Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:22

Constituency Profile


Altman, Joel

Bernard, Joel E.

Durst, Paul

Fortier, Mona

Legeais, Christian

McHugh, Daniel James

Mercier, Stéphanie

Miller, Derek

Ngabirano, Oriana

Paquette, Michelle


Mona Fortier

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



39.09 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mauril Bélanger ** 3647457.60%
Emilie Taman 1219419.20%
David Piccini 1210919.10%
Nira Dookeran 19473.10%
Coreen Corcoran 5030.80%
Christian Legeais 1280.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1220.22%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Nathalie Des Rosiers * 2055542.86%
Lyra Evans 1423229.68%
Fadi Nemr 1025221.38%
Sheilagh Mclean 19554.08%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3770.89%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
The Liberals could do a 1993 PC result and only win a handful of seats on Monday. Even if that happened they'd still win here. The area has gone Liberal since 1935, that won't change this time.
21/09/19 S.J.
This riding is as Liberal as it gets, it will no doubt go Liberal. The NDP will win a few polls near uOttawa and some low-income areas in Vanier and Overbrook, while the Conservatives may win a few polls in the affluent areas like Rockcliffe Park. But at the end of the day, Mona Fortier has this riding in the bag.
16/09/19 R.O.
The provincial by election for this riding might get interesting although little doubt the federal seat stays liberal this year.
13/08/20 A.S.
It might be a solid-Liberal stronghold; but with boundary changes and the dissipation of the Vanier Franco-Ontarian element, not in the invariably stratospheric AlbertaCon way it once was--prior to Y2K it was the kind of seat that, except in the Mulroney landslide (and then just barely), only went below 50% when a dissident Independent/Liberal candidate was in the running. By comparison, even in Ottawa it only had 2015's third highest Liberal share. One issue is that the historical Liberalism had a strong "social democratic" undercurrent that's proven latently NDP-amenable in recent times--in 2017's byelection, Emilie Taman won a surprising number of polls not only in Sandy Hill/Lower Town but even in Vanier (and in 2011, the Orange Crush-fueled Dippers came within 10 points at large). At the other, lesser end, extension into Rothwell/Pineview/Beacon Hill has bolstered the latent Con base; though it's not like running a former New Brunswick cabinet minister is going to give CPC traction in O-V in the present climate. In the end, all either end does is dilute the Liberal status quo a little; it doesn't actually threaten it, or at least to be in a position of "threatening" is a long-term project. Not in 2019, though.
21/07/19 seasaw
Even if the Liberals were to win only one seat, this one will be it.
25/06/19 Laurence Putnam
One of the safest Liberal seats in the entire country. Quite simply: it has a perfect record.
This riding has voted Liberal, federally, since 1935 when it was created including in the Liberal washouts of 1958, 1984 and 2011. It also went Liberal provincially in 2018. Few ridings are as truly dyed-in-the-wool Liberal as this.
No challenger of any other party has topped even 29% of the vote in this riding since 1958, which Diefenbaker's candidate still lost by 20 points.
22/05/19 Sam
This riding seems to have more elections than any other, with a lot of by-elections recently (and one upcoming), but they've all elected Liberal candidates apart from one municipal by-election (still a progressive victory.) Needless to say, that Liberal trend goes back a long way... I don't see any sign of it changing now.
01/03/19 MF
During the '18 catastrophe, Ottawa-Vanier was one of two ridings where the Liberals won by more than 10 percentage points (the other being Ottawa South). A mailbox running under the Liberal banner would win Ottawa-Vanier.
28/02/19 Craig
The Liberals could nominate a red mailbox and win here, they are that safe. Even in the most difficult circumstances, they always win solidly here. The Franco-Ontarian community tends to be solidly Liberal, and the demographics here are also solidly in their column too with the large number of civil servants should keep this a blowout win for them especially with the NDP weakness. If the Liberals were to win ONE seat in Ontario, this would be it.
17/02/19 JW
The most reliably Liberal seat in Ontario, if not Canada. It has consistently elected Liberal federal and provincial members since 1970s (electing Liberals MPs consistently as far back as 1935). No other riding in the province can claim such consistency.

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