Election Prediction Project

Ottawa West-Nepean
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:43:16

Constituency Profile


Lalonde, Michael

Vandenbeld, Anita


Anita Vandenbeld

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



65.21 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Anita Vandenbeld 3519955.90%
Abdul Abdi 1889330.00%
Marlene Rivier 61959.80%
Mark Brooks 17722.80%
Rod Taylor 7401.20%
Sam Heaton 1140.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 30.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Ottawa West-Nepean
   (99.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Ottawa Centre
   (0.38% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jeremy Roberts 1659032.82%
Chandra Pasma 1641532.48%
Bob Chiarelli * 1481029.3%
Pat Freel 19373.83%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3180.68%

16/03/19 seasaw
While I agree that the Liberals have a clear advantage here, I disagree with Dr Bear's assessment of the SNC-LAVELIN scandal, it may be the biggest scandal since Watergate, also, the economy is showing signs of a slowdown. Of course, October's a long time away and anything can happen
15/03/19 Dr.Bear
Despite the opposition's hopes, the current SNC scandal has already started to move on out of the public's mind. My instincts say that this whole affair is going to be a distant memory come October, and more bread and butter issues will dominate the public's mind. The Liberal brand may be damaged but it is not decimated. For the moment the Liberals are in a position to lose marginal seats. A 25 point win is NOT a marginal win. Despite the CPC being a good candidate (as claimed by others), Ottawa West is staying in the red column unless we see a massive drop in Liberal support. Certainly has not happened yet.
11/03/19 Sam
A riding that isn't certain to go Liberal but likely to do so. The Conservatives will put a fight with Marc Lalonde, but this is in the Ottawa area which is leaning very Liberal. The fact that Bob Chiarelli nearly won in awful circumstances suggests that the fundamentals are Liberal enough that this only goes in a collapse.
06/03/19 MF
Given the NOVA-ization of Ottawa, I think the Liberals will hold on here unless they really tank.
06/03/19 G. Wilson
The current SNC-Lavalin affair is not going over well with people in this riding. Provincially, this riding flipped to the PCs last election in a razor-thin margin between the PCs/NDP. Anita Vandenbeld is personally popular, while her Conservative rival Mike Lalonde is very active in engaging the community. I predict a CPC victory by a slim margin with the Liberals in close second.
04/03/19 MissBaum
The Tories will take OWN back this time around, just like the PCs took it provincially (barely!). The Liberal candidate is a backbencher without much credibility or presence, and the party is in tatters thanks to the brewing scandals. The Tory candidate, Mike Lalonde, is rather strong - bilingual, educated, lives in the heart of the riding, and is a former member of the Armed Forces. He has also been very present, canvassing for well over a year, championing several issues or at least commenting on them, whereas the Liberal MP chooses to remain silent. I think it should be an easy win for him, even without knowing the rest of the candidates thus far.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
The Tories barely won this provincially on a perfect three way split which you won't see federally. While it went Tory in the past, the margins were not big and John Baird had a high enough profile to give them a bit of a boost which they will lack this time around.

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