Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-05-15 20:47:00

Constituency Profile



Jane Philpott

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



282.59 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jane Philpott 2941649.20%
Paul Calandra ** 2556542.80%
Gregory Hines 36476.10%
Myles O'Brien 11451.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4060.86%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (90.7% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Paul Calandra 2591248.12%
Helena Jaczek * 1400726.01%
Kingsley Kwok 1099720.42%
Jose Etcheverry 21534%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7121.67%

14/05/19 seasaw
I have to disagree with Kumar on this, though I still believe that if Dr Philpott runs as an independent, she's got a shot( remember this riding elected an Independent Tony Roman in 1984), don't think the Liberals have a shot here. They've pretty much shot themselves in the foot here, unless there is a major Liberal surge, which is possible. The riding was close the last time and the way things look now, it's going to be a CPC pick up.
14/05/19 Sam
There are numerous more examples I can add to what Dr Bear said, Jose Nunez-Melo ran as a Green last time and performed awfully, Jean-Francois Fortin founded SiD and did pretty well, but still had no chance of winning. Independents like Bill Casey and John Nunziata won because they were arguably sticking up for their constituents, not because of a scandal like this. If Philpott runs, this goes blue. If not, this is closer, but the Conservatives have the edge, and I don't think anyone could be confident about a Liberal win here.
09/05/19 Dr Bear
Look...everyone doesn't love Jane! No, she will not win as an independent. If she tries, she'll be an addition to the ranks of the many now-forgotten ejected party members who tried and failed to keep thier seat (examples from 2015 include Scott Andrews, Manon Perreault and Brent Rathgeber) She'll need the backing of another party, but this riding is not friendly towards the NDP or the Greens. As she has indicate that she plans to run in October, I think she will (pulling a Bruce Hyer and run under the Green banner...that's just my hypothesis and is speculative) and will take away enough Liberal votes to ensure a Conservative victory in this riding.
15/04/19 Kumar Patel
If Philpott runs as a New Democrat, Green or Independent, the Conservatives will win this riding. If Philpott bows out it will be a toss-up. Markham Stouffville is more ‘Liberal-friendly’ than Markham Unionville.
02/04/19 seasaw
Things got a whole lot more interesting. The Hon. Dr Jane Philpott's no longer a Liberal. Don't know if she's going to run or not, if she does she's got a good shot of getting re-elected. In any case, it's going to be hard for the Liberals to keep this seat.
01/04/19 Craig
If Jane Philpott runs as an independent (which seems most likely), I expect she'd get a lot of Conservative voters over to her side and she'd return to Ottawa. That will more than offset any losses from hardcore Trudeau Liberals in this suburban swing riding. Remember that Paul Calandra is not an option either (he's in Queens Park right now).
If Philpott does NOT run at all, or runs as a Liberal (both are much less likely scenarios), I'm going to guess Conservative pickup. This seat is not going red after all that has happened (it was marginal as it was), since the party brand has been tarnished. This may be an affluent riding, but it is a riding of ambition, not elitism. For now, I'll call it an Independent hold.
26/03/19 Dr.Bear
I have to disagree with you there Seesaw. As this brouhaha has played itself out I feel that Philpott has been playing the electorate for suckers. Providing tidbits of information and not coming full forward with information. There are some that are going to see this scandal as being blown out of proportion by a trio of mean girls who have it in for the Prime Minister (Jody, Celina and Jane). If it pans out that way, there will be Liberal voters who will never vote for Philpott again (protest by voting another party or staying home). In a close race, these disgruntled liberal voters could end Philpott's political career quickly.
26/03/19 Sam
Not a lost cause for the Liberals by any means, and any resources diverted away from Jane Philpott are offset by her personal strength, but this is still one of the more marginal ridings and so it's not beyond either of the two main parties.
04/03/19 seasaw
It maybe a bit premature, but I believe The Hon. Dr. Jane Philpott's resignation, thus distancing herself from Mr. Trudeau, will work to her advantage

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