Election Prediction Project

Nickel Belt
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-03-07 21:28:56

Constituency Profile


Laamanen, Aino

Serré, Marc


Marc G. Serré

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



26812.82 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marc G. Serré 2102142.80%
Claude Gravelle ** 1855637.80%
Aino Laamanen 822116.70%
Stuart McCall 12172.50%
Dave Starbuck 980.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 590.13%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Nickel Belt
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

France Gélinas * 2315763.5%
Jo-Ann Cardinal 801821.99%
Tay Butt 31828.73%
Bill Crumplin 11373.12%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)


02/06/19 seasaw
Easy Liberal hold here. Why? CPC is not a threat, and the NDP is at a 20 year low.
02/06/19 Sam
Still sticking this is not a surefire gain for the NDP, but they certainly have a high-profile candidate, musician Stephane Paquette from the Sudbury part of the riding. It's not Gravelle, but he was unlikely to run anyway. There's at least two other NDP musicians likely to win in Ontario (Angus and Cash), and he's a Francophone, but the fundamentals still don't have this as a certain gain. This isn't the metropolitan, diverse riding that Cash has, nor the long-standing Far North stronghold Angus has. But it's certainly ripe for the picking, and one of a smaller than usual number of winnable NDP targets.
29/05/19 Craig
The key will be who the NDP nominates. If they can get Claude Gravelle back, they should get the seat back since Marc Serre has the Trudeau record weighing down on him (even though Gravelle would have Singh as a negative factor). Otherwise, incumbency is a big advantage but not necessarily a decider. This is a very bilingual riding so if the NDP pick a unilingual candidate, forget it.
As for the Conservatives? While, at the surface, this would look promising for them (rural/suburban, working class), this is Northern Ontario after all. They haven't got even 30% of the vote in a federal or provincial election in Nickel Belt in a long time. Hence they shouldn't be a factor unless things dramatically change. It's hard to say right now between the Liberals and NDP.
28/04/19 Chris N
This is a difficult riding to predict. The NDP lost this riding in 2015 which was quite the surprise. Both the Liberals and NDP are currently dipping in the polls. It isn’t unthinkable that with an emboldened Conservative Party this into a three-way race that the NDP could win this riding with a lower vote percentage than 2015.
12/04/19 Sam
I believe the NDP are able to take this; this is rural but this is Northern Ontario rather than Southwestern, so they should do better. The Conservatives and Greens have no chance, so it's a straight fight between the two. Having said that, the NDP campaign is not gaining traction, and Claude Gravelle doesn't appear to be running, so it is possible both the Liberals and the NDP could decline in vote share, which would make it a lot harder for them.
04/03/19 MissBaum
This riding swings Liberal-NDP all the time federally, but consistently stays NDP provincially because of West Nipissing's status... it votes Liberal in droves, and is part of the riding federally but not provincially. The MP is also from that part of the riding. That said, with the Liberals being in scandal-land, things may go sour for Serré rather quickly. If the NDP nominates a francophone, they'll be pretty much set. A francophone from WN, guaranteed win. To win Nickel Belt, you need to be bilingual!

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster