Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 08:50:35

Constituency Profile


Albrecht, Harold

De Wet, Riani

Goertz, Stephanie

Louis, Tim

Wallar, Koltyn


Harold Albrecht

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



895.74 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Harold Albrecht ** 2064943.30%
Tim Louis 2039842.80%
James Villeneuve 46539.80%
Bob Jonkman 13142.80%
Richard Hodgson 6851.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 860.21%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (71.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Kitchener Centre
   (15.79% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Mike Harris 1700539.57%
Kelly Dick 1631937.97%
Joe Gowing 603514.04%
Bob Jonkman 28536.64%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6381.77%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Surprised that Albrecht chose to run again given how close things were last time. I think he holds on again in 2019.
17/10/19 R.O.
Noticed online there was a mainstreet poll for this riding and it has Harold Albrecht with a lead over liberal and ndp opponents .
Quito Maggi? @quito_maggi · 17h17 hours ago
We also have a snapshot of KITCHENER Conestoga where Conservative incumbent @Albrecht4KitCon has a comfortable lead over other challengers #elxn43 #cdnpoli
11/10/19 R.O.
Harold Albrecht has been mp of this riding since 2006 and faced a close race in 2015 from the liberals. but other years the riding wasn’t even close ,in 2008 and 2011 he won the riding by large margins. Likely cause the riding includes a large rural area which is more conservative friendly.
17/08/20 A.S.
For a riding that would *appear* to have a gird of Con safety thanks to its containing the bulk of rural Waterloo Region, Mennonite country and all (and the 'conservative values' that implies), the recent close calls are a bit astonishing--sure, one can offer the 'demographics in K-C have changed' argument; but the seat as it now exists *always* had a significant Lib-amenable Kitchener element, and in fact it has *less* of it now since the last redistribution (essentially, all that remains is a west-of-Fischer-Hallman rump). But there's a reason for everything; in 2015 federally, Tim Louis just proved really efficient at sucking up the strategic vote from the NDP, while the stink left by the Michael-to-Mike-Jr. Harris switcheroo damaged the provincial PCs in 2018 (and this time, the *NDP* was the rather surprising strategic beneficiary). So what happened is that the reduced Kitchener rump swung more dramatically leftward than anticipated...and perhaps, too, some token New Hamburg/Elmira/Breslau etc bedroom-community moderation blunted the countervailing Con advantage in the hinterland. Except that Albrecht still survived, giving him status quo advantage; and having remained in place, one presumes that he now 'knows better'. Many is the case where survivors of a wave wipeout appear superficially poised to be picked off next time as 'unfinished business', only to prevail even when the raw demographic trends aren't in their favour. (That happened a lot in 2001 with UK Tory knife-edge survivors of the 1997 Blairslide.) Thus if 2015 dynamics are transposed to 2018 reality, Albrecht should be a sitting duck; yet...
08/07/19 Laurence Putnam
It was so close last time you can see why the 2015 Liberal candidate can't resist the temptation to try again. However, given the national dynamics of the race it seems hard to believe that he'll get an even better result locally when the national/provincial trends are pointing away from him this time.
16/03/19 PFR
Harold Albrecht has been the MP since 2006 and is very well liked in this riding. He survived the Liberal majority in 2015. He will be victorious once again this time with a bigger margin of victory.
16/03/19 Craig
Demographics have changed quite a bit in Kitchener-Conestoga in the last decade from a mostly rural riding to a more suburban riding, which, in Waterloo Region, is an enormous difference. That largely explains the near-miss in 2015, and the very close provincial result even in a PC majority as well. Hence, if the Liberals want to pick up a seat from the Conservatives, this might be one of their best shots outside Quebec.
As new developments go up, this becomes much more diverse and highly educated (spillover from Kitchener Centre and Waterloo) and the rural/agricultural vote gets weakened. Hence, I'd still consider this too close to call even if the Conservatives are doing better overall.
15/03/19 Dr.Bear
I ask the question: how much has this riding grown since 2015? Only 250 votes separated the winning conservative from the Liberal challenger. Even if the CPC have the edge and (currently) the bounce in the polls, how have the demographics changed and how will this affect the outcome? I say TCTC.
24/02/19 seasaw
The last election, this was a pretty close race, however, the way things stand now, Tories are doing better than the last election and the Liberal support is slipping, I expect this to stay in the blue column

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