Election Prediction Project

London North Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-03-15 21:28:00

Constituency Profile


Fragiskatos, Peter


Peter Fragiskatos

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



58.66 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Fragiskatos 3242750.50%
Susan Truppe ** 1999031.10%
German Gutierrez 942314.70%
Carol Dyck 22863.60%
Marvin Roman 1450.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2110.39%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   London North Centre
   (92.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   London West
   (7.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Terence Devin Kernaghan 2575747.6%
Susan Truppe 1670130.86%
Kate Graham 850115.71%
Carol Dyck 24934.61%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8291.81%

01/04/19 Craig
It takes a total collapse in the Liberal vote for this seat to become competitive. London North Centre is the most educated and affluent riding west of Waterloo, and the only seat in ‘real’ Southwestern Ontario (i.e. beyond GO Transit's reach) that the Liberals can be reasonably considered a favourite in. SNC-Lavalin may hurt them badly in nearby ridings but they'll be insulated a fair bit here.
The Conservatives can't realistically expect more than about 32-35%, which means they'd need a perfect split to win here, while the NDP would need to hope the Liberals tank on a national scale to become the anti-Tory voice. With the NDP weak right now, by default this stays Liberal.
13/03/19 seasaw
As things stand right now, there is a very good chance that the Liberals will not be forming the next government, but things can change. But even if the Liberals lose the next election, they are going to hang on to this riding. The
NDP and the Tories aren't that strong in this riding and unless the Liberals have an epic collapse, they won't lose hers
08/03/19 Sam
This riding definitely favours the Liberals; they only lost it in 2011 and will only lose it again in a massive Liberal collapse. This is not the position the Liberals are currently in.
28/02/19 Kumar Patel
I'm surprised there is a contested nomination for the NDP in this riding. That being said, unless the Dippers are polling around 25% in Ontario, this riding will remain Liberal.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
Woah, hold on! London North Centre TCTC? It took disastrous collapses in Liberal support for this to swing Tory (Federal in 2011) or NDP (Provincial in 2018). The Federal Liberals are not looking at the same kind of situation. While we are currently deep in the SCN-Lavalin scandal, the election is many months away and new issues will be on people's minds by then. Unless we are looking at a routing of the Liberals, this stays red.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
While this went NDP provincially and Tory federally in 2011, both were disasters for the Liberals. This is a quintessentially Liberal riding being middle to upper middle income, university, and urban central so unless they implode they should hold this.

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