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References:
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 | 19/10/19 |
Tony Ducey 71.7.242.216 |
The Liberals made this close in 2015 but in the by-election the CPC had a bigger victory, I think the CPC get win here on election day. |
 | 01/10/19 |
Kimball Musk 69.159.31.108 |
I think a reasonable contranarian argument can be made here. The PPL could shave off a minority of Conservative votes, kind of like the Reform/Alliance did a decade or two ago. It likely wont amount to as much of a shedding as with the Reform/Alliance, given its the PPLs first swing, but I think theyll surprise us somewhat, and even score up to 5-7% of the votes. That could be enough to erode into that Conservative 47% 2015 level, bring them down to 40%, and within fighting distance of the Libs. This of course assumes the Libs maintain their 40% from 2015 and I think thats a real possibility for a couple of reasons. First, the old Tory bedrock is dissipating as up-and-coming young, fresh voters replace the Big C old timers. Second, anti-Ford sentiment, especially around class size concerns that vocal Brockville residents have dusted-up, just might eat away a couple more Tory votes (I mean even popular MPP Steve Clark has been taking a beating lately). Third, Scheer doesnt resonate here like Harper did, and finally, NDP voters may rally around the Libs this time around. In the end, even a couple of these variables at play could be enough to squeak out a LIB victory. |
 | 16/09/19 |
R.O. 24.146.17.200 |
Michael Barrett easily won the by election despite a significant liberal effort in the riding , liberal candidate Mary Jean Mcfall is not back for another run. |
 | 27/08/19 |
P.M. 65.95.191.81 |
Evan Tennant-Hindle is running for the PPC. I doubt he will hurt Michael Barrett's chances too much. |
 | 15/08/20 |
A.S. 99.225.32.21 |
I wouldn't say the byelection proved 2015's close result was a mere "fluke"; if anything, it proved how resilient the Liberal vote was, as McFall lost less than 5 points from her 2015 share and still held a good number of polls in Brockville, Gananoque, the Thousand Islands and Merrickville. So don't assume a landslide this time, either--it may be "likely", but it sure isn't guaranteed. (But remember: I said "landslide", not "victory". "Victory" is a whole lot closer to "guaranteed".) |
 | 22/07/19 |
Laurence Putnam 96.53.49.70 |
Naturally Conservative territory - this is a seat that never would have been Liberal if not for the PC/CA splits of the 90's. In that same time period, Bob Runciman was running up huge wins in what was for a time the exact same geographical riding provincially. The situation isn't much different today and I would expect the federal result to be back above 50% here come October. |
 | 07/03/19 |
Dr.Bear 204.187.20.70 |
The 2015 election was close-ish. The recent byelection proved that that was a fluke. Easily a CPC hold. |
 | 24/02/19 |
Sam 109.150.190.148 |
The recent by-election results are a good indicator for the Conservatives here. Ontario is one of the provinces that are becoming less enthusiastic about the Liberals, who are currently the only real opposition here. |
 | 24/02/19 |
M. Lunn 174.7.100.252 |
One of the safest Tory ridings in Ontario and although surprisingly close in 2015, considering the size of the win provincially and in the by-election, I don't think they will have any difficulty retaining this one. |
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