Election Prediction Project

London West
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:33

Constituency Profile


Boudreau, Jacques Yvan

Hodge, Mary Ann

Lewkowitz, Shawna

Mcmullen, Mike

Snelgrove, Liz

Young, Kate


Kate Young

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



77.13 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kate Young 3116745.80%
Ed Holder ** 2403635.30%
Matthew Rowlinson 1008714.80%
Dimitri Lascaris 19182.80%
Jacques Y. Boudreau 7321.10%
Michael Lewis 870.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 590.10%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   London West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Peggy Sattler * 3264455.33%
Andrew Lawton 1713329.04%
Jonathan Hughes 58479.91%
Pamela Reid 22113.75%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 11192.14%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold here. This will make London 2/3 red according to my predictons.
18/10/19 kingstonstudent
The first thing that strikes the eye when you walk around my home base of Old South is the incredibly low number of Conservative signs (Gone Fishing's astute observations about the low number of signs overall notwithstanding). Ed Holder was always very competitive even in Wortley Village during his federal runs, and my assumption was that after some provincial anomalies - with collapsing Liberal support in the deep Southwest from 2014 onwards and a very divisive Tory candidate in the last election - Liz Snelgrove would recover most of Ed's old support base. That doesn't seem to be happening as far as I can tell, and what's more, Shawna Lewkowitz seems to be doing much much better than a federal NDP candidate in London West usually does when there's an even mildly competent Liberal campaign. Of course, the suburban western 2/3rds of the riding is for the most part the Liberal-Conservative seesaw you'd expect, which is probably the main obstacle to an NDP win. Kate Young's decent support base across the breadth of the riding makes me think that she'll pull off a narrow win, with the Tories an extremely close second and the NDP putting up some of their best numbers since the late Gina Barber was their candidate.
17/10/19 Gone Fishing
Home riding, I’ve posted about Liberals being outsigned I still see it but i also see a remarkable level of NO SIGNS anywhere so the other parties are not eating liberal lunch.
I think this is going to be as close a riding as any in the country Monday night to watch but my gut feeling is London will not turn unless there is a majority to be had for any party.
SO because the Bloc isn’t running anyone and the Green message is too narrow the region will continue to split, two Libs in the north and west of the city, DIpper daughter in the east and the suburb of St Thomas will be blue
17/10/19 Gone Fishing
Home riding, I’ve posted about Liberals being outsigned I still see it but i also see a remarkable level of NO SIGNS anywhere so the other parties are not eating liberal lunch.
I think this is going to be as close a riding as any in the country Monday night to watch but my gut feeling is London will not turn unless there is a majority to be had for any party.
SO because the Bloc isn’t running anyone and the Green message is too narrow the region will continue to split, two Libs in the north and west of the city, DIpper daughter in the east and the suburb of St Thomas will be blue
13/10/19 Gone Fishing
Still way too close to call. Like prognosticator I am noticing Worley and the other lefty enclaves are not showing their traditional Liberal as preferred lefty choice. Young signs are just not dominate even in public spots which they usually litter. Yesterday on my own west mount street their sign crew stopped twice to put out signs. Today I found them Both to be gone. We don’t have people tearing stuff down I believe these to be homeowners to polite to refuse the signs. I’m thinking that a lot of middle of the spectrum voters are not looking at the CPC as being rightist. What I can’t sense is how much green support there is and whether the dippers can win. It’s way too close to call. I truly believe four candidates all have a shot still.
08/10/19 prognosticator15
I am not at all sure Young will keep this as easily as others have suggested in earlier postings. I would have said a month ago it was a two way race only, and Liz Snelgrove, a local health care executive, could have snatched it in May-June when SNC-Lavallin scandal was relatively fresh. With this, and Admiral Mark Norman's scandal sidelined or diverted by the Libs and a friendly media, Libs have regained a small edge here, helped by the progressivists' tendency to align behind Libs at the federal level and by the fact the Greens are unimportant here. PPC, however, is not important either, limited to a small core of activists. What is most surprising, however, is the NDP strength. Even if this advertising strength hides weaknesses in supporters switching to a favored left party (Liberals) on election day, it is noticeable that NDP is visible literally everywhere in the riding, in all areas, even with the smaller number of signs than CPC in western parts of the riding like Byron, and compared to Libs in Wortley Village and adjacent areas. Young does not have some of the Fragiskatos advantages next door in North Centre (like more pro-Liberal demography assuming it matters this year), and does not seem to be as astute as NDP's Sattler provincially in managing her support constituencies. In fact, this year it is a typical traditional three-party race (or at least, a two party race with NDP having a strong outside chance). In particular, in such ridings bread and butter issues are important, and CPC is winning this debate nationally - not the tightly controlled media-organized circuses on climate change and Aboriginal affairs officially called local debates which put emphasis on issues progressives perceive as most beneficial to them. Some soft voters will switch directly from Young to Snelgrove on these grounds, but it is unclear whether this is enough to win. Cons have traditionally had difficulties attracting more than a small portion of soft/undecided/traditional media-reliant/politically inactive/Trudeau face-loving etcetera electorate, so even as unimpressive an MP as Young can still attract more potential NDP and other voters with a good campaign sponsored by wealthy political machine. TCTC for now.
03/10/19 Gone Fishing
Home riding, which was Conservative for most of Harper years. They still could win but it would be a result of a complicated three way log jam.
Incumbent Kate Young is seen by many as well, not so young and not so ambitious, local paper letters to the editor are fairly critical toward her and London North Centre's Fragiskatos doing nothing in Ottawa but standing behind the golden boy smiling as they fork over money.
People don't get it but London is a small C conservative town from east to west. THAT means that if a Liberal is centrist and the Conservative is hard right, the Liberal often wins. I am not as sold the NDP candidates who have won in this town are all that far from centre not far off anyway.
London West is a little more conservative than North Centre or Fanshawe and federally is a fair bit bellwether as well.
One phenomenon I would not rule out is a three way split of the left though I am not sure the greens are as in it like the Dippers are.
Lawn signs on public spaces mean nothing but private property, I notice a lot of Liberal signs are down that were up before brownface. I also notice they are a fair distance from the doors and could pass as public space if not for houses there. The blue and orange signs are gaining ground on private property.
No idea if the PPC will siphon off many votes here but I am not sold it will.
Since I can't call the federal race yet, I lean too close to call here.
It could be that no one shows up to vote and no one cares, no real heavy hitters in the group only one with a lot of face recognition is Young and maybe the Green's perennial candidate.
03/10/19 nysuloem
I've been travelling around this riding a lot so far, and the lawn signs are about equally distributed between Liberals and Conservatives. There isn't much overt support for any other party. I will note, however, that the People's Party of Canada has been canvassing aggressively here and may draw off some Conservative support. So, I'm going to give the edge to Kate Young in a very close race!
16/08/20 A.S.
Whatever symbolism his current mayoralty holds, Ed Holder didn't have *that* much beyond the ordinary, cabinet or no cabinet, to withstand a Liberal wave as middle-suburbia-friendly as 2015's. And this is the most middle-suburban of London's ridings, so if Liberal status quo's a thing, Liberal status quo's a thing--even if said status quo surprised many by proving byelection-and-beyond amenable to the Peggy Sattler Dippers provincially...
12/06/19 seasaw
Last time, the Tories had Ed Holder, a cabinet minister and a very popular political figure, and the Liberals won big, mind you a lot of it had to do with Trudeaumania II and it was a change election. This time, the Tory candidate is nowhere near where Ed Holder was, and Kate Young has done a pretty good job. While the margin of victory may be a lot smaller, it's still going to be a Liberal hold.
22/05/19 Stephen
I agree that the provincial race here has little bearing on this year’s federal race: as noted by others, the Tories had a uniquely bad candidate, and the NDP a very strong one.
In 2015, though, the Liberals took this from a sitting Minister with excellent personal popularity- he went on to win the mayoralty last year. Their margin was better than the Liberal margin as a whole- more than ten points. This time around, the Liberals have an incumbent and the Tory candidate is not a star.
A significant NDP surge could give the Tories victory here, but I bet that the chances of that happening under the new leader are less here than with past leaders. Current polling numbers wouldn’t have that happening. And there is no chance of an NDP victory here federally. They have never come in second here at the federal level.
Absent a Liberal collapse, this will be a Liberal hold.
01/04/19 Craig
Don't read too much into 2018. Peggy Sattler is very well liked here and Andrew Lawton was a horrible candidate for London (he'd be a better fit for a deep rural riding), which explained their poor result. However, this is naturally a marginal-Liberal riding that can swing NDP or Conservative depending on national and local tides. This is a suburban riding with a mix of blue and white collar voters - sort of a ‘happy medium’ between North Centre and Fanshawe/Elgin.
If the Liberals have fallen in the polls, the CPC will likely pick this up with the help of vote splitting, but if they fall TOO far, the NDP may coalesce the progressive vote enough to win. For now, I'd give the Liberals a slight edge but it could go Conservative.
08/03/19 Sam
This riding is more friendly to the Conservatives; they won it in 2008 and on a decent night could do it again. If the Conservatives are forming government, they will probably gain this. It's also worth noting that the Conservatives actually declined in vote share here in the Provincial Election, but equally that was with Peggy Sattler running in a good NDP year. It's too early to call at this point.

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