Election Prediction Project

Ottawa Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:12

Constituency Profile


Bertrand, Shelby

Clemenhagen, Carol

Corcoran, Coreen

Jones, Chris G

Keller-Herzog, Angela

Leriche, Marie-Chantal

McKenna, Catherine

Ryan, Stuart

Sevilla, Merylee

Taman, Emilie

Vo, Giang Ha Thu


Catherine Mary McKenna

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



32.19 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Catherine Mary McKenna 3221142.70%
Paul Dewar ** 2909838.50%
Damian Konstantinakos 1094314.50%
Tom Milroy 22463.00%
Dean T. Harris 5510.70%
Conrad Lukawski 1670.20%
John Andrew Omowole Akpata 1600.20%
Stuart Ryan 1240.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6861.06%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Ottawa Centre
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Joel Harden 2967546.08%
Yasir Naqvi * 2111132.78%
Colleen Mccleery 1032716.03%
Cherie Wong 22663.52%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8081.52%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
Of all Trudeau's ministers Mckenna seems to be the most polarizing. I think the NDP running Emile Taman here only helps the NDP as well. Still I think Mckenna's ministerial profile will get her a close win here.
18/10/19 Johnny 5
Post debate NDP bounce can make this riding competitive, Emilie Taman could spell trouble for Mckenna, this is gonna be a tiht one, but i think the ndp will pull it off, just as it did during the provincial election!
18/10/19 R.O.
The liberal campaign in Ottawa Centre is getting more unusual by the day, now installed campaign signs in the riding which mention liberal campaign themes like Gun Control , pro choice , public service jobs and climate action. But aren’t liberal red according to an Ottawa citizen article I saw online.
McKenna sets out new 'hyper-local' signs — minus Liberal name or colours, Tom SpearsUpdated: October 16, 2019
15/10/19 Dustin
On my street in Old Ottawa East in 2015, McKenna signs dominated our neighborhood. Even near Paul Dewar's house.
This election on private property there are three NDP signs and two conservative signs on my street. Not one Liberal sign.
Think McKenna is in trouble with the NDP surge.
14/10/19 PB
*Should* be a safe hold for the Liberals - this riding only tends to switch in wave elections (federal Liberals in-2015, provincial Liberals out last time) - What's interesting is a fairly strong showing from the Greens - I see more of their signs than I ever have. Could they be drawing disproportionately from the Liberals? Enough to pull them back to a surging NDP? Almost certainly not, but I'll be watching the raw vote totals closely on election night...
12/10/19 Nick M.
Trudeau makes a late campaign stop in Ottawa Centre is an indication he is on defence, and trying save what should have been a safe seat.
Start of campaign no one would have predicted this riding is in play, but Trudeau has just reaffirmed it is.
11/10/19 R.O.
There has been a flurry of party leaders campaign visits to this riding. ndp leader Jagmeet Singh has made several stops indicating it’s a top ndp target and Justin Trudeau was there today. Makes you wonder what is going on there ? seems that the race may be getting closer in this riding.
06/10/19 Armchair Pundit
A riding that has historically swung between the NDP and Liberals (and is probably more centrist politically than it seems). With McKenna in Cabinet, and the NDP so low in the polls, it's hard to see a pickup for them, here. In Ontario, NDP was at 18% in 2004, 19% in 2006, 18% in 2008, and 26% in 2011 when they won Ottawa-Centre. Poll Tracker has them at 15% now and below their 2015 support province-wide. A Liberal hold barring a major uptick in NDP support in the next two weeks.
26/09/19 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet poll says that ‘McKenna leading comfortably in Ottawa Centre’ and NDP is in 3rd, behind the Conservatives.
21/09/19 S.J.
This should be a narrow Liberal hold, but Catherine McKenna will have to really fight for it. Both the Liberals and NDP are running solid campaigns here, and let’s not forget that provincially, the NDP took down a Liberal cabinet minister by nearly tripling the NDP vote from 2014. Also, there’s no ‘ABC’ effect here, as the tories are a non-factor. But ultimately, the Liberals should just hold on to this one.
18/09/19 R.O.
A riding that could get interesting if the ndp campaign improves at all before oct 21 , as the riding often does vote ndp and Emilie Taman is well known after several runs in Ottawa Vanier . but current mp Catherine Mckenna maintains an advantage at this point.
03/09/19 MF
Changing my prediction to safe Liberal. Catherine McKenna will be re-elected. Emilie Taman is a credible candidate for the NDP but it will probably not even be close. More of a Marion Dewar '93 type result than Paul Dewar '15. It'll be also interesting to see how much of the left-of-the-Liberals vote bleeds to the Greens.
31/08/19 South Islander
It seems some people are following McKenna's obviously tongue-in-cheek advice by trying to repeat that she is weak and unpopular until people believe it. Unfortunately for them, Ottawa Centre voters don't come here to decide how to vote. In any case, none of these rationalizations of her being being defeated or vulnerable are convincing. This riding has been Liberal for most of the past half-century with a few exceptions: 1) the PCs won here in a 1978 by-election shortly before the LPC were turfed from power (though the LPC regained this riding in the 1979 election); 2) Former Ontario NDP leader Mike Cassidy won this during the 1984 LPC collapse (though the LPC regained the riding in 1988); 3) Political legend Ed Broadbent won this as an open seat in 2004 and served a single term; 4) the late Paul Dewar won this riding when the LPC was turfed, and held it during their decline (even though he was a high profile former leadership contender, he couldn't hold it when the LPC were swept into power). McKenna has been a high profile minister, and is unpopular with those who feel strongly that the government is doing too little or too much to tackle climate change, or don't respect her because of her gender and hair colour. As vocal as her detractors might be, I just don't think they are concentrated in Ottawa Centre. Emilie Taman may be a solid candidate, but she isn't a household name like Ed Broadbent or Mike Cassidy. More importantly, this isn't shaping up to be an election where a longtime Liberal government bleeds supporters to the NDP as they are turfed from power.
13/08/20 A.S.
For all the barbs thrown at Climate Barbie, I don't feel a "weak-in-cabinet" perception harms her the way it might incipiently harm her Ottawa-area chequered-cabinet-record provincial counterpart, Lisa MacLeod. In fact, just *being* there, and being visible, might well be to her benefit; after all, McKenna was something of an "accidental" victor in 2015, so expectations were never that *over*-elevated. But re that "accidentality", let's face it: federally since the Mulroney era, the NDP has very deliberately punched well above its weight in Ottawa Centre, perhaps picking off the civil-service-fueled *symbolism* of its being Ottawa Centre--even in the worst of the AudreyAlexa years, they never sunk below 22% or second place (granted, running Marion Dewar in 1993 helped). Taman follows in that tradition; her past Ottawa-Vanier run (and byelection reprise, when she became the rare byelection New Democrat to actually *improve* on 2015) was but rehearsal for this. Though what *could* damage NDP chances--or counter-damage the Libs by putting Climate Barbie's feet to the fire--is that the Greens also have a strong history here; then again, said "strong history" is more of the noughts than of the teens, and former leadership contender David Chernushenko lost his municipal bid for reelection in 2018.
26/07/19 MF
Catherine McKenna is a weak minister and the NDP has a strong candidate in Emilie Taman but the NDP is probably too weak to take Ottawa Centre federally. Marking TCTC for now.
20/07/19 Sam
It's easy to see why politicians from all sides attack Catherine McKenna, but with the current state of play, expect a Liberal blowout in a riding like this.
18/07/19 Physastr Master
I admit that with current numbers the Liberals will win, but there's a reason why a campaign period exists. With McKenna's cabinet position, this riding really comes down to whether the Liberals can hold on to their environmental credentials. With recent studies stating that Trudeau's climate targets have them on pace for 5 degrees of warming globally, I simply don't see this happening. Her embarrassing record makes her an obvious target for NDP and Green attacks, and the NDP is the only one with the history in the riding to capitalize on it.
13/06/19 Laurence Putnam
While the thought of Catherina McKenna clearing out her Parliament Hill office and moving out in defeat makes me positively giddy, it would be foolish to think that scenario realistic in 2019. On paper, the NDP should challenge here - but past results do not guarantee future success. Paul Dewar was a well-known local incumbent with a storied family history in the riding and obviously Thomas Mulcair was a well known leader who led polls through much of the last campaign.
Because lots of people voted for Paul Dewar/Tom Mulcair in 2015 does not mean that all those votes will accrue automatically to the next NDP candidate/Jagmeet Singh.
In 2019,. McKenna is now the (highly visible) incumbent and the Liberals are the governing party, in what is a heavily bureaucratic riding. Jagmeet Singh is struggling for recognition and the local candidate, while she has a famous parent, is otherwise virtually unknown to the riding.
I sense a great deal of partisanship in NDP-well wishers posting here, and while I respect their passion the reality is that a sitting cabinet minister in the most bureaucratic riding in the country is not going to lose her seat to the NDP in a year where they are expected to lose votes all over the country.
28/05/19 Mizisuga
Oh lord, McKenna just made a big mistake in St.John's. She is already a rather unpopular Minister, and this gaffe certainly won't aid her. TCTC between Liberals and NDP.
07/05/19 NDP13
Catherine McKenna is incompetent and unpopular amongst Canadians, and though her liberal title is appealing in the city of Ottawa, the NDP will pick this up with a good candidate.
06/04/19 Sam
The outcomes here vary wildly, so I think Too Early to Call is the correct option. I agree with many of the previous observations.
01/04/19 Craig
Catherine McKenna, aka ‘Climate Barbie’ to detractors, may be despised in large parts of Canada, but this is correctly described as a classic ‘elitist’ or ‘Laurentian consensus’ riding. She's tailor-made for that demographic and civil servants seem to like her and the Liberal environmental policy a lot more than the Ford-Scheer policy. There isn't an obvious NDP heir either and SNC-Lavalin is a non-factor here.
With the Conservatives irrelevant (one of their top 5 worst ridings in Ontario these days), it should stay solidly with McKenna - unless the Liberals tank nationally, in which case voters will likely run to the NDP (or the Greens?) in droves. But I call it a safe Liberal seat for now.
25/03/19 Terry K
This has been a predominantly N.D.P riding since the mid 2000s and I think it will swing back to the recent norm in the next election. Catherine McKenna is not well liked, not even in the Ottawa region. That coupled with the recent scandal, this one may not even be close.
15/03/19 seasaw
@M Lunn. While I agree that the Liberals seem to be in pretty good shape here, I wouldn't say they're a safe bet yet. I was recently at this riding and noticed people walking down Bronson were dressed in poorer clothes than 3 years ago, and all indicators
24/02/19 M. Lunn
I absolutely cannot stand Catherine McKenna myself, but while her condescending attitude towards Conservatives would probably anger people an hour west of Ottawa, in this beltway liberal elitist riding, this is political gold. Never mind with the tragic death of Paul Dewar, there isn't any NDP candidate on the horizon to really challenge her while the Tories always do poorly here.

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