|CPC came close here in 2015. Even with Newmarket mayor Tony Van Bynen running here for the Liberals I think the CPC win the seat back.|
|This is a traditional swing riding where attention to economic issues like decline of the middle class and high Liberal taxes, combined with pragmatic approach to issues like climate hysteria for progressivist control (even if without acknowledging the faulty premise for such hysteria in the first place) favor its long-known former Conservative MP. CPC can still lose election, but win this riding; if they do not win even here, it would be only with a kind of result that sees Scheer resigning on election night - and it will be almost the same surprise as not winning back several Liberal-held Alberta ridings.|
|Lois Brown has been the cpc candidate here since 2006 and served as mp from 2008-2015. The liberal who beat her in 2015, Kyle Peterson decided not to run again. Despite the fact he had only served 1 term in Ottawa. Difficult for the liberals to keep the riding without an incumbent. in what has been a conservative/liberal swing riding lately .|
|I saw this as a minor upset in 2015. But with Peterson not running this is almost certain to go back to Lois Brown.|
|This should be a pickup for the Conservatives. Christine Elliott won in a landslide in the provincial election. Kyle Peterson won a very close race in the context of a Liberal majority in 2015. If the Liberals lose seats, this riding should be one of the first to flip back blue. Van Bynen was not a popular Mayor in Newmarket and will not be able to hold the seat for the Liberals.|
|Re the not-as-Con-slam-dunk-as-it-looks argument: even with Christine Elliott as the standard-bearer, the provincial PCs got their lowest York Region share here last year. Not ethnoburban/exurban/trashburban enough, IOW.|
|I agree with Kumar - this should be TCTC with Vsn Bynen in, which was a surprise. Whilst the CPC still have an edge in this district, Van Bynen as a standard bearer will keep the Liberals energised and in it.|
|Time to change this back to TCTC. |
1. Former three-term Newmarket mayor Tony Van Bynen is seeking the Liberal nomination for this riding.
2. The re-distributed Newmarket - Aurora is less conservative than Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill as evident by the 2015 and 2018 election results.
3. The LPC's poll numbers are very competitive in Ontario right now. Doug Ford's unpopularity is dragging the CPC numbers in the suburbs + enough time has passed since the SNC fiasco.
|CPC barely lost this seat in 2015 and Lois Brown is running again, while Kyle Peterson is retiring. With the way polling is going currently the CPC should win it back.|
|Under current circumstances, the Conservatives will win this riding. However, there is a little more than six months till the election and the Liberals can still turn the ship around (especially in Ontario).|
|My hometown region, which has always favored conservative politics, strikes me as very likely to slip back to the conservatives this election. Kyle Peterson is not seeking reelection, making this outcome all the more likely.|
Things can change. Candidates could influence things one way or another. But right now, this riding is absolutely heading this direction.
|And to reinforce my previous projection, Kyle Peterson has announced he is not running for re-election. It's now for the Conservatives to take.|
|Similarly to Richmond Hill and Hastings, a Conservative gain here is likely, with a rematch from 2015 and the fundamentals in the York area favouring the Conservatives. Although the Liberals aren't defeated yet this is one of their most vulnerable ridings which they probably only win if they are increasing their nationwide majority.|