Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:37

Constituency Profile


Antony, Theodore

Berman, Hal

Jaczek, Helena

Lin, Jeremy

Long, Roy

Philpott, Jane


Jane Philpott

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



282.59 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jane Philpott 2941649.20%
Paul Calandra ** 2556542.80%
Gregory Hines 36476.10%
Myles O'Brien 11451.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4060.86%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (90.7% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Paul Calandra 2591248.12%
Helena Jaczek * 1400726.01%
Kingsley Kwok 1099720.42%
Jose Etcheverry 21534%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7121.67%

20/10/19 R.O.
This is still one of those ridings which is very hard to predict in my view. Jane Philpott has still made a reasonably strong run as an independent and maintains a strong profile. But its tough to get elected as an independent especially in the GTA. The conservatives have run a reasonably strong campaign in York region and Scheer held his final Ontario campaign event at a large rally in nearby Richmond Hill. Its also unclear how many people will vote ndp or green here , both of which typically run weak campaigns in this area. not sure if any party leaders campaigned in the riding , Trudeau was in Markham Unionville but not sure he came to this riding.
20/10/19 Tony Ducey
I wonder how the Phillpott effect will affect things in this riding. There were many who thought her to be Trudeau's best minister. I think the Liberals candidae choice here will work to their advantage and they'll win this seat.
19/10/19 The Jackal
I have to call this one for the CPC as momentum is in their favour. Not to mention a possible vote split between The Liberal candidate and Philippe.
13/10/19 PY
Soon after Jane Philpott's press conference in which she declared her intention to run as an independent, the Liberal central campaign had said it was going to vigorously contest this riding and Vancouver Granville. They came through in the former with the nomination of former provincial health minister Helena Jaczek (though maybe not so much with former North Vancouver candidate Taleb Noormohamed in the latter).
I understand that Andrew Scheer had to go to bat for Philpott (as well as JWR), but I think he made a strategic error here in not delaying the CPC nomination meeting in order to secure a better candidate. And sure enough, Peter MacKay may be preparing for another leadership bid, according to a recent Globe and Mail article. There was an outside chance that the CPC could take this, but I think Theodore Antony's dead in the water at this point.
As for Jane Philpott, the only thing that might save her is any goodwill she had accumulated during her stint at Markham-Stouffville Hospital. Otherwise, buyer's remorse after Jaczek's loss provincially has likely set in here.
Oh, how the world works in mysterious ways...Paul Calandra goes from MP to MPP (currently serving as the House Leader, go figure) and Helena Jaczek potentially goes from MPP to MP (future role within the LPC caucus TBD).
06/10/19 MF
Unlike in Vancouver-Granville, the Conservatives certainly can win in Markham-Stouffville, so Jane Philpott won't be able to count on as many votes from anti-Trudeau Conservatives. The Liberals are running former MPP Dr. Helen Jaczek - who likely cuts into Dr. Philpott's appeal as well. Hard to say if it will go Liberal or Conservative.
02/10/19 Nolan
Liberals will most likely hold this riding because suburbs north of Toronto are basically just a 2 party race so the Liberals will hold this easily even though a strong independent is running Liberals will still win.
My prediciton
Liberal 40
Conservative 32
Philpott 19
Green 5
27/09/19 R.O.
This is a tough one to predict , Jane Philpott is a high profile independent mp but only held this riding for 1 term. Her liberal opponent is Helena Jaczek a former Ontario liberal mpp for the same riding who lost her seat in the last provincial election. The riding also has a strong conservative presence however former mp Paul Calandra is now the mpp and Theodore Anthony is the new candidate. Philpott faces tough odds to get back in, as there is strong liberal and conservative bases of support in the riding. Also ndp and green candidates on the ballot which makes it even harder for her to hold onto this one.
26/09/19 Kris
I wish it weren’t the case, but there is no way the Conservative vote is dipping below 40% in this riding (they hit higher than that when they came in 2nd in 2015).
I can’t see Philpott exceeding that 40% as an Indy, nor the Liberals this time around, even if all non-Tory voterd decides to rally around one of them.
The remaining parties are inconsequential to the outcome if their past numbers are repeated.
A clear Tory win here.
08/08/20 A.S.
Even without the Mainstreet poll to buoy my sentiment, I wouldn't be so sure that a Philpott candidacy will "inevitably" lead to a split-in-the-left CPC victory. Philpott-type independents can have a funny pox-on-all-houses way of drawing voters from all camps--but also, while there's definitely a growing Chinese element, Markham-Stouffville is still the most old-stock/WASPy of the Markham ridings, and that's a demographic particularly prone to FordCon backlash (and it's a reason why it was the only Markham riding, and one of only two York Region ridings, *not* to go Ford-Tory-majority last year). And the fact that the Libs are running Jaczek, whose defeat last year was more collateral than personal, is proof they're not writing anything off in the face of Philpott.
04/08/20 The_A_Man33
Due to the split in Liberal support between the Liberal's Helena Jaczek and Independent Jane Philpott and Conservatives gaining with the Chinese-Canadian community here, Conservative pick-up will be the most likely outcome.
14/07/19 Marco Ricci
Dr. Helena Jaczek, Ontario Liberal MPP between 2007-2018, who was also a cabinet minister, is running for the Liberal nomination in Markham-Stouffville:
12/06/19 Islander
Looking at the recent polls, I concede to Dr. Bear that Philpott has little chance of keeping this seat, assuming she doesn't do anything newsworthy throughout the rest of the campaign. (I think the comparison to Mark and Pankiw was unnecessary though. Philpott is considerably more noteworthy than two Conservative backbenchers with little personal popularity running in Conservative strongholds in elections when they weren't even incumbents.)
But let's be honest, I don't think any of us were expecting the Liberals to be leading in the recent polls here.
12/06/19 Paul M
You have one candidate shown for Markham - Stouffville. There is also a Conservative candidate. Mr. Theodore Antony.
06/06/19 Marco Ricci
This riding should be changed to Too Close To Call. A new Mainstreet riding poll today shows the Liberals in 1st with the Conservatives in 2nd. Philpott in 3rd:
Liberals (35%) Conservatives (30%) Jane Philpott (19%) Green (4%) NDP (2%)
06/06/19 South Islander
Poll here put the Liberals, Tories and Philpott at 39/32/21 respectively. This 7-point margin is the same by which Philpott prevailed with the LPC in 2015. Liberals seem to be rebounding in Ontario thanks to Doug Ford. This isn't a sure thing for the LPC at this point, but the CPC are not the favourites.
06/06/19 JH
This should probably be moved back to TCTC, as the riding poll shows Liberals actually leading.
Mainstreet May 29-30 riding poll:
Lib 35%
Cons 30%
Philpott 19%
Green 4%
NDP 2%
03/06/19 Cookie
If it is in my humble opinion, Jane Philpott has a great shot at keeping this riding. Though this is a traditionally Conservative riding, the Conservative Party has the trouble of Doug Ford and provincial approval is quite low for them in Ontario. Liberals will see her as a moral option to vote for, more moderate conservatives will look at her as a more appealing option to Andrew Scheer, and she'll get people who didn't vote last time to come out in the polls- which to me is the largest factor.
That being said, it's not a cakewalk. The Conservatives are strong here. It should be marked To Close to Call though.
29/05/19 Laurence Putnam
Given an already strong Conservative base of support, I would portend that Philpott not running again would by itself be likely to make this a prime conservative target; for Philpott to split the vote as an independent I think would surely make the Conservatives the favourite. There's nowhere but up to go for the NDP, Greens, and the Independent campaign of Jane Philpott. Given Tory polling in Ontario I would think it's fairly reasonable to assume they are the favourites here at the moment given the local dynamics.
Philpott doesn't have a snowball's chance at doing anything other than playing spoiler. I doubt she'll get more than 20% of the vote and quite frankly I don't think she'll even get that much.
28/05/19 seasaw
Today Jane Philpott announced that she'll be running as an Independent and she's going to win as an Independent. She'll take the bulk of the Liberal vote, as well as votes from the CPC, Green and NDP, that's going to be enough votes to ensure victory.
27/05/19 Jacopo Peterman
With Ms. Philpott running as an independent now, the centre-left will be utterly fragmented and the Tories will easily slip up the middle. She will probably even peel off some Tory votes, but not enough to win or to prevent a Tory win.
27/05/19 Marco Ricci
Philpott announced today that she will be running as an Independent. In this Liberal-Conservative swing riding it will probably be tough to win as an Independent, but perhaps the pollsters will conduct riding polls to determine support levels here.
22/05/19 Dr. Bear
In response to Islanders comments: you want a now-forgotten cabinet minister who was kicked out of their party for a scandal that affected the party, had the support of the opposition, ran as an independent and lost? Here's a name for you: Helena Guergis.
As for the notion that conservative voters would feel sorry for Jane, say ‘awww’, and vote for her as an independent is just ridiculous. That's like saying NDP voters out west will vote for Inky Mark in 2015, or Jim Pankiw in 2011 to defeat the CPC. Conservative voters will see an opportunity to win back this seat and will stick with the CPC. As for the Liberal vote, it will get split (Jane getting about 15%) and the CPC gains a seat.
18/05/19 Islander
I disagree with Dr. Bear and Sam that Philpott is comparable to ‘now-forgotten party rejects’. In all of the cases mentioned here where someone resigned or was ejected from their party and lost as an independent - Andrews, Perrault, Rathgeber, Fortin and Núñez-Melo - were all rejected because of small personal scandals and none of them were ever cabinet ministers, let alone high-profile ones. Philpott on the other hand has served in two different cabinet positions and is involved in a large scandal that is currently affecting the government, and was defended by practically the entire opposition when she was ejected from the Liberal caucus, so I don't think these comparisons are fair at all. If she runs as an independent, I don't think it's unfair to say that she still has a good shot at keeping her seat, as I'd expect even some Conservative voters to support her to an extent, and much of her previous Liberal support would stay with her. If she runs for the NDP or Greens however, I'd expect her to make gains for either party, but she won't win, as the NDP appears to have a low ceiling here and I'd understand if voters had skepticism towards a Green run here.
Basically, if Philpott runs as an independent, I think she has a good shot at keeping this. In any other scenario, the Conservatives should pick this up.
14/05/19 seasaw
I have to disagree with Kumar on this, though I still believe that if Dr Philpott runs as an independent, she's got a shot( remember this riding elected an Independent Tony Roman in 1984), don't think the Liberals have a shot here. They've pretty much shot themselves in the foot here, unless there is a major Liberal surge, which is possible. The riding was close the last time and the way things look now, it's going to be a CPC pick up.
14/05/19 Sam
There are numerous more examples I can add to what Dr Bear said, Jose Nunez-Melo ran as a Green last time and performed awfully, Jean-Francois Fortin founded SiD and did pretty well, but still had no chance of winning. Independents like Bill Casey and John Nunziata won because they were arguably sticking up for their constituents, not because of a scandal like this. If Philpott runs, this goes blue. If not, this is closer, but the Conservatives have the edge, and I don't think anyone could be confident about a Liberal win here.
09/05/19 Dr Bear
Look...everyone doesn't love Jane! No, she will not win as an independent. If she tries, she'll be an addition to the ranks of the many now-forgotten ejected party members who tried and failed to keep thier seat (examples from 2015 include Scott Andrews, Manon Perreault and Brent Rathgeber) She'll need the backing of another party, but this riding is not friendly towards the NDP or the Greens. As she has indicate that she plans to run in October, I think she will (pulling a Bruce Hyer and run under the Green banner...that's just my hypothesis and is speculative) and will take away enough Liberal votes to ensure a Conservative victory in this riding.
15/04/19 Kumar Patel
If Philpott runs as a New Democrat, Green or Independent, the Conservatives will win this riding. If Philpott bows out it will be a toss-up. Markham Stouffville is more ‘Liberal-friendly’ than Markham Unionville.
02/04/19 seasaw
Things got a whole lot more interesting. The Hon. Dr Jane Philpott's no longer a Liberal. Don't know if she's going to run or not, if she does she's got a good shot of getting re-elected. In any case, it's going to be hard for the Liberals to keep this seat.
01/04/19 Craig
If Jane Philpott runs as an independent (which seems most likely), I expect she'd get a lot of Conservative voters over to her side and she'd return to Ottawa. That will more than offset any losses from hardcore Trudeau Liberals in this suburban swing riding. Remember that Paul Calandra is not an option either (he's in Queens Park right now).
If Philpott does NOT run at all, or runs as a Liberal (both are much less likely scenarios), I'm going to guess Conservative pickup. This seat is not going red after all that has happened (it was marginal as it was), since the party brand has been tarnished. This may be an affluent riding, but it is a riding of ambition, not elitism. For now, I'll call it an Independent hold.
26/03/19 Dr.Bear
I have to disagree with you there Seesaw. As this brouhaha has played itself out I feel that Philpott has been playing the electorate for suckers. Providing tidbits of information and not coming full forward with information. There are some that are going to see this scandal as being blown out of proportion by a trio of mean girls who have it in for the Prime Minister (Jody, Celina and Jane). If it pans out that way, there will be Liberal voters who will never vote for Philpott again (protest by voting another party or staying home). In a close race, these disgruntled liberal voters could end Philpott's political career quickly.
26/03/19 Sam
Not a lost cause for the Liberals by any means, and any resources diverted away from Jane Philpott are offset by her personal strength, but this is still one of the more marginal ridings and so it's not beyond either of the two main parties.
04/03/19 seasaw
It maybe a bit premature, but I believe The Hon. Dr. Jane Philpott's resignation, thus distancing herself from Mr. Trudeau, will work to her advantage

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