Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-05-13 23:19:08

Constituency Profile


Bertschi, David

Saint-Fleur, Roger

Wiens, Jacqueline


Andrew Leslie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



205.03 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Andrew Leslie 4654259.70%
Royal Galipeau ** 2382130.50%
Nancy Tremblay 62158.00%
Raphaël Morin 14101.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 70.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Marie-France Lalonde * 2497239.05%
Cameron Montgomery 2250935.2%
Barbara Zarboni 1403321.94%
Nicholas Lapierre 16032.51%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4060.73%

30/05/19 seasaw
I'm going with my gut on this one, while former Liberal David Berstchi is running for the CPC ( Royal Galipeau was once a Liberal too ), Marie France Lalonde is running for the Liberals, though she hasn't been nominated yet. If Lalonde is nominated, she might create a backlash, if not, no backlash. Even if Lalonde's nominated and with a backlash, there is enough support to keep this in the red column
14/05/19 Marco Ricci
Liberal MPP Marie-France Lalonde announced today that she plans to run for the nomination to succeed Andrew Leslie. Although it's a little surprising that she is planning to leave her provincial seat so soon, she will probably have a good chance of winning the Federal seat after having held the provincial seat last year.
Surprised to see this listed TCTC. While Leslie's departure certainly won't help the Liberals here, they are still averaging 34% in the CBC's poll tracker in Ontario. In the two most recent provincial and federal elections, the Liberals have managed results that were anywhere from 13 to 20% better than their province-wide result. This suggests, based on current polling numbers, a potential range of 47-54%. Even if Bertschi wins the Conservative nomination and pulls some former Liberals into his camp, I would not expect the Liberal margin to go below 7-8%, based on current numbers.
08/05/19 Terry K
Losing Andrew Leslie is a blow to the Liberal brand, however I don't think this will change how this riding votes. Recent Liberal policies (C-69, NAFTA deal, trans mountain stalls, export troubles etc.) hurt the working class but won't effect the population living here as this is a riding comprised of federal workers. They will vote Liberal no matter who the candidate is as they see Conservatives as a threat to department sizes, and potentially their jobs. This is a ‘big government’ riding, hard red no matter what.
06/05/19 Sam
I don't agree with the prediction change, TCTC seems a bit too cautious for a realistic prediction. Sure, Leslie's retiring and doing some damage to the Liberals there, but I find it very hard to believe that a riding that the OLP won would go CPC in an election like this. Don Valley West, which appears to be the most likely OLP riding to go CPC, we are predicting Liberal. Even the projections that don't account for Liberal strength/CPC weakness in the Ottawa area have this as solid red; Leslie was no better an MP (even if a star candidate and a Parl Sec) than the late Royal Galipeau, yet the Liberal strength here last time overwhelmed Galipeau. Sure the Liberal strength is receding, but I really don't think they're going to lose this.
03/05/19 seasaw
With Andrew Leslie gone, this seat may become more competitive, however, right now with current poll numbers, it's still going to be a stretch for the Tories to pick this up. If the Liberals were to drop a couple of more points and the Tories pick up a couple, then this riding will be competitive, we'll say Liberal for now.
01/05/19 Marco Ricci
Liberal MP Andrew Leslie won't seek re-election this fall
06/04/19 Legolas
It will take a few more election cycles for the CPC to regain trust with public servants and Ottawa voters. Interesting note as well is that provincially the PC's lost support in Ottawa while gaining everywhere else. I think the CPC will make small gains but still comfortable Liberal hold.
16/03/19 Craig
In the last few years, Orleans has become more of a suburban version of Vanier with population growth as largely bilingual federal employees move out into the suburbs. The fact that it remained red even in the Wynne meltdown of 2018 should be a sign that this is a safe Liberal seat now. Even during the wins from 2006 to 2011, the margins were relatively small and never really improved as the Conservatives went from opposition to minority to majority status.
Hence, Andrew Leslie should feel comfortable in his seat even if the Liberals move back to the opposition benches.
04/03/19 Terry K
In spite of the recent scandal, this should be a strong Liberal hold. The vote doesn't split with the N.D.P in this riding and Leslie is a very strong candidate.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
While a decade ago this was a bellwether riding, recent elections suggest it has swung solidly into the Liberal column so I expect the Liberals to hold this. They held it provincially during the meltdown and also with Ford's cuts to French language services, Ontario Francophones appear to have soured on the Tories thus hurting their chances in ridings with large Francophone populations.

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