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Oxford
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:28
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Aldred, Melody

Birtch-Carriere, Lisa

Chambers, Matthew

Knight, Brendan

MacKenzie, Dave

Martin, Wendy


Incumbent:

Dave MacKenzie

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

113790
108656

46359
45240

2247.53 km²
50.6/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dave MacKenzie ** 2596645.70%
Don McKay 1829932.20%
Zoe Kunschner 940616.50%
Mike Farlow 20043.50%
Melody Ann Aldred 11752.10%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2878358.98%
1241825.44%
47079.64%
21104.32%
Other 7861.61%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Oxford
   (97.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Brant
   (2.7% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Ernie Hardeman * 2915255.73%
Tara King 1591730.43%
James Howard 36206.92%
Albert De Jong 22544.31%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

903221.42%
1948546.20%
1085125.73%
20454.85%
Other 7611.80%


21/10/19 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
Not much to say here other than this should be a CPC hold.
11/10/19 R.O.
24.146.17.200
Dave Mackenzie has been the mp of Oxford since 2004 , Woodstock has grown somewhat but mostly a rural riding which usually votes conservative.
18/08/20 A.S.
99.225.32.21
Evidence of how things have electorally 'sorted' themselves in blunt urban-rural terms: there were quite a few non-CPC polls in 2015, but they were *all* either in Woodstock, Ingersoll, or Tillsonburg. Meanwhile, there was a flurry of polls in SW Oxford where CHP was second place, or came temptingly close to the same. Until/unless 401-corridor auto industry growth really tips the balance in Woodstock/Ingersoll, this looks to be yet another heartland Con rubber stamp.
09/04/19 Sam
86.188.97.204
This is a pretty average SW Ontario riding, and as such it will go Conservative and especially for Dave Mackenzie.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
This is one of the more reliably Tory ridings in rural Southwestern Ontario so I expect them to easily hold this.



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