Election Prediction Project

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:23

Constituency Profile


Barrett, Michael

Bennett, Josh

Hindle, Evan

Rekmans, Lorraine

Taylor, Michelle


Michael Barrett

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3382.89 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gord Brown ** 2673847.40%
Mary Jean McFall 2288840.60%
Margaret Andrade 47228.40%
Lorraine A. Rekmans 20883.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Steve Clark * 3000261.27%
Michelle Taylor 968819.78%
David Henderson 654313.36%
Derek Morley 23474.79%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4711.14%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
The Liberals made this close in 2015 but in the by-election the CPC had a bigger victory, I think the CPC get win here on election day.
01/10/19 Kimball Musk
I think a reasonable contranarian argument can be made here.
The PPL could shave off a minority of Conservative votes, kind of like the Reform/Alliance did a decade or two ago. It likely won’t amount to as much of a shedding as with the Reform/Alliance, given it’s the PPL’s first swing, but I think they’ll surprise us somewhat, and even score up to 5-7% of the votes. That could be enough to erode into that Conservative 47% 2015 level, bring them down to 40%, and within fighting distance of the Libs.
This of course assumes the Libs maintain their 40% from 2015 and I think that’s a real possibility for a couple of reasons. First, the old Tory bedrock is dissipating as up-and-coming young, fresh voters replace the Big C old timers. Second, anti-Ford sentiment, especially around class size concerns that vocal Brockville residents have dusted-up, just might eat away a couple more Tory votes (I mean even popular MPP Steve Clark has been taking a beating lately). Third, Scheer doesn’t resonate here like Harper did, and finally, NDP voters may rally around the Libs this time around. In the end, even a couple of these variables at play could be enough to squeak out a LIB victory.
16/09/19 R.O.
Michael Barrett easily won the by election despite a significant liberal effort in the riding , liberal candidate Mary Jean Mcfall is not back for another run.
27/08/19 P.M.
Evan Tennant-Hindle is running for the PPC. I doubt he will hurt Michael Barrett's chances too much.
15/08/20 A.S.
I wouldn't say the byelection proved 2015's close result was a mere "fluke"; if anything, it proved how resilient the Liberal vote was, as McFall lost less than 5 points from her 2015 share and still held a good number of polls in Brockville, Gananoque, the Thousand Islands and Merrickville. So don't assume a landslide this time, either--it may be "likely", but it sure isn't guaranteed. (But remember: I said "landslide", not "victory". "Victory" is a whole lot closer to "guaranteed".)
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Naturally Conservative territory - this is a seat that never would have been Liberal if not for the PC/CA splits of the 90's. In that same time period, Bob Runciman was running up huge wins in what was for a time the exact same geographical riding provincially. The situation isn't much different today and I would expect the federal result to be back above 50% here come October.
07/03/19 Dr.Bear
The 2015 election was close-ish. The recent byelection proved that that was a fluke. Easily a CPC hold.
24/02/19 Sam
The recent by-election results are a good indicator for the Conservatives here. Ontario is one of the provinces that are becoming less enthusiastic about the Liberals, who are currently the only real opposition here.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
One of the safest Tory ridings in Ontario and although surprisingly close in 2015, considering the size of the win provincially and in the by-election, I don't think they will have any difficulty retaining this one.

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