Election Prediction Project

Northumberland-Peterborough South
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:56

Constituency Profile


Lawrence, Philip

MacDonald, Mallory

Rudd, Kim

Vaughan, Frank

Wheeldon, Jeff


Kim Rudd

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2726.00 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kim Rudd 2704342.50%
Adam Moulton 2516539.60%
Russ Christianson 941114.80%
Patricia Sinnott 19903.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1540.28%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Northumberland-Quinte West
   (76.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (13.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (10.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

David Piccini 2738645.32%
Jana Papuckoski 1480424.5%
Lou Rinaldi * 1460324.17%
Jeff Wheeldon 27404.53%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 1030.21%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
A must win seat for the CPC if they want to win government I think they'll win here in a close battle.
19/10/19 W
This is a traditionally strong conservative ridding which Rudd won by less than 2,000 votes when Trudeau was riding a big Red wave. Lots of NDP Green and even Conservative voters loaned Kim their vote last time on the promise of electoral reform. that ans other broken promises will hurt them this time. I will be very surprised if it does not go Blue again, though that would not be my choice.
19/10/19 R.O.
Think the riding will go for conservative candidate Phillip Lawrence unless the liberals do better than expected in Ontario or ndp do worse than expected although the recent increase for the ndp in the polls makes that seem less likely. This riding had been cpc from 2006-2011, almost went cpc in 2004 and even in 2015 when there was no cpc incumbent and liberals way ahead in the polls it was still pretty close. So far Trudeau and Scheer have both made campaign stops in the riding although it hasn’t generated much attention.
18/10/19 canvasses with 30 years of experience in elections
Ive canvassed on behalf of the losing party in this area for a while. For now he / she that doesnt waive the starting flag at the soapbox rally or pay homage to locals will fail. kind of crazy considering how badly contaminated over the last century Port Hope has become. If the Greens make hay of it - people might vote outside of the box. for now the dichotomy remains.
30/09/19 R.O.
This riding seems to be a close race between liberal incumbent Kim Rudd and conservative candidate Phillip Lawrence. With the ndp and greens battling for 3rd place which is the case in many ridings this year. Somewhat of a swing riding although has not always voted for the winner like nearby Peterborough , a few years where it did not. 2011 provincial election being one recent example when it went pc despite liberals winning a minority.
15/08/20 A.S.
The name deceives; the "Peterborough South" in question is actually Peterborough *County*, i.e. Otonabee/Asphodel rather than the city. Neither it nor the Clarington part (Clarke/Newcastle/Orono, where the CPC candidate's based) are really what buoy Liberal-hold hopes; it's all about Port Hope and Cobourg, with supplements from Brighton, Colborne, and in fact almost anyplace that can qualify as "urban". (And there's a longstanding environmentalist streak, spurred by such things as the Port Hope nuclear controversy, that *could* tempt one to monitor the Greens if Elizabeth May continues to poll high.)
16/07/19 Kumar Patel
This is one of those Ontario ridings that the Liberals should hold due to Doug Ford's unpopularity and a weak NDP. Liberals will draw their support in Peterborough, Cobourg, Clarington and Brighton.
03/03/19 Sam
This isn't as big a bellwether as the other Peterborough area riding, but if the Conservatives are doing well they should definitely win this as it is one of their easiest targets on paper. Kim Rudd has worked hard here, but it's hard to see the Conservatives not giving her a big fight. If the Conservatives are the largest party expect this to be an early indicator of success.

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