Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:20

Constituency Profile


Ansari, Zaff

Arya, Chandra

Cooke, Jean-Luc

Hooda, Azim

St. Louis, Brian

Wang, Dustan


Chandra Arya

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



171.94 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Chandra Arya 3401752.40%
Andy Wang 2344236.10%
Sean Devine 53248.20%
Jean-Luc Roger Cooke 15132.30%
Jesus Cosico 4160.60%
Hubert Mamba 690.10%
Harry Splett 660.10%
Tony Seed 410.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lisa Macleod * 2389945.13%
Zaff Ansari 1511028.53%
Lovina Srivastava 1038319.61%
James O'Grady 27395.17%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6231.47%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
Arya does come off as a weak MP but I think he'll get in again this time federally.
16/10/19 R.O.
I’d be surprised if Lisa Mcleods provincial riding goes liberal federally by a large margin. although she is personally popular and the provincial results don’t necessary mean much federally. As the race is between liberal mp Chandra Ayra and cpc candidate Brian St Louis. But green support in Ontario has mostly held steady and ndp have risen which makes things more interesting in these types of ridings. whatever happens here I suspect the end result will be within 5 % either way
07/10/19 Nick M.
Looking at general voting patterns, ignoring the local candidate factor, I place this as too close to call, while leaning Conservative.
Provincially this riding has been Conservative.
The Liberals lost badly in 2011. Ontario polling for this next fed election has the CPC doing 5 points better than 2015 and the LPC doing 5 points worse.
16/09/19 R.O.
This seat has always been competitive , it lost the rural portions when redistributed and now almost all suburbs. Seems too early to write off cpc candidate Brian St Louis , it will surely be closer than 2015.
13/09/19 Rubbinio
Waking around the neighborhood the number of conservatives vs liberal lawnsigns is 20 : 1. And given Chandra has done nothing for the rising I would not be so sure he is a lock for the win. Add to that the fact that the area is on the wealthy side and the fact that the conservative candidate is well known in the rising and I think this has a very good chance of going conservative.
12/08/20 A.S.
The NCR's had a way of being at the coalmine-canary advance front of various political phenomena--the swing to the Liberal left in the late 80s; the swing back rightward circa Y2K; and the swing back to the Libs this decade. (And maybe, provincially in 2018, the Ford backlash.) When it comes to Nepean: here, too, as in Kanata-Carleton, Conservative candidate defects played an assist in 2015; but here, too, also as in Kanata-Carleton, redistribution played an assist--with almost all the rural stuff carved away, Nepean became the archetypal suburban promiscuous-middle riding that had, lately, been Conservative-by-convenience. So with wind in the Liberal sails for the first time in a decade (and in its present form, Nepean *would* have gone Liberal in 2004), it was a given the electorate would catch on, just as it was a given that provincially, Lisa Macleod would fare more sluggishly than anticipated in 2018 (and with the *NDP* as prime opposition, yet). And the effect of Macleod's beleagueredness in provincial cabinet surely has to trickle upwards to the FedCons in the present climate. Of course, everything would be turned upside down if the 2018 ONDP result turned out to be another kind of electoral coalmine canary (though I wouldn't bet on it)
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
Arya's been a really weak MP and probably doesn't deserve re-election, but as others have said the Conservative brand is damaged in Ottawa. This leaves this seat solidly with the Liberals.
06/04/19 Legolas
It will take a few more election cycles for the CPC to regain trust with public servants and Ottawa voters. Interesting note as well is that provincially the PC's lost support in Ottawa while gaining everywhere else. I think the CPC will make small gains but still comfortable Liberal hold.
01/04/19 Craig
It's true that not too long ago this was one of the strongest Conservative areas in Ontario. However, last year's provincial election should provide big clues in this affluent, well educated riding. Lisa Macleod needed a fairly strong vote split to get re-elected despite her very high profile - only marginally gaining on 2014. The federal Liberals, despite SNC-Lavalin, are much stronger right now, and the Conservatives have a much weaker candidate.
Simply put, as with all of Ottawa, the trend has not been the friend for the blue team. More civil servants and creative workers have been moving to the suburbs, which only benefits the Liberals. In this era of right-populism thanks to Brexit, Trump et. al., the Liberals are much closer in line to Ottawa voters, and hence this seat should remain solidly Liberal.
17/03/19 seasaw
It's a bit premature to make a prediction in this riding. Some polls show Tories and Liberals running neck and neck in the province, while others show the Tories leading. The question is what would things be like in October, and that's when we have to make the prediction. TCTC for now.
08/03/19 Sam
Although close on paper this is an Ottawa riding, where the Liberals have done very well and will likely do so again. The Conservatives are losing their appeal here and would likely only win this in a majority situation.

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