|Even when he was winning, John Baird had a stubborn 45% ceiling (and the Libs a stubborn 30% floor) that hinted how support for him was very qualified and contingent--OWN is a too Ontario-urban seat to be a "natural" Con stronghold in this day and age; while the provincial 3-way and NDP near-miss (and the fact that the Tories won with a smaller share than in 2014) shows the degree to which the riding's natural political gravity is shifting from the centre-right to the centre-left, "as it should". But still far, far more centre than left, unless 2018's ONDP surprise portends a bolder shift away from the Lib-vs-Con status quo.|
|Last week Conservative candidate Michael Lalonde announced that he is withdrawing from the race because of health problems:|
While the Conservatives look for a new candidate, that probably gives Anita Vandenbeld the head start here.
|Tories need either a known quantity like a John Baird, a high tide year like 2011 or very possibly both in order to win this riding now. As it doesn't look like they will have any of those things, I would say the smart money is on the Liberals.|
|Well, this riding has never went green or NDP federally. More of a swing riding between Conservative and Liberal. Some people in the riding are upset to what the Conservatives are doing provincially, and some even regret for voting for the Conservatives Provincially. And they dont feel comfortable voting for the federal Conservatives because they know the Conservatives are aligned with the Republicans & the trump machine in the USA. On CTV , it came out that 8/10 Canadians dont like Trump. Trump & Republicans are aligned with the Conservatives. |
Honestly, with the cuts Premier Ford made in Ontario in different areas, I dont think people want more cuts to programs and spending. Back in April,the Federal Conservatives voted on a budget bill to cut spending in every govt department. They voted to cut funding to programs on food safety, arts, defense, environment, health, and many other programs. I dont think people want to go through federal waves of public servants getting pink slips because their is a lack of job creation, and a lack of economic development coming from the ontario govt. Then to have more people going out of work, is not the answer. On top of this, their could be a possible recession in UK because of the BREXIT, and a possible recession in the USA. Now is not the time to be hacking and slashing federal govt programs and jobs in Canada , and in our communities.Plus, the riding has lower to mid income seniors, women, men, youth , that are already on the waiting list for social housing, and they have mental health& health issues. The riding also got badly hit by flooding, tornadoes, and people want action on the environment. To top it off, the riding is next to Ottawa Centre. Most people want more services in the riding from the downtown core.People remember the terrible cuts from Harper era, and it was terrible to live in the riding. We had single moms sleeping in hotel rooms because of the lack of social housing. We had young people that lost their minds, and they committed suicide because they had so much student loan debt, and very little funds to live off of, and there was no part time jobs for students. For women, it was a night mare because we had hardly any decent full time paying jobs for women to work in, and many women got stuck in bad situations because they were not able to find work. Many people had to move out West in order to work, and many people do not want to move or relocate for work. Huge problem in the riding that there is a lack of social care, social housing, recreational facilities for youth & people, lacking decent paying jobs& economic development. Although, the current Federal MP managed to get some seniors affordable housing in the riding. It took a long time because the Last Conservative MP did not do a thing about the social housing crisis for 10 years while he was in office. The riding has thousands of people waiting for social housing units. So glad to see the Federal MP has brought some units in the riding. Now we need more social housing, or some kind of program to stop landlords and property management firms from raising the rents. We need rent control badly in this riding.Maybe if the feds invested in a rent control program & brought some good paying jobs into Britannia, Lincoln fields& Bayshore & Carlingwood mall area , then maybe less people will end up on the waiting list for affordable housing list. We need better paying jobs, not lower waged retail jobs. Part of the problem we have in the riding is that people go out to Kanata to get a high tech job, and they find out the employers prefer to hire people who already live in Kanata. So therefore, we need techie jobs, call centre , Skilled trade jobs right here in Carling wood , Bayshore, Lincoln Fields, Britannia area for people who live in the riding. Overall, the current MP has done some work for the youth, and for the seniors.The Conservatives only seem to care about their own base,and people see it now because of what Harper govt did in the past, and also to what is happening in Ontario. I feel people will vote more for the Liberals this time . Although, I do see the NDP trying to bite into the Conservative & Liberal vote because many people in the riding are fed up with the Liberal & Conservative elites getting the money when we need the money invested more into job creation, social housing, rent control, cleaning up the Ottawa River. I am sure if the NDP bring up the issues across the Country, the Feds will bite and offer a few things to attract people who are looking at these things to win another term . Therefore, I see another 4 years for the Liberals in this riding.
|It will take a few more election cycles for the CPC to regain trust with public servants and Ottawa voters. Interesting note as well is that provincially the PC's lost support in Ottawa while gaining everywhere else. I think the CPC will make small gains but still comfortable Liberal hold.|
|I don't think even John Baird would win this seat in 2019 if he tried. The only reason it went PC provincially was a perfect 3-way split, which won't likely happen federally (Jeremy Roberts is likely toast in 2022 even if Ford wins a bigger majority). Ottawa has been trending away from the Conservatives the last few years, likely a response to the growth of populism.|
Northern Virginia is an excellent comparison to suburban Ottawa these days; this would be like inner Fairfax or Alexandria which are very solidly Democratic nowadays despite a Republican history. SNC-Lavalin is not a big issue here, certainly not compared to western or rural ridings or more working-class areas. Hence, Liberal hold.
|There's a lot of politics in this riding but I agree with Shakhtar's overall analysis of this situation. The scandal isn't insignificant but no Watergate in any meaningful sense of the word. With all that in mind, I have trouble imagining the liberals losing a 25-point advantage. It will, without a doubt, be closer, but still seems likely Liberal.|
||Shakhtar Donetsk |
|It's hard to say which of the characterizations of the SNC affair is sillier: Dr. Bear's nothing to see here folks or seasaw's claim that this is the greatest scandal since Watergate. This are manifestly hyperbolic, hyperpartisan claims. The truth is clearly somewhere in the middle: this is a serious scandal for the Libs and JT personally, and it keeps metastasizing with every misguided comms disaster put forward by the Liberal brain trust. Contrary to what Dr. Bear says, people are not moving on - an Ipsos poll today has the Cons up double digits on the Liberals. |
Now, the election is a long way away, and I agree with previous comments that this riding leans pretty strongly Liberal. They came within a couple of points of doubling up the Conservative vote last time around. And interestingly, even though the PCs won this riding in the provincial election, their share of the popular vote actually went DOWN - they won with less than a third of the vote, because of a crazy split between the Libs and NDP.
If the Conservatives win Ottawa West-Nepean, I think it's pretty much guaranteed it will be a Con majority on election night.
|While I agree that the Liberals have a clear advantage here, I disagree with Dr Bear's assessment of the SNC-LAVELIN scandal, it may be the biggest scandal since Watergate, also, the economy is showing signs of a slowdown. Of course, October's a long time away and anything can happen|
|Despite the opposition's hopes, the current SNC scandal has already started to move on out of the public's mind. My instincts say that this whole affair is going to be a distant memory come October, and more bread and butter issues will dominate the public's mind. The Liberal brand may be damaged but it is not decimated. For the moment the Liberals are in a position to lose marginal seats. A 25 point win is NOT a marginal win. Despite the CPC being a good candidate (as claimed by others), Ottawa West is staying in the red column unless we see a massive drop in Liberal support. Certainly has not happened yet.|
|A riding that isn't certain to go Liberal but likely to do so. The Conservatives will put a fight with Marc Lalonde, but this is in the Ottawa area which is leaning very Liberal. The fact that Bob Chiarelli nearly won in awful circumstances suggests that the fundamentals are Liberal enough that this only goes in a collapse.|
|Given the NOVA-ization of Ottawa, I think the Liberals will hold on here unless they really tank.|
|The current SNC-Lavalin affair is not going over well with people in this riding. Provincially, this riding flipped to the PCs last election in a razor-thin margin between the PCs/NDP. Anita Vandenbeld is personally popular, while her Conservative rival Mike Lalonde is very active in engaging the community. I predict a CPC victory by a slim margin with the Liberals in close second.|
|The Tories will take OWN back this time around, just like the PCs took it provincially (barely!). The Liberal candidate is a backbencher without much credibility or presence, and the party is in tatters thanks to the brewing scandals. The Tory candidate, Mike Lalonde, is rather strong - bilingual, educated, lives in the heart of the riding, and is a former member of the Armed Forces. He has also been very present, canvassing for well over a year, championing several issues or at least commenting on them, whereas the Liberal MP chooses to remain silent. I think it should be an easy win for him, even without knowing the rest of the candidates thus far.|
|The Tories barely won this provincially on a perfect three way split which you won't see federally. While it went Tory in the past, the margins were not big and John Baird had a high enough profile to give them a bit of a boost which they will lack this time around.|