Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:51

Constituency Profile


Dastur, Percy

Hassan, Farina

Hayward, Eleanor

Raitt, Lisa

van Koeverden, Adam


Lisa Raitt

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



446.55 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Lisa Raitt ** 2237845.40%
Azim Rizvee 1994040.40%
Alex Anabusi 536610.90%
Mini Batra 11312.30%
Chris Jewell 4931.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1270.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Parm Gill 1824941.67%
Indira Naidoo-Harris * 1306429.83%
Brendan Smyth 974022.24%
Eleanor Hayward 22005.02%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4371.35%

AVK has an unbelievably good ground game and voter contact operation. Hardest working local candidate in the election that I'm aware of. Liberal pick up.
20/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the Liberals win a close 1 here. Name recognition will help here. Raitt seems to be over the top sometimes, I think that will cost her this election.
19/10/19 R.O.
There was an updated mainstreet poll which said this riding remained a close race between the cpc and liberals. Trudeau also made a final campaign stop in this riding to campaign with Adam Van Koeverden. If your wondering why Scheer never came to the riding which would seem like an obvious stop on his tour as he was often in Toronto area, believe that I read an article where Lisa Raitt was quoted as saying she wasn’t asking for one and was just going to focus on her own campaign. This riding will remain close like it was in 2015, but I still think Raitt holds the riding.
10/10/19 Nick M.
Only thing that makes me hesitant that it's a lock for the conservatives, is that the PC's didn't get over 50% in the last provincial election.
Strong MP. Survived Justin Mania in 2015.
08/10/19 Mizisuga
Too close to call. The only poll conducted is a week old and only gives AVK a 1 point lead. Ford is not nearly as unpopular as some seem to assume here, and the successful deal to prevent the CUPE strike is bound to influence voters to some extent. Raitt is a well known and respected MP, and just because Milton has been growing, doesn't AVK is ensured to win this race.
06/10/19 Nolan
This riding will be a Liberal pickup but not by much considering this riding does have a respected MP but also a riding that is becoming more suburban which will be very interesting and like many other GTA ridings is two horse race.
NDP- 8
Green- 6
03/10/19 Daniel
Mainstreet Poll has Adam @vankayak with a 1 point lead. Narrow margin, but will be a nail bitter on election night, hardly a Conservative lock, which doesn't bode well for them in the rest of the region if they're loosing Raitt who used to be moderate until she went to the hard right.
28/09/19 Political Junkie
Not sure how this riding is being put in the CPC column. Not only are the LPC leading across the GTA but AVK is a well known household name due to his Olympic record and he’s been canvassing the riding for close to a year while Raitt has been MIA. At best it’s too close to call but I’m giving the edge to AVK due to his fame and his hard working of this riding. It’ll be close but he’ll win.
28/09/19 KT
Demographics have shifted hugely in Milton since 2015. Huge developments in the south were fields then. Riding resembles Mississauga more and more. Liberal candidate is very strong and working hard, NDP is invisible and doesn't have signs up let alone a campaign office so will be less vote splitting.
19/09/19 R.O.
Milton is a growing and changing riding but I have little doubt Lisa Raitt will get re-elected , she is well respected in Ottawa and has served this riding since 2008 . I personally could not imagine what parliament hill would be like without her, she was a star of question period.
14/09/19 DurhamDave
Milton will be one of THE ridings to watch during the campaign. Out of all the high profile Conservatives, Raitt is the most likely to lose her seat. I'm honestly surprised that we haven't seen a riding poll yet.
The Liberals are polling well in Ontario, and do not underestimate AVK. He's been doorknocking for months and he's a solid campaigner. I could see him in the Tourism or Culture Cabinet positions if the LPC is re-elected. But voters here could want to see Raitt in Cabinet if the CPC form government.
As for the NDP, they finally have their candidate here, but she got a late start against two well known opponents. The NDP is not doing as well in Ontario as they did in 2015 so it's worth asking where those votes will go.
TCTC until we get a poll. If the Ontario polling stays where it is until election day, then I expect a very close race here, but anything can happen during a campaign.
11/08/20 A.S.
I agree that "star candidates" like AVK tend to be overrated (or at least, they make for overwrought pitches)--but face it; Milton was a rare GTA "one that got away" for the Libs in 2015, it's fairly clear that they "undernominated" in 2015, and the electoral-demographic trajectory's working in their 2015-barometer favour, so who can blame them? Strike while the iron is hot. And while her surviving 2015 gives Raitt a not-unearned added cast of "strength", her current status as a paragon of the Cons' moderate-mainstream "Bay Street" wing is, in its way, just as overwrought-pitch-prone (as her leadership-race underperformance proved). So if Raitt hangs on, it'll more likely be an electoral-status-quo thing than a measure of her and AVK's respective strengths and demerits.
27/07/19 B
This Riding should go solid conservative. When the liberal candidate only campaigns on his past Olympic experience and anti Doug Ford The people of Milton are smarter then that - the margin of victory should be larger then 2015. Increased national exposure for the conservative candidate will make her extremely hard to beat. This should be an easy conservative win over another of JT’s high profile hopefuls with no political background
05/07/19 Fred
What a difference two weeks makes. The previous poster underestimates how unpopular Ford is and the last two weeks have seen his numbers drop like a stone. CON's are running scared in Ontario and trying to distance themselves from Ford. Seeing all of Doug's friends and friends of friends on the GRAVY TRAIN have angered the voters. This riding will swing Liberal as voters don't trust Ford and Sheer is just to weak and afraid of Ford to stand up to him. So they don't want to give Ford a blank chq.
02/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I always find it a bit bizarre when partisans go nuts about ‘star candidates’ who; when you look at them up close aren't really bona fide stars so much as they're vaguely recognizable people you're going to react to like: ‘Oh yeah, that guy!’
Is this really a ‘star’? I'm sure Liberals will all agree that yes he absolutely is but I would retort by asking who won the medal for Canada in women's cross cross cycling in Rio? If you don't immediately know, it doesn't really do well to prove the point that there's some serious ‘star power’ here. I can think of dozens of ‘star’ candidates with higher name recognition than this candidate who went down in flames, from Lewis MacKenzie, Larry Smith, Michael Byers, Tom King, Linda McQuaig to fellow medalist Ross Rebagliati, etc., etc. the list goes on. (I know Rebagliati dropped out but who here seriously believes he would have won?)
I guess it's not a lot different than the Hollywood assumption that if Katy Perry goes on the campaign trail for Hillary Clinton it will result in a Democratic landslide. Yet time and again this notion is proven false: people don't care; most people separate their politics from their entertainment preferences (as so they should).
This is nothing against Van Koeverden by the way; maybe he has a lot to offer as a candidate. He may very well have all the talents to be a fantastic MP. It's just a general rant about ‘star candidates’ and the assumption that olympic medal in 2004 (something I had to look this up) = 2019 election win.
In any event, Raitt is well known, highly recognized and an effective legislator who is also leadership material. Any other plain old backbench MP and I might be inclined to say the odds are closer to 50/50 but Raitt, who has an Olympic-grade compete level politically, should be pretty solid here.
16/06/19 Craig
One thing often forgotten is that Milton is probably the fastest growing riding in Ontario, if not Canada. There will be many voters here that didn't live here in 2015. The new voters may recognize Adam van Koeverden more than Lisa Raitt, which may tilt the playing field in their favour. With today's demographics, Milton likely would have joined the rest of the western GTA going Liberal in 2015.
That said, Raitt is a very strong incumbent, and would likely be back in cabinet if she is re-elected and the Conservatives form government. However, she'll need a stronger federal result for the CPC to be re-elected, given the population growth and strong LPC candidate. Hence, I'd consider Milton a tossup, and one of the very few pickup opportunities for the LPC outside Quebec.
16/06/19 seasaw
Contrary to what the previous poster mentioned, this election is not likely to be a referendum on Doug Ford, it's more likely going to be a referendum on Justin Trudeau and his numbers don't look good right now. Lisa Raitt has represented the riding for 11 years now and yes, the last time was closer than expected, but there was a red wave the last time. Adam Vankoeverden may make things competitive, but not enough to win.
14/06/19 Fred
Last time local liberals were very unhappy with the candidate and most sat on their hands. This time the party is unified behind the candidate. As well Combine that with the hatred of dumb doug ford and this riding turns red.
08/06/19 I Love Canada!
Two high profile candidates in a 50-50 environment make this a battle between Liberals and Conservatives.
12/04/19 Sam
Liberal strength here provincially is more likely to do with the high profile of Indira Naidoo-Harris. Lisa Raitt has an even higher profile, and, although this was a riding Liberals could have taken last time, she won by 5%, a margin that I only expect to grow.
04/04/19 Chris N
With Raitt hanging on during the Trudeau wave in 2015, it's hard to see her seat threatened with a completely different political landscape in 2019, even against an Olympic medalist. Milton seems like the perfect riding for the modern Conservative Party: a sprawling, car-dependent suburb, with a growing immigrant community and a few remnants of Main Street, small town Ontario. Raitt wins in October.
04/03/19 Random Voter
Lisa Raitt is now the Deputy CPC Leader, so has remained a high-profile MP this term as a result. The Liberals may be running Olympian Adam van Koeverden, but he's paddling upstream in this race.
Conservative hold.
03/03/19 MF
Since Lisa Raitt survived the red wave of 2015, I think she will be re-elected this year unless the Tories completely go off the rails.
24/02/19 seasaw
For Lisa Raitt to lose here, it would require a major red wave, and at the moment, I can't see it happening, sure the Liberals have a high profile candidate, but he is likely to finish with the silver medal here
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Toss up. Could be one of the few Liberal pick ups outside of Quebec.
The demographics of Milton has changed quite a bit over the last 15 years. It will likely vote the way the some of hte Mississauga ridings will vote.
Lisa Raitt is a popular incumbent, but the Liberals are fielding a star candidate with Adam van Koeverden.

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