Bolaños, Rodrigo André
	Bouragba, Ahmed
	Gay, Morgan
	Laith, Sarmad
	McGuinty, David
	Schram, Les
	Tannis, Eli
	Wasslen, Larry
Incumbent:
	David McGuinty

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			121058 121894 51384 48416 72.88 km² 1661.0/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	David McGuinty **	38831	60.10%
	Dev Balkissoon	15711	24.30%
	George Brown	7480	11.60%
	John Redins	1888	2.90%
	Al Gullon	366	0.60%
	Damien Wilson	237	0.40%
	Larry Wasslen	136	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		19625	33.28%
		10710	18.16%
		25954	44.01%
		1787	3.03%
Other		895	1.52%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Ottawa South    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	John Fraser *	20773	39.63%
	Karin Howard	15319	29.23%
	Eleanor Fast	14250	27.19%
	Les Schram	1618	3.09%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		23708	49.96%
		15235	32.11%
		5817	12.26%
		2034	4.29%
Other		656	1.38%

	20/10/19	ewv1973 70.30.103.156
Here is my prediction for this election, not much appears to have changed during this election. No major controversies locally so this was one of the more quiet ridings compared to the provincial election. Libs - 29,865 48.90% Cons - 14,696 24.06% NDP - 10,017 16.40% Green - 5,366 8.78% PPC - 1,118 1.80% An easy Liberal hold but a drop in support by about 10,000 votes from last time, that vote going to the NDP and Green parties. The Conservatives will be down about a 1,000 votes which appear to be going to the PPC. The Greens will see the largest gain with them getting close to 4,000 more votes than the last election. As I haven't seen any indication of the Green party here having a ground game they likely lost out on about another 400-500 votes. The NDP for many years here have under performed in respect to the National Average for the party. They are still under performing here but they do appear to be closing the gap both Provincially and Federally. A lot of that is due to a strong local team that has helped them increase their vote.
	19/10/19	Tony Ducey 71.7.242.216
The political home of former foreign minister, John Manley. The seat has been Liberal since its inception. I doubt it changes now. Liberal hold.
	21/09/19	Sitamshu Marahatta 142.113.233.94
The McGuinty dynasty has held this riding for decades, it’s a Liberal hold for sure. It won’t be as much of a blowout as last time though. The Conservatives will eat into McGuinty’s support in the more suburban areas, and the NDP’s Morgan Gay is actually running a very solid campaign here. They’re working hard to get out the vote in Herongate, Heatherington, and other low-income areas. But at the end of the day, the Liberals will keep it.
	16/09/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
During the time I’ve followed politics pretty sure this riding has never voted anything but liberal so more than likely it stays liberal this year.
	25/08/20	ewv1973 70.30.103.156
As per the others I still see this as a Liberal hold but I think it will not be the 35 point blowout we saw in the last election. For the first time in a decade of living in this riding I saw a Conservative candidate actually canvassing in my area. Talking to Eli he is determined to canvas the entire riding. From our discussion it looks like the Conservatives in this riding are finally putting forth a ground game that had been lacking and hurting them in the previous elections. Looking at the site 338 they predict a Liberal hold here and based on their numbers at the moment I see the likely scenario Lib - 45-50% Cons - 25-30% (towards 30 if they actually have an election day plan, they have the canvassing) NDP - 15-17% Green - 12-15% (suspect they don't have ground game here as NDP do, so while improving as per the party not expecting them to beat an NDP that has a proven ground game in this riding) PPC - 2.5%
	13/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
Tannis isn't a *strong* "strong competitor"; and CPC's flung strong contenders vs the McGuinty machine in the past, always in futility. Who knows, in the unlikely event that 2018's provincial dynamic is furthered federally in 2019, we might somehow even see the NDP ahead of the Cons...
	21/07/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
This one's a no Brainer. Easy Liberal hold. This riding since inception has always been held by a Liberal, it's predecessor riding, only elected a Tory twice, once in a 1977 by-election and once during the landslide of '84. The Liberals often poll over 50% in this riding. Sometime down the road things might change but not this time.
	17/04/19	Laurence Putnam 50.68.187.24
Held both federally and provincially by their respective Liberal parties for over 30 years (and by three members of the same family) the Tories would do well to read the previous posts here and devote their energies elsewhere. Even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially this is a dyed-in-the-wool grit riding. Even if it's starting to look like Scheer is going to be more and more competitive, you'd need a 1984 style Mulroney wave to even contemplate turning this blue. Scheer on his best day will never win an election with a result like that, and he'll never win Ottawa South either.
	17/04/19	Craig 24.213.108.184
The McGuinty family have become an institution in Ottawa South and the blowout win in 2015 can't be ignored. That said, even without them, this would be a safe Liberal seat. After all, this seat stayed solidly Liberal even in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially. Ottawa, if anything, is trending even more towards them in this day and age. Yes, the Conservatives have a strong candidate, but the fundamentals are too strongly against them and the local candidates don't matter too much here. The trend towards populism on the right does not play well here either (or anywhere in Ottawa for that matter, look at 2018 vs. 2014 provincially, a rare regression) and the NDP have never been strong either. Hence, no matter what, the Liberals can rest easy here.
	25/03/19	Terry K 131.137.245.206
It will be interesting to see how close of a race Eli Tannis will make it and how much support he can garner from the small business community. Though Eli Tannis is a strong candidate and a popular business man (Tannis Food Distributors) in the community, this seems to be a liberal lock.
	15/03/19	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.70
Even in their worst elections ever (2011 federally and 2018 provincially) the Liberals still hung on to this seat. No reason that will change.
	03/03/19	MF 69.159.84.69
Since its inception, Ottawa South has voted nothing but Liberal in federal elections and this was one of two ridings where the OLP won by more than 10 points during the '18 catastrophe.
	24/02/19	Sam 86.161.144.122
Another riding in which it would be stunning for the Liberals to lose. David McGuinty is a strong incumbent in a seat which voted over 60% for the Liberals - not quite Atlantic levels but a hugely good result in Ontario. It also went Liberal at the provincial level despite their near-wipeout. An easy hold for the Liberals.
	24/02/19	M. Lunn 174.7.100.252
This is a fools gold for the Tories. They've come close a few times but even in the best cases come up short so it really is just a question of whether the Liberals narrowly win this meaning they are heading to the opposition benches or win by a landslide thus heading back to government. The McGuinty family has held this for a long time and I expect this to continue at least federally.