Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-25 20:59:55

Constituency Profile


Raitt, Lisa

van Koeverden, Adam


Lisa Raitt

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



446.55 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Lisa Raitt ** 2237845.40%
Azim Rizvee 1994040.40%
Alex Anabusi 536610.90%
Mini Batra 11312.30%
Chris Jewell 4931.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1270.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Parm Gill 1824941.67%
Indira Naidoo-Harris * 1306429.83%
Brendan Smyth 974022.24%
Eleanor Hayward 22005.02%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4371.35%

12/04/19 Sam
Liberal strength here provincially is more likely to do with the high profile of Indira Naidoo-Harris. Lisa Raitt has an even higher profile, and, although this was a riding Liberals could have taken last time, she won by 5%, a margin that I only expect to grow.
04/04/19 Chris N
With Raitt hanging on during the Trudeau wave in 2015, it's hard to see her seat threatened with a completely different political landscape in 2019, even against an Olympic medalist. Milton seems like the perfect riding for the modern Conservative Party: a sprawling, car-dependent suburb, with a growing immigrant community and a few remnants of Main Street, small town Ontario. Raitt wins in October.
04/03/19 Random Voter
Lisa Raitt is now the Deputy CPC Leader, so has remained a high-profile MP this term as a result. The Liberals may be running Olympian Adam van Koeverden, but he's paddling upstream in this race.
Conservative hold.
03/03/19 MF
Since Lisa Raitt survived the red wave of 2015, I think she will be re-elected this year unless the Tories completely go off the rails.
24/02/19 seasaw
For Lisa Raitt to lose here, it would require a major red wave, and at the moment, I can't see it happening, sure the Liberals have a high profile candidate, but he is likely to finish with the silver medal here
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Toss up. Could be one of the few Liberal pick ups outside of Quebec.
The demographics of Milton has changed quite a bit over the last 15 years. It will likely vote the way the some of hte Mississauga ridings will vote.
Lisa Raitt is a popular incumbent, but the Liberals are fielding a star candidate with Adam van Koeverden.

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