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Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:20
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Barton, Matthew

Kennedy, Kayley

Kotze, Stephen

Reid, Scott

Schilling, Satinka


Incumbent:

Scott Reid

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

101630
98424

51548
41424

6467.65 km²
15.7/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Scott Reid ** 2739947.90%
Phil Archambault 1932533.80%
John Fenik 807314.10%
Anita Payne 20253.50%
Mark Budd 4180.70%


2011 Results (redistributed)

3015160.08%
909218.12%
821916.38%
24514.88%
Other 2740.55%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
   (79.05% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (12.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Kingston and the Islands
   (8.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Randy Hillier * 2619452.03%
Ramsey Hart 1533930.47%
Amanda Pulker-Mok 535910.64%
Anita Payne 24104.79%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1181527.98%
1981646.92%
767818.18%
29036.87%
Other 180.04%


19/10/19 Tony Ducey
71.7.242.216
This seat went Conseervative in 2000 during the Chretien years. In 2019 I think Reid wins a 7th term in office.
27/09/19 R.O.
24.146.17.200
Scott Reid has been an mp for a long time ,and this riding is mostly rural with some suburban areas in Carleton Place. It seems likely to stay conservative .
15/08/20 A.S.
99.225.32.21
It only seems "by far the most conservative part of Kingston" because it's the N-of-the-401 rural part; but in fact, it together with South Frontenac outflanks that superlative through collectively being by far the most *Liberal* part of the present riding--part of the "Greater Kingston moderation" pattern that unexpectedly threw HL&A next door to the Liberals. Yet that in its turn is outflanked by giga-hereditary-Con Lanark; and as goes the spectre of commuter-suburbdom enveloping Carleton Place, it's presently more like Ottawa's answer to an Orangeville or Alliston than something with incipient Liberal potential. Don't say things couldn't change in the future, though.
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
An almost 20 year incumbent now, Scott Reid has been a quiet but steady and effective legislator - the Tories have a natural base of support here to be sure - but Scott Reid is a well known commodity in his own right too. Liberals may hate him, but there aren't enough of them in this riding for that to make much difference.
01/04/19 Craig
24.213.108.184
Strong Conservative hold. Scott Reid - and Randy Hillier - are very popular in this riding, while the modern Liberal agenda largely falls flat especially with the SNC-Lavalin saga. The word ‘Kingston’ is misleading; it only includes a small part of the city north of the 401 and that is by far the most conservative part of Kingston as well.
While many commuters from Ottawa have moved out to the northern part of the riding around Carleton Place and Mississippi Mills, it doesn't seem to have affected the political makeup. Perhaps conservatives from Ottawa have relocated to Lanark and that is making their old ridings more liberal? Whatever the case, Scott Reid will be back for a 7th term.
16/03/19 Sam
86.156.206.227
Scott Reid won this for the Canadian Alliance in 2000, and he's still a good fit for the rural Lanark area now. He should do well again.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
This is solid right wing populist territory so easy Tory hold even if their MPP Randy Hillier and federal MP Scott Reid might drive a lot of the downtown Liberal elites nuts.



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