|It will take a few more election cycles for the CPC to regain trust with public servants and Ottawa voters. Interesting note as well is that provincially the PC's lost support in Ottawa while gaining everywhere else. I think the CPC will make small gains but still comfortable Liberal hold.|
|I don't think even John Baird would win this seat in 2019 if he tried. The only reason it went PC provincially was a perfect 3-way split, which won't likely happen federally (Jeremy Roberts is likely toast in 2022 even if Ford wins a bigger majority). Ottawa has been trending away from the Conservatives the last few years, likely a response to the growth of populism.|
Northern Virginia is an excellent comparison to suburban Ottawa these days; this would be like inner Fairfax or Alexandria which are very solidly Democratic nowadays despite a Republican history. SNC-Lavalin is not a big issue here, certainly not compared to western or rural ridings or more working-class areas. Hence, Liberal hold.
|There's a lot of politics in this riding but I agree with Shakhtar's overall analysis of this situation. The scandal isn't insignificant but no Watergate in any meaningful sense of the word. With all that in mind, I have trouble imagining the liberals losing a 25-point advantage. It will, without a doubt, be closer, but still seems likely Liberal.|
||Shakhtar Donetsk |
|It's hard to say which of the characterizations of the SNC affair is sillier: Dr. Bear's nothing to see here folks or seasaw's claim that this is the greatest scandal since Watergate. This are manifestly hyperbolic, hyperpartisan claims. The truth is clearly somewhere in the middle: this is a serious scandal for the Libs and JT personally, and it keeps metastasizing with every misguided comms disaster put forward by the Liberal brain trust. Contrary to what Dr. Bear says, people are not moving on - an Ipsos poll today has the Cons up double digits on the Liberals. |
Now, the election is a long way away, and I agree with previous comments that this riding leans pretty strongly Liberal. They came within a couple of points of doubling up the Conservative vote last time around. And interestingly, even though the PCs won this riding in the provincial election, their share of the popular vote actually went DOWN - they won with less than a third of the vote, because of a crazy split between the Libs and NDP.
If the Conservatives win Ottawa West-Nepean, I think it's pretty much guaranteed it will be a Con majority on election night.
|While I agree that the Liberals have a clear advantage here, I disagree with Dr Bear's assessment of the SNC-LAVELIN scandal, it may be the biggest scandal since Watergate, also, the economy is showing signs of a slowdown. Of course, October's a long time away and anything can happen|
|Despite the opposition's hopes, the current SNC scandal has already started to move on out of the public's mind. My instincts say that this whole affair is going to be a distant memory come October, and more bread and butter issues will dominate the public's mind. The Liberal brand may be damaged but it is not decimated. For the moment the Liberals are in a position to lose marginal seats. A 25 point win is NOT a marginal win. Despite the CPC being a good candidate (as claimed by others), Ottawa West is staying in the red column unless we see a massive drop in Liberal support. Certainly has not happened yet.|
|A riding that isn't certain to go Liberal but likely to do so. The Conservatives will put a fight with Marc Lalonde, but this is in the Ottawa area which is leaning very Liberal. The fact that Bob Chiarelli nearly won in awful circumstances suggests that the fundamentals are Liberal enough that this only goes in a collapse.|
|Given the NOVA-ization of Ottawa, I think the Liberals will hold on here unless they really tank.|
|The current SNC-Lavalin affair is not going over well with people in this riding. Provincially, this riding flipped to the PCs last election in a razor-thin margin between the PCs/NDP. Anita Vandenbeld is personally popular, while her Conservative rival Mike Lalonde is very active in engaging the community. I predict a CPC victory by a slim margin with the Liberals in close second.|
|The Tories will take OWN back this time around, just like the PCs took it provincially (barely!). The Liberal candidate is a backbencher without much credibility or presence, and the party is in tatters thanks to the brewing scandals. The Tory candidate, Mike Lalonde, is rather strong - bilingual, educated, lives in the heart of the riding, and is a former member of the Armed Forces. He has also been very present, canvassing for well over a year, championing several issues or at least commenting on them, whereas the Liberal MP chooses to remain silent. I think it should be an easy win for him, even without knowing the rest of the candidates thus far.|
|The Tories barely won this provincially on a perfect three way split which you won't see federally. While it went Tory in the past, the margins were not big and John Baird had a high enough profile to give them a bit of a boost which they will lack this time around.|