. They dislike how the Liberals handled electoral reform and their perception of the incumbent’s involvement in community events. This was prior to Trudeau’s blackface thing, although as far as I can tell, Liberal supporters seem content with his apology. Fourth, in chatting with neighbours, I see that two folks who voted NDP in the provincial election are planning to vote Green in the federal one. Fifth, the incumbent’s ground game is seemingly non-existent. In walking around the riding, I see lots of Green signs, a fair number of CPC signs but only a handful of Liberal and NDP signs. This is all anecdotal, of course, signs don’t vote, etc. I think it will be a very close thing, no matter which it breaks.
	20/09/19	Danb 207.35.15.11
Morrice may have a ‘good ground game’ but that ground game has also been efficient at putting up signs on lawns which people haven’t asked for. He’s also not the first green candidate to raise 100,000 grand for a campaign; remember money isn’t everything after all. His campaign team uses plastic words and phrases to try to pitch their guy to voters (no different than any other campaign to be fair) however their weak understanding of the information behind the plastic words immediately undermines their case when challenged. They don’t react well when challenged and their platform demonstrates that well they have some good ideas, they want to treat each issue like it exists in a vacuum without other concerns weighing in. That’s important and a dimension they’re underestimating. Morrice is a nice enough guy, though not particularly engaging, and at least he’s not a 9/11 Truther like some of his fellow Green Candidates. However, Saini is strong member of the local community, has stayed continuously engaged in the riding (not left and come back when it suits), and is a good MP focused on communicating and helping all his constituents-not just those that agree with him. Woodworth is the former MP, has also been a continuous member of the community and reprehensible as his views are, does have a legitimate chance of squeaking in as he did in 2008. The two contenders in this riding are Saini (Forward) and Woodworth (Backward). It’ll be an interesting race to watch, but not 2C2C and it’s unlikely Morrice will do better than third.
	20/09/19	Stephen 192.197.178.2
I live in this riding, and it will re-elect the Liberal incumbent. There is no doubt that Morrice is demonstrating a very impressive campaign, but the posters who think this means that the riding can be called for the Greens I expect are very hopeful for that outcome and are not being objective. dtcaslick saying it’s ‘premature’ to call this one for the Greens is an understatement, though he did just that. There is some risk that a large Green share here will dilutee the Liberals’ vote such that Woodworth wins it, but I doubt it will be enough for that. If Morrice wins 15%, he will have done extremely well and much better than the Greens are polling nationally or provincially. But it still wouldn’t be enough to spoil it for the Liberals. 338 Canada, by the way, has this as ‘Safe/likely’ for the Liberals. We can argue about how well Woodworth and Morrice are likely to do specifically, but the Liberals will hold it.
	15/09/19	Gabe 174.88.7.68
Mike Morrice is a star candidate for the Greens in this riding and is drawing support from across party lines. He has raised over $100,000, has knocked on over 25,000 doors, and has over 300 volunteers. His victory is going to come as a huge surprise to the political/media establishment who are obsessed with the horse-race of national polls and aren’t considering local trends.
	14/09/19	dtcaslick 99.250.73.48
Saying this one is staying Liberal is an outdated look at what's going on in Kitchener. Mike Morrice was out of the gate like a bullet...he's everywhere. As soon as the writ was dropped, lawn signs went up across the riding. I've seen at least two dozen signs, not including those on public property. Morrice has knocked on thousands of doors and has received thousands of dollars in donations (I heard $100K...not sure where that number came from though). No one else has had a presence in the riding yet, not even the incumbent. And Morrice is the only candidate whose name I recognize outside of politics. It may be premature to call this one for the Greens, but it is at the very least TCTC.
	12/09/19	Heather 135.23.127.163
The candidate, Mike Morrice has a good ground game going. Day 1 of the election and the teams has already delivered lawn signs across the city. Getting good local (https://www.therecord.com/opinion-story/9588427-luisa-d-amato-some-wonder-if-green-candidate-mike-morrice-is-poised-for-a-breakthrough-in-kitchener) and national media (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-whats-in-a-name-a-potential-forecast-of-canadas-coming-election).
	17/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Far from a 'scary unknown', Woodworth's problem now is that he's a scary *known*, thanks to his past role within the CPC's SoCon caucus. And whether one likes it or not, LRT-spurred 'cultural urbanization' even more than changed boundaries is taking KC out of bellwether territory into something more squarely left-leaning--otherwise, there wouldn't have been such discrepancy btw/ the local ONDP win and the province-wide figures in 2018. (The question this time might be, whither the other 'left' parties, since both the NDP and the Greens have nominated noted environmental activists.)
	16/07/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
@Dr Bear, this riding's been bellwether from 1968-2006 and again since 2008. Looking at today's poll numbers, it's most certainly going to be a Liberal win, but there's 3 months till election day and a lot can happen in 3 months.
	28/06/19	Dr Bear 72.143.192.1
@Seasaw: current polling suggests the CPC is down by two points in Ontario from 2015 election (Liberals down 9 points). That’s still a safe Liberal win for Kitchener Centre.
	16/06/19	Craig 24.213.108.184
The recent growth of central Kitchener, partly due to the incoming Ion rail system, makes Kitchener Centre probably out of reach for the Conservatives. The new residents, for the most part, are technology employees (or associated with them) and highly educated. That's a perfect recipe for today's Liberals. This is certainly not an Obama-Trump riding, more like a moderate Obama-strong Clinton riding in US terms (or a Labour/Lib Dem marginal-strong Remain riding in UK terms). I don't think Stephen Woodworth would have won this seat in 2008 or 2011 with today's boundaries and demographics, as they have changed significantly. A good indicator is the provincial results last year - the PC's couldn't even crack 30% and barely improved on 2014. Hence, I think it's fairly safe for Raj Saini despite the national struggles for the LPC, unless the NDP improves greatly.
	15/06/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
@Dr Bear, If you look at the polls right now, the Liberals are down about 9 points since 2015, while the CPC is up about 6 points, if that were to happen here, it would make this seat close. But the election is months away and we'll have a better idea closer to election time on which way the riding would go.
	15/05/19	Right Honourable Adult 199.119.232.214
What to say of K-C this year? To the Liberal advantage, this is not the same riding Stephen Woodworth won in 2008, with some of the friendlier neighbourhoods in the perimeter carved out in 2015. That said, don't count the Tories out as this area has more of an Obama-Trump swing theme to it and Woodworth is no longer a scary unknown after serving seven years as MP. This is a riding which is more about the Liberals when they're about the social safety net, no when they're about green energy (which is why the NDP won here provincially). Lib-Tory toss up.
	15/03/19	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.70
There is close to a 19 point spread between the Liberals and the CPC in 2015. I feel that is too big of a gap for the CPC to overcome. Liberals would need to be in a much worse place than where they are for this to happen.
	24/02/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
While at the moment I would say a Liberal win, the riding is far from safe. Raj Saini has done a well enough job to win this even if the party doesn't, but still the Tories have won this riding and they could win again with the right campaign. NDP victory in the provincial election was primarily due to Ford and Wynne factors and Andrea Horwath, none of which will matter this time around
	24/02/19	M. Lunn 174.7.100.252
Looking at the recent swing provincially and just the demographics of the riding this is a poor fit for the Tories so despite winning this in 2011, this is one I don't see them retaking even if they do better than expected.