Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:15

Constituency Profile


Bertschi, David

Lalonde, Marie-France

Petersen, Michelle

Saint-Fleur, Roger

Wiens, Jacqui


Andrew Leslie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



205.03 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Andrew Leslie 4654259.70%
Royal Galipeau ** 2382130.50%
Nancy Tremblay 62158.00%
Raphaël Morin 14101.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 70.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Marie-France Lalonde * 2497239.05%
Cameron Montgomery 2250935.2%
Barbara Zarboni 1403321.94%
Nicholas Lapierre 16032.51%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4060.73%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
Was suprised that Leslie stepped aside after 1 term as MP. That said the Liberals will hold on here. They're running a Liberal MPP that survived the 2018 provincial Liberal meltdown in Ontario. I think she'll win the seat in her move to federal politics.
17/10/19 Mark W
MF Lalonde is popular, as was Andrew Leslie. Many federal public servants will worry about spending cuts should Cons form govt. Also Mt Bertschi comes across as a bitter, sore loser having lost the nomination Leslie last time around. With Marie France as the candidate I see a comfortable Liberal hold here. Interestingly enough local city councillor Stephen Blais is running to replace MF Lalonde at Queens Park, leaving a vacant seat on city council for Cumberland, perhaps Mr. Bertschi can try his luck there, he seems desperate to get elected to something
13/10/19 Nick M.
I said in 2014 that this riding will turn red cause of Andrew Leslie. Factor in Justin Mania and it was one by a landslide.
2015 data is unreliable cuz Leslie was a strong candidate that appealed to conservatives.
Going off of 2011 vote results, this is a Liberal win if provincial polling data holds true.
08/10/19 Marco Ricci
The reason Bertschi couldn't win here as a Liberal was because he ran in 2011 -- the worst Liberal year in history. But what was interesting was that he got a better vote share than any Liberal in Ottawa except McGuinty in Ottawa South, even getting a higher share than the winning Mauril Belanger in Ottawa-Vanier. Bertschi & the Conservatives are running a full campaign here, and the riding is covered in Bertschi CPC lawn signs. However, after a late nomination meeting, Lalonde is now catching up in lawn signs, and since this riding voted Liberal 2-1 in 2015 and stayed Liberal provincially in 2018 under Lalonde, she will probably end up the winner here.
03/09/19 Terry K
Bertschi couldn't win here as a Liberal so I don't think he has a chance as a Conservative. Neither Scheer or his Orleans candidate will push the 25% of voters that are undecided to their camp.
03/09/19 Marco Ricci
The riding poll referred to below was apparently not a Mainstreet poll. It appears to have been a poll done by an unknown pollster which only sampled about 70 people and and so most of the polling sites are not counting it as a real poll. Since the Liberals won this riding by a 2-1 margin in 2015 and then held it provincially in 2018, it is very unlikely that they will lose it this year. Ironically, Bertschi might have been able to get elected as a Liberal this year if he were still running for the party. Meanwhile, the Liberals haven't picked their nominee yet because it appears that a local businesswoman is challenging Marie-France Lalonde for the nomination. So slow Liberal start, but likely still a Liberal win.
13/08/20 A.S.
Especially if we have one of 2018's provincial survivors running in Leslie's place, I doubt either Leslie's premature retirement or Bertschi's party-switch will make great difference--heck, the Libs could still do better here than in Ottawa Vanier. (Come to think of it, they already did, in 2015.)
28/07/19 seasaw
Another change in prediction, this one from Liberal to TCTC, another Mainstreet poll has put the CPC ahead of the Liberals by 10 points, but 35% are undecided. Most undecideds are voters who are open to change, but they would have to be convinced of something better, otherwise, they'll pick the devil the know over the person they don't. There's almost 3 months left, and still anything can happen.
30/05/19 seasaw
I'm going with my gut on this one, while former Liberal David Berstchi is running for the CPC ( Royal Galipeau was once a Liberal too ), Marie France Lalonde is running for the Liberals, though she hasn't been nominated yet. If Lalonde is nominated, she might create a backlash, if not, no backlash. Even if Lalonde's nominated and with a backlash, there is enough support to keep this in the red column
14/05/19 Marco Ricci
Liberal MPP Marie-France Lalonde announced today that she plans to run for the nomination to succeed Andrew Leslie. Although it's a little surprising that she is planning to leave her provincial seat so soon, she will probably have a good chance of winning the Federal seat after having held the provincial seat last year.
Surprised to see this listed TCTC. While Leslie's departure certainly won't help the Liberals here, they are still averaging 34% in the CBC's poll tracker in Ontario. In the two most recent provincial and federal elections, the Liberals have managed results that were anywhere from 13 to 20% better than their province-wide result. This suggests, based on current polling numbers, a potential range of 47-54%. Even if Bertschi wins the Conservative nomination and pulls some former Liberals into his camp, I would not expect the Liberal margin to go below 7-8%, based on current numbers.
08/05/19 Terry K
Losing Andrew Leslie is a blow to the Liberal brand, however I don't think this will change how this riding votes. Recent Liberal policies (C-69, NAFTA deal, trans mountain stalls, export troubles etc.) hurt the working class but won't effect the population living here as this is a riding comprised of federal workers. They will vote Liberal no matter who the candidate is as they see Conservatives as a threat to department sizes, and potentially their jobs. This is a ‘big government’ riding, hard red no matter what.
06/05/19 Sam
I don't agree with the prediction change, TCTC seems a bit too cautious for a realistic prediction. Sure, Leslie's retiring and doing some damage to the Liberals there, but I find it very hard to believe that a riding that the OLP won would go CPC in an election like this. Don Valley West, which appears to be the most likely OLP riding to go CPC, we are predicting Liberal. Even the projections that don't account for Liberal strength/CPC weakness in the Ottawa area have this as solid red; Leslie was no better an MP (even if a star candidate and a Parl Sec) than the late Royal Galipeau, yet the Liberal strength here last time overwhelmed Galipeau. Sure the Liberal strength is receding, but I really don't think they're going to lose this.
03/05/19 seasaw
With Andrew Leslie gone, this seat may become more competitive, however, right now with current poll numbers, it's still going to be a stretch for the Tories to pick this up. If the Liberals were to drop a couple of more points and the Tories pick up a couple, then this riding will be competitive, we'll say Liberal for now.
01/05/19 Marco Ricci
Liberal MP Andrew Leslie won't seek re-election this fall
06/04/19 Legolas
It will take a few more election cycles for the CPC to regain trust with public servants and Ottawa voters. Interesting note as well is that provincially the PC's lost support in Ottawa while gaining everywhere else. I think the CPC will make small gains but still comfortable Liberal hold.
16/03/19 Craig
In the last few years, Orleans has become more of a suburban version of Vanier with population growth as largely bilingual federal employees move out into the suburbs. The fact that it remained red even in the Wynne meltdown of 2018 should be a sign that this is a safe Liberal seat now. Even during the wins from 2006 to 2011, the margins were relatively small and never really improved as the Conservatives went from opposition to minority to majority status.
Hence, Andrew Leslie should feel comfortable in his seat even if the Liberals move back to the opposition benches.
04/03/19 Terry K
In spite of the recent scandal, this should be a strong Liberal hold. The vote doesn't split with the N.D.P in this riding and Leslie is a very strong candidate.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
While a decade ago this was a bellwether riding, recent elections suggest it has swung solidly into the Liberal column so I expect the Liberals to hold this. They held it provincially during the meltdown and also with Ford's cuts to French language services, Ontario Francophones appear to have soured on the Tories thus hurting their chances in ridings with large Francophone populations.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster