Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:09

Constituency Profile


Girguis, Samir

Hill, Chris

McIver, Thomas

Melek, Ghada

Sikand, Gagan

Spizzirri, Natalie


Gagan Sikand

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



46.43 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gagan Sikand 2679247.80%
Brad Butt ** 2262140.40%
Fayaz Karim 50409.00%
Chris Hill 12932.30%
Yegor Tarazevich 2530.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 100.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (85.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (14.84% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Nina Tangri 2087943.53%
Jacqueline Gujarati 1239325.84%
* Bob Delaney * 1234425.74%
Abhijeet Manay 13492.81%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8612.21%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Hold here for the Liberals. Melek's past remarks will hurt her.
18/10/19 Nick M.
Campaign Research has a large sample size for Peel Region and has the CPC leading in the Peel Region.
This riding would naturally go CPC if the polls were tied. But they are better than Tied for the CPC according to Campaign Research.
Chalk up this on for the CPC.
CPC usually don't win Lawn sign wars, and if they are winning the Lawn sign war according to the previous blogger, than this riding is going the CPC
08/10/19 Mizisuga
More Con signs if that indicates anything, and the Greens are campaigning seriously this time around. Still, it's too early to call Streetsville for any party.
08/10/19 R.O.
As the case with other Mississauga ridings this one has flipped between the liberals and conservatives in recent years. Gagan Sikand is a 1 term liberal mp and Ghana Malek is the new cpc candidate this year. The ndp have never been much of a factor here but Singh is from nearby Brampton so its harder to say how they’ll do this year in these ridings.
22/09/19 A.a7
Too Close to Call, I'd give a slight tilt to the Liberals because of the Conservative Candidate's past controversial remarks but this riding will probably remain very close on election day.
16/09/19 DurhamDave
The Conservative candidate's history of homophobic and Islamophobic comments are back in the news again. Apparently she was so controversial that the Ontario PCs called her ‘extremely controversial and problematic’. Not sure how this helps her here.
11/09/19 Stevo
The Liberal MP was recently exposed making fun of poor people. How classy. I don't expect that to make much of a difference in a generic suburban riding like this one, but it may go some way to entrenching the belief that Liberals are fundamentally out of touch and entitled to their entitlements.
07/08/20 A.S.
I'm wondering whether Brad Butt's surprisingly strong result last time had anything to do with doubts about Sigand--remember that the third-place Libs didn't always have top-of-the-line candidates going into that election--but the universal Mississauga swing swept Sigand in anyway; and now, it's the Cons' turn for having (maybe) a not-ready-for-prime-time standard-bearer.
24/07/19 R.D.
The National Post reports that federal Conservative candidate Ghada Melek was previously asked by the Ontario PCs to withdraw as a candidate for the same provincial riding, due to alleged anti-Islamic tweets.
16/07/19 CM
Great potential for the Green Party. No big name candidates and lots of votes to be had. Liberals and Conservatives will battle it out but the GPC's can score enough votes to finish in 3rd place, which in Peel is a great stepping stone and raising the bar for the next provincial election.
29/05/19 Craig
Mississauga is always tricky, and it's no exception here in Streetsville. It's always a classic swing area with perhaps a slight Liberal lean but willing to swing Conservative when their support rises. Neither the LPC MP nor the CPC candidate are particularly well known, leaving it to the national campaigns to decide the results.
I'd say too early to call right now...we won't know until the campaign starts. SNC-Lavalin is probably hurting the Liberals right now, but if immigration becomes an issue, that could be a Conservative minefield here. Stay tuned.
03/03/19 Sam
This is not safe for the Liberals on paper - last time Gagan Sikand won only by 7% against an MP who had a lot of controversy. This time he has a better challenger, and so is very vulnerable. The Liberal MPP unexpectedly came third provincially which is an indicator that the Conservative brand could play well here. I would be cautious in awarding it to either party but I would not be surprised if the Conservatives gain this.

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