Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:54:59

Constituency Profile


Adamo, Jerome

Anand, Anita

Elwick, James

Meaney, JD

Pereira, Sushila

Young, Terence


John Oliver

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



78.27 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John Oliver 3195649.40%
Terence Young ** 2749742.50%
Che Marville 38305.90%
David Doel 14202.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Stephen Crawford 2483743.67%
Kevin Flynn * 2032735.74%
Lesley Sprague 942416.57%
Emily De Sousa 19863.49%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5181.04%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
The Liberal Mp for the area retired after 1 term. I think in 2019 the CPC candidate who was MP here from 2008-2015 wins the seat back.
11/10/19 R.O.
Terrence Young had been mp of this riding from 2008-2015 but lost his seat as liberal support surged in the Toronto area in 2015. Rookie liberal mp John Oliver surprised many by retiring after only 1 term . tough riding to get a feel for but likely know more in the final week, also not sure if any party leaders have campaigned in this area yet which seems odd.
25/09/19 Nick M.
There is no 2015 NDP vote to bleed over to the Liberals to offset the liberal/Con swing voter that is voting Con this election.
905 swings heavily. If provincially there is a 5 point swing, the 905 has a 10 point swing. If things don’t change in the national/provincial polls, than this is a Con pickup.
25/08/20 seasaw
Change of prediction here, the previous call was a bit premature. One of the previous posters called this the Greenwich, Conn of Ontario, it's a good joke, but the truth is this riding has never been Tory Blue, like I mentioned in my previous comment, the riding has elected a member from winning party in all but 3 elections since 1965, two of whom were strong incumbents. So, we have to wait till closer to election day to predict this.
11/08/20 A.S.
It's good/bad for both sides here. The Ford-hampered Cons running Terence Young again; the incumbentless/Flynn-less Libs benefiting nonetheless from Oakville's inherent Fordphobia (the Premier, not the auto company). And as a veteran of Mike Harris's SoCon wing, even Young isn't necessarily a *good* "good choice" for the kind of riding Oakville is, his prescription drug advocacy notwithstanding. On the whole, even without Kevin Flynn, Oakville as it now stands might be likelier to go Lib in the event of a knife-edge Con plurality, than Con in the event of a knife-edge Lib plurality.
16/07/19 MF
The Greenwich, Connecticut of the GTA. Oakville has gone from true blue conservative to an area that is more Conservative-hesistant than the more nouveau-riche York Region. Kevin Flynn's support held up rather well in the provincial election (Oakville is not exactly Ford Nation) and it's surprising he didn't get the federal nomination. But the Liberals are still in a good position to take it.
22/06/19 Sam
Liberals scored an own goal by not nominating Kevin Flynn here. That being said, Anita Anand evidently isn't a bad candidate, and with current polling in Ontario being still reasonably close, a middle-class area like Oakville could still stay in Liberal hands on a good night. I still think a Conservative gain is likely with Terence Young running again, but I suspect it could be a while before I solidify that view into a projection.
15/06/19 seasaw
@Marco Ricci, The poll that you've referred to was in case of a Kevin Flynn candidacy. The same poll indicated that if one of the other two candidates were on the ballot, it would be a CPC win. Anita Anand defeated Kevin Flynn for the nomination, she's got a very impressive resume and based on today's polls, she'll lose. But things may change between now and election day.
I should note that in a horrendous election year for the Ontario Liberals, Flynn came within 4,000 votes of holding his seat. He is a very, very strong candidate. Probably even more so than John Oliver. As someone who used to live in the riding. Kevin was highly visible and has one of the strongest campaign teams. The Liberals will definitely hold this.
06/06/19 Marco Ricci
A recent Mainstreet poll for Oakville indicates this riding may be leaning Liberal for now:
Liberals (43%)
Conservatives (31%)
Greens (6%)
NDP (3%)
PPC (3%)
04/06/19 seasaw
The candidacy of Kevin Flynn, will have absolutely no impact on how the Liberals do, and like Craig said, immigration may become an issue, but I don't think anyone but the Liberal government is in favour of illegal immigration. At the moment this looks like a CPC pickup, but that might change, as I mentioned in my previous comment the party that wins the election will win this riding, regardless of the candidate
29/05/19 Craig
If Kevin Flynn is the Liberal candidate, he should be the heavy favourite. He only narrowly lost in 2018 in an atrocious election for the Ontario Liberal Party, although that could partially be due to Doug Ford not being popular here. The LPC is nowhere near that low and Flynn remains quite popular.
A federal election could bring issues like immigration to the forefront, where the Conservative position is out of line with the highly affluent population here. Populism does not sell in these kind of places, hence 2015 might not be the CPC floor. As a result, the Liberals, under Flynn, should hold Oakville, even if they end up on the opposition side.
15/04/19 Kumar Patel
Former Liberal MPP Kevin Flynn is seeking the federal Liberal nomination for Oakville. He is the type of high-profile candidate the Liberals need to hold on to this riding this October.
15/03/19 seasaw
Again another prediction made based on today's polls, which might change before the election. This is another bellwether riding that Tories often win big when they do and Liberals often win close, but win when they form the government. The bellwether nature of the riding goes back to 1965, only in 1980 this riding's gone to the opposition, and that was primarily due to Otto Jelinek. Though the riding was quite a bit different then, I think if you factored in the town of Oakville in the '80 election, you'd see a very slim Liberal lead
04/03/19 Random Voter
It's too early to tell here. Both the CPC and Libs have a shot, but neither have selected their candidate yet, and MP John Oliver isn't seeking re-election. Nevertheless, Oakville tends to vote for party leader, so as of today (at the height of the SNC-Lavalin drama), I'm leaning that the Conservatives recapture this wealthy riding.
In 2011, former MP Terence Young won by 21% verses the Liberals winning by 7% in 2015 (when Mr. Young actually got 2,000 more votes than what he was first elected with in 2008). In the last election, he got almost 43%, which is on par with Burlington and ONB, and still won/tied 83 polls. However, the NDP isn't a factor here, so the Liberals always get a few extra points over their Halton neighbours as a result.
03/03/19 Sam
An open race which is likely to be very nationally oriented; this is an average battleground riding. With former MP Terence Young running again it could easily be an early Conservative gain, but that is not yet definitive. All three of the Oakville/Burlington ridings are vulnerable and so both the Liberals and Conservatives will be hitting them hard during the campaign.

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