Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:09

Constituency Profile


Carrie, Colin

Hossain, Afroza

Mackenzie, Eric

Panylo, Shailene

Ramsden, Jovannah

Tomlinson, Jeff


Colin Carrie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



60.58 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Colin Carrie ** 2316238.20%
Mary Fowler 1933931.90%
Tito-Dante Marimpietri 1658827.30%
Michael Dempsey 15222.50%
David Gershuny 750.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2940.56%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (83.91% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (16.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jennifer French * 2430144.88%
Bob Chapman 2259441.73%
Makini Smith 42787.9%
Deborah Ellis 19573.61%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 580.12%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Of all the CPC ridings Oshawa may be a surprise that they've held it so long given the nature of the riding. I think that's due more to the CPC candidate than anything else. I think he holds on here.
02/10/19 DurhamDave
Yeah, I think I'm ready to call this one for the CPC. When I drove into Oshawa over the weekend it was a sea of blue signs while the NDP and Liberals had no presence at all. You'd think that the NDP would want to target this riding, but given where they are in the polls, they're probably fighting to keep the few Ontario seats they already have rather than fighting for a long-coveted seat like this one.
22/09/19 The Jackal
This riding will go Conserative once again via a LIb-NDP vote split.
18/09/19 DurhamDave
The Liberals finally have a candidate in Oshawa, Afroza Hossain, so this page should be updated. The PPC also have a candidate now.
Apparently both the Communist Party and the Rhino Party have candidates in Oshawa according to this article.
But I think it’s probably too late for the Liberals in this riding. They will likely be focusing more on Whitby and Pickering in Durham. Leaning CPC, but I’d still like to see a riding poll before I make my final call.
12/09/19 DurhamDave
The Liberals still don't seem to have a candidate here, and if they do end up with one, they'll probably put in a placeholder and won't put up a fight here (unlike in Whitby or Pickering).
So I think this is a race between the Conservatives and NDP. Right now the CPC have the advantage due to the NDP nomination troubles (Sid Ryan backing out here) and having the incumbent advantage. I suspect this is more of a Colin Carrie riding than a CPC riding, so it'll be his for as long as he wants it. Though the NDP could get a boost if the Liberals don't run a decent candidate here.
Still would like to see a poll for this riding before I make my final call here.
08/08/20 A.S.
Funnily enough, I can see the "too close" spin running in all three directions here; and it might even depend on who the Libs run--last time they ran a relatively high-profile local-pol candidate, and it's only because Oshawa's so hardwired in terms of the PC-NDP binary that he couldn't crack the third-place ceiling. IOW the idea of Jagmeet's leadership as a latently unpalatable proposition in Oshawa needn't be the kiss of death for Anyone But Conservative--but whatever the parties involved, there's another potentially election-defining issue nobody's so far sought to point out: GM pulling out of Oshawa...
09/06/19 seasaw
Dr Colin Carrie has represented the riding for the past 15 years, he is the favourite here but he's far from safe. The NDP have tried hard in this riding, but have always came up short. Remember, this area hasn't elected an NDP since Ed Broadbent days. After holding the riding from 1993-2004, the Liberals have fallen in third place, however this time they may givr Dr Carrie a good run for his money
10/05/19 Craig
If Colin Carrie could survive 2015, he should be fine again in 2019. This is a rather unique riding for an area so close to Toronto, with demographics more similar to pre-2010s Hamilton or to Windsor. Redistribution continues to eliminate suburban areas (where more Toronto commuters live) and leave the industrial core. The GM cuts in Oshawa may play a role here, but all parties will be hit almost equally.
Even with their near-sweep of the GTA in 2015, the Liberals finished 3rd here. They should be irrelevant this time with SNC-Lavalin hitting them hard among working class voters. As for the NDP, they are usually strong here (and hold it provincially although it narrowed significantly in 2018 due to Doug Ford's relative popularity here), but Jagmeet Singh is not a leader that can grow their support here like Andrea Horwath can. Hence, the Conservatives should hold Oshawa again in 2019. Maybe with a new leader more in tune with working class voters, the NDP might have a shot in 2023.
13/04/19 Chris N
The federal NDP have been vying for this seat since the nail-biter in 2004. With the Conservatives (currently) on track for a minority or majority government, the Dippers will probably have to wait until next time.
06/04/19 Sam
Is this really too close to call? Ontario is one of the better provinces for the NDP, but Carrie has a proven record of survival and is a good MP. I maintain that the most vulnerable Conservative ridings are in the Simcoe or BC Interior areas rather than here, (I think they'll hold nearly all of them), although I expect them to have a smaller vote share increase than elsewhere.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Carrie fought his toughest battle since 2004 last time, and this time the Tories should be up. His incumbency is an advantage and while the provincial NDP may have done well here, the national campaign will not fare quite as well. Carrie ought to win slightly back up over the 40% mark.
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Safe Conservative riding, mostly due to the progressive vote being split.
Will be interesting to see if the Liberals or NDP place second.

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