Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:52

Constituency Profile


Boulet, Rob

Carr, Jordy

Gomm, Alex

King, Mark

Rota, Anthony


Anthony Rota

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13208.18 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Anthony Rota 2535751.90%
Jay Aspin ** 1432529.30%
Kathleen Jodouin 793616.20%
Nicole Peltier 12572.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (98.84% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Nickel Belt
   (1.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Vic Fedeli * 1759849.93%
Henri Giroux 1299436.87%
Stephen Glass 27947.93%
Kris Rivard 9972.83%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5851.87%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold here. Only time the area has really gone Conservative in the past was during the landslide yrs. of 1984 and 2011.
14/10/19 Dr. Bear
I take it back; Mark King is not going to come in second. Max Bernier came off kinda nutty in the English debate and what I'm seeing from Mark King's campaign is not any better. King will win the wingnut vote and support from people who know him (not an insignificant number of the latter in North Bay) but not much more. I now say he comes a distant third and sufficiently thwarting any chance the CPC had of winning this seat.
07/10/19 NJam101
Anthony Rota will win for sure. Nobody else will be close. This riding has only voted CPC when the CPC won a majority but not every time it has. And a CPC majority is highly unlikely.
A strong PPC candidate, Mark King will mean that Rota could win by almost 30 percentage points over whoever comes in second.
01/10/19 Dr Bear
Report from the riding: Rota signs on private lawns are out numbering all others 2-1. Conservatives are showing some life in town and the NDP finally has gotten out of the gate. The Green candidate seems to have no visible support at the time. The biggest surprise is how much support Mark King is getting (and I am deliberately saying Mark King's support and not PPC support, because this is not for the party but the candidate himself). King is definitely showing support and seems to have a well organized ground game. I am now going to make a bold prediction that the PPC will come in second in this riding with about 20% of the vote. If the CPC end up doing better overall, I would argue that it'll be the rural polls that help them out there. My prediction is predicated on the assumption that the PPC don't come off as total lunatics in the debates. If the party starts looking like a bunch of wingnuts, then King's support will sink and he'll come third. Right now, that doesn't seem to be the case.
22/09/19 R.O.
I just don’t see a people’s party candidates getting 25% of the vote in any Ontario riding. I’m sure Mark King will do better than an average people’s party candidate but no where near 25% of the vote. That being said Anthony Rota is a longtime incumbent and would seem to have an advantage at this point although depends how the campaign plays out.
18/09/19 Dr.Bear
If I am not mistaken, the phrasing of the question was, ‘would you consider voting for the PPC’. There is no surprise that 25% would consider voting for the PPC. Many people would ‘consider’ voting for another party (these are called swing voters). However seeing that a well-known local city councilor only garnered about 25% of the public ‘considering’ voting for him doesn’t bode well for his chances.
16/09/19 Tory Revert
According to the official Leader's Debate Commission, the PPC has a legitimate chance of winning this seat. According to riding level polls conducted for the commission by Ekos, at least 25% of respondents said it was ‘possible’ that they would vote for the People's Party candidate. Who would have guessed.
13/09/19 Dr Bear
After the first day out of the gate, Anthony Rota signs started popping up all over North Bay, both on public and private property. Much to my surprise, the only other candidate with any signs out is Mark King for the PPC. I reiterate my earlier comment that King will take a significant number of CPC votes, splitting the right-wing numbers and allowing the Liberals to win decisively.
23/08/20 Dr. Bear
The riding that I work in and will be voting in. Had the CPC kept long-time city councilor Mark King as their candidate, I would say that the race would have been interesting (albeit a Liberal hold). Now with him running for the PPC, he will split the right of centre vote and allow Tony Rota and even easier path to victory.
22/08/20 A.S.
Mark King might boost the PPC, but overtaking CPC for 2nd is another matter, unless Vic Fedeli suddenly decides he's more for Renata than Doug. Or if Jagmeet somehow outdoes Mulcair, the resulting split could even allow the NDP up the middle...for 2nd place. How Nipissing's managed to become the most electorally prov-fed split-personality place in Ontario--Harris/Fedeli provincially, yet thoroughly Liberal federally except in 1984/2011 landslide situations--I don't know; but they sure make it work...
10/08/20 Bimmerhead
The Conservatives really ruined any hope they had here by disqualifying Mark King and putting in Jordy Carr. King is now running for the PPC and his name recognition and status as a North Bay city councillor will likely relegate the Conservative candidate to third place. Anthony Rota's path to victory became a lot smoother.
25/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I expect the Tories to rebound a bit here; I don't see the margin of victory being 20 points, but by picking up a few NDP votes I think Anthony Rota will prevail again by a solid 5-10 points.
10/07/19 Brainstrained
Though the government hasn't done itself much credit in the past year or two, I expect NT to stay true to its Liberal roots. Anthony Rota is a solid and well-liked MP, while to some voters, Tory candidate Peter Chirico still has a cloud over his head for his role in the arena renovations fiasco. Still there's three months to go and the campaign hasn't started.
29/05/19 Craig
Likely Liberal. Even in 2011, under these boundaries, Anthony Rota would have won (albeit by an extremely narrow margin). Candidates matter a lot more than parties, which is why Vic Fedeli won even in a weak PC election in 2014 and the Ontario Liberals were decimated in 2018.
That said, there are a couple flies to the ointment. First, while it won't affect Rota in North Bay itself which tends to be Liberal-leaning (and gave the NDP really strong results in 2018), the rural parts of the riding could easily swing hard to the Conservatives if gun control becomes an issue and the Liberals propose gun bans. Second, the indigenous vote may swing to the NDP on the Wilson-Raybould file. It is unlikely that those will be enough to flip Nipissing blue at this time though given Rota's popularity, but things can and do change.
16/03/19 Sam
Anthony Rota would have technically won this in 2011 on the current boundaries, and he's a great MP. Even if the rural areas swing towards the Conservatives, he has enough votes in North Bay and his personal vote to win.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
While a swing riding on the surface, Anthony Rota is very popular much like Vic Fidelli is provincially so as long as he remains MP, I expect this to stay Liberal red. He almost won this in 2011 even during the meltdown.

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