Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:02

Constituency Profile


Ambler, Stella

Darby, Carlton

Laughton, Adam

Spengemann, Sven

Trentelman, Cynthia

Vizitiu, Eugen


Sven Spengemann

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



59.90 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sven Spengemann 2827947.70%
Stella Ambler ** 2443541.20%
Eric Guerbilsky 47358.00%
Ariana Burgener 13972.40%
Paul Woodworth 3160.50%
Dagmar Sullivan 1110.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1960.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Mississauga South
   (94.69% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.31% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Rudolph Cuzzetto 2252042.33%
Charles Sousa * 1863635.03%
Boris Rosolak 973518.3%
Lloyd Jones 15722.95%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10102.19%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Surprised this riding is listed as Liberal. I think it should be TCTC at least. My prediction is a slight victory for the CPC here tomorrow.
19/10/19 Nick M.
If CPC winning sign war (according to previous poster) when CPC traditionally doesn’t bother with a ground game (according to me), then this should be a good indication this is going CPC.
More data released by Campaign Research, Mayor of Toronto’s pollster (past not sure about present), and it shows CPC are winning the Eastern 905 popular vote.
If they are winning this region in general, than at least one seat will fall CPC. Why not this one?
08/10/19 Mizisuga
Still holding to my CPC call, though it will be a close vote. Ambler definitely won the sign war, and the provincial PCs are not nearly as unpopular as in Toronto proper. Stella has been busy campaigning hard, and she will likely be rewarded for this on election day.
07/10/19 R.O.
This riding has typically seen close liberal/conservative races, this year seems to be no different. Former cpc mp Stella Ambler is back as the conservative candidate and trying to recapture the riding she held briefly after 2011 election. Type of riding that likely won’t be decided until final week.
07/08/20 A.S.
With Lavalingate fading from view, Conservative reversion seems less likely now than earlier in the year; and even apart from the personal Sousa (or Szabo) factor, Lakeshore is less electorally distinct from the rest of Mississauga than it once might have seemed--or at least, the "affluent Conservative" heart of Lorne Park et al has proven capable of containment a la Forest Hill or Rosedale. But that contained core still makes it the Con-likeliest seat in Mississauga, gentrification down Port Credit way and beyond notwithstanding.
07/07/19 seasaw
@Craig, first off you never compare provincial election results with federal ones, the two are totally different animals, second, you keep referring to right wing populism, which is a term used by the media to describe Trump style policies and now they've lumped Ford into it as well, and that is supposed to be the opposite of extreme globalism. We haven't even seen Mr Scheer's platform, nor do we know what the next campaign is going to be about. The candidates in this riding are both strong, experienced, constituency people and either one can win, we just have to see who's doing better in the final week. TCTC, for now
29/05/19 Craig
Of the Mississauga seats, this is definitely the most affluent, and normally the best for the Conservatives. However, in this era of right-populism, that may not hold up well as this is more of an ‘elitist’ riding, especially as you approach Lake Ontario. After all, this was the best riding in Mississauga for the Liberals in 2018 (with the help of Charles Sousa) which they only narrowly lost in a terrible election for them.
That said, Sven Spengemann is no Charles Sousa. Hence, the name advantage isn't there, but the federal Liberals haven't even come close to dropping to the lows of Kathleen Wynne. For those reasons, I'd give the advantage to the LPC despite history suggesting otherwise.
27/04/19 Sam
Whilst this has become a Liberal area, it does seem as if it will revert back to the Conservatives. Charles Sousa lost despite everything in his favour (other than his party) and it would take only a small swing to return Stella Ambler back to Ottawa. Given the trends we are seeing, a Conservative gain seems the most likely option, and this is their best shot in the Peel region other than Streetsville. I'm sticking however with TCTC, but I suspect I'll solidify that call once we get nearer to the election.
20/03/19 seasaw
Yet another prediction made based on today's poll numbers, but those numbers will change and so may my prediction. This is more of an bellwether riding, the Liberals did win this in '06 and'08, but that was primarily due to Paul Szabo. CPC for now, but we'll see
04/03/19 Kumar Patel
This part of Mississauga was solid blue under the days of Davis, Mulroney and Harris. Times have changed. It's a lean Liberal riding that the Conservatives pick up when they are approaching majority territory in the province.
23/02/19 Mizisuga
Lakeshore, coupled with Mississauga-Streetsville will be the two ridings that will swing Conservative. Falling on the perimetre of the GTA they are the Conservative strongpoints of Mississauga. With Stella Ambler running again, and polls showing a relative tie in Ontario, Lakeshore will be a Con pickup.

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