|Even without the Mainstreet poll to buoy my sentiment, I wouldn't be so sure that a Philpott candidacy will "inevitably" lead to a split-in-the-left CPC victory. Philpott-type independents can have a funny pox-on-all-houses way of drawing voters from all camps--but also, while there's definitely a growing Chinese element, Markham-Stouffville is still the most old-stock/WASPy of the Markham ridings, and that's a demographic particularly prone to FordCon backlash (and it's a reason why it was the only Markham riding, and one of only two York Region ridings, *not* to go Ford-Tory-majority last year). And the fact that the Libs are running Jaczek, whose defeat last year was more collateral than personal, is proof they're not writing anything off in the face of Philpott.|
|Due to the split in Liberal support between the Liberal's Helena Jaczek and Independent Jane Philpott and Conservatives gaining with the Chinese-Canadian community here, Conservative pick-up will be the most likely outcome.|
|Dr. Helena Jaczek, Ontario Liberal MPP between 2007-2018, who was also a cabinet minister, is running for the Liberal nomination in Markham-Stouffville:|
|Looking at the recent polls, I concede to Dr. Bear that Philpott has little chance of keeping this seat, assuming she doesn't do anything newsworthy throughout the rest of the campaign. (I think the comparison to Mark and Pankiw was unnecessary though. Philpott is considerably more noteworthy than two Conservative backbenchers with little personal popularity running in Conservative strongholds in elections when they weren't even incumbents.)|
But let's be honest, I don't think any of us were expecting the Liberals to be leading in the recent polls here.
|You have one candidate shown for Markham - Stouffville. There is also a Conservative candidate. Mr. Theodore Antony.|
|This riding should be changed to Too Close To Call. A new Mainstreet riding poll today shows the Liberals in 1st with the Conservatives in 2nd. Philpott in 3rd:|
Liberals (35%) Conservatives (30%) Jane Philpott (19%) Green (4%) NDP (2%)
|Poll here put the Liberals, Tories and Philpott at 39/32/21 respectively. This 7-point margin is the same by which Philpott prevailed with the LPC in 2015. Liberals seem to be rebounding in Ontario thanks to Doug Ford. This isn't a sure thing for the LPC at this point, but the CPC are not the favourites. |
|This should probably be moved back to TCTC, as the riding poll shows Liberals actually leading.|
Mainstreet May 29-30 riding poll:
|If it is in my humble opinion, Jane Philpott has a great shot at keeping this riding. Though this is a traditionally Conservative riding, the Conservative Party has the trouble of Doug Ford and provincial approval is quite low for them in Ontario. Liberals will see her as a moral option to vote for, more moderate conservatives will look at her as a more appealing option to Andrew Scheer, and she'll get people who didn't vote last time to come out in the polls- which to me is the largest factor.|
That being said, it's not a cakewalk. The Conservatives are strong here. It should be marked To Close to Call though.
|Given an already strong Conservative base of support, I would portend that Philpott not running again would by itself be likely to make this a prime conservative target; for Philpott to split the vote as an independent I think would surely make the Conservatives the favourite. There's nowhere but up to go for the NDP, Greens, and the Independent campaign of Jane Philpott. Given Tory polling in Ontario I would think it's fairly reasonable to assume they are the favourites here at the moment given the local dynamics. |
Philpott doesn't have a snowball's chance at doing anything other than playing spoiler. I doubt she'll get more than 20% of the vote and quite frankly I don't think she'll even get that much.
|Today Jane Philpott announced that she'll be running as an Independent and she's going to win as an Independent. She'll take the bulk of the Liberal vote, as well as votes from the CPC, Green and NDP, that's going to be enough votes to ensure victory.|
|With Ms. Philpott running as an independent now, the centre-left will be utterly fragmented and the Tories will easily slip up the middle. She will probably even peel off some Tory votes, but not enough to win or to prevent a Tory win.|
|Philpott announced today that she will be running as an Independent. In this Liberal-Conservative swing riding it will probably be tough to win as an Independent, but perhaps the pollsters will conduct riding polls to determine support levels here.|
|In response to Islanders comments: you want a now-forgotten cabinet minister who was kicked out of their party for a scandal that affected the party, had the support of the opposition, ran as an independent and lost? Here's a name for you: Helena Guergis.|
As for the notion that conservative voters would feel sorry for Jane, say awww, and vote for her as an independent is just ridiculous. That's like saying NDP voters out west will vote for Inky Mark in 2015, or Jim Pankiw in 2011 to defeat the CPC. Conservative voters will see an opportunity to win back this seat and will stick with the CPC. As for the Liberal vote, it will get split (Jane getting about 15%) and the CPC gains a seat.
|I disagree with Dr. Bear and Sam that Philpott is comparable to now-forgotten party rejects. In all of the cases mentioned here where someone resigned or was ejected from their party and lost as an independent - Andrews, Perrault, Rathgeber, Fortin and Núñez-Melo - were all rejected because of small personal scandals and none of them were ever cabinet ministers, let alone high-profile ones. Philpott on the other hand has served in two different cabinet positions and is involved in a large scandal that is currently affecting the government, and was defended by practically the entire opposition when she was ejected from the Liberal caucus, so I don't think these comparisons are fair at all. If she runs as an independent, I don't think it's unfair to say that she still has a good shot at keeping her seat, as I'd expect even some Conservative voters to support her to an extent, and much of her previous Liberal support would stay with her. If she runs for the NDP or Greens however, I'd expect her to make gains for either party, but she won't win, as the NDP appears to have a low ceiling here and I'd understand if voters had skepticism towards a Green run here.|
Basically, if Philpott runs as an independent, I think she has a good shot at keeping this. In any other scenario, the Conservatives should pick this up.
|I have to disagree with Kumar on this, though I still believe that if Dr Philpott runs as an independent, she's got a shot( remember this riding elected an Independent Tony Roman in 1984), don't think the Liberals have a shot here. They've pretty much shot themselves in the foot here, unless there is a major Liberal surge, which is possible. The riding was close the last time and the way things look now, it's going to be a CPC pick up.|
|There are numerous more examples I can add to what Dr Bear said, Jose Nunez-Melo ran as a Green last time and performed awfully, Jean-Francois Fortin founded SiD and did pretty well, but still had no chance of winning. Independents like Bill Casey and John Nunziata won because they were arguably sticking up for their constituents, not because of a scandal like this. If Philpott runs, this goes blue. If not, this is closer, but the Conservatives have the edge, and I don't think anyone could be confident about a Liberal win here.|
|Look...everyone doesn't love Jane! No, she will not win as an independent. If she tries, she'll be an addition to the ranks of the many now-forgotten ejected party members who tried and failed to keep thier seat (examples from 2015 include Scott Andrews, Manon Perreault and Brent Rathgeber) She'll need the backing of another party, but this riding is not friendly towards the NDP or the Greens. As she has indicate that she plans to run in October, I think she will (pulling a Bruce Hyer and run under the Green banner...that's just my hypothesis and is speculative) and will take away enough Liberal votes to ensure a Conservative victory in this riding.|
|If Philpott runs as a New Democrat, Green or Independent, the Conservatives will win this riding. If Philpott bows out it will be a toss-up. Markham Stouffville is more Liberal-friendly than Markham Unionville.|
|Things got a whole lot more interesting. The Hon. Dr Jane Philpott's no longer a Liberal. Don't know if she's going to run or not, if she does she's got a good shot of getting re-elected. In any case, it's going to be hard for the Liberals to keep this seat.|
|If Jane Philpott runs as an independent (which seems most likely), I expect she'd get a lot of Conservative voters over to her side and she'd return to Ottawa. That will more than offset any losses from hardcore Trudeau Liberals in this suburban swing riding. Remember that Paul Calandra is not an option either (he's in Queens Park right now).|
If Philpott does NOT run at all, or runs as a Liberal (both are much less likely scenarios), I'm going to guess Conservative pickup. This seat is not going red after all that has happened (it was marginal as it was), since the party brand has been tarnished. This may be an affluent riding, but it is a riding of ambition, not elitism. For now, I'll call it an Independent hold.
|I have to disagree with you there Seesaw. As this brouhaha has played itself out I feel that Philpott has been playing the electorate for suckers. Providing tidbits of information and not coming full forward with information. There are some that are going to see this scandal as being blown out of proportion by a trio of mean girls who have it in for the Prime Minister (Jody, Celina and Jane). If it pans out that way, there will be Liberal voters who will never vote for Philpott again (protest by voting another party or staying home). In a close race, these disgruntled liberal voters could end Philpott's political career quickly.|
|Not a lost cause for the Liberals by any means, and any resources diverted away from Jane Philpott are offset by her personal strength, but this is still one of the more marginal ridings and so it's not beyond either of the two main parties.|
|It maybe a bit premature, but I believe The Hon. Dr. Jane Philpott's resignation, thus distancing herself from Mr. Trudeau, will work to her advantage|