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Parry Sound-Muskoka
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-04-26 20:44:11
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Cowie, Trisha

Young, Tom


Incumbent:

Tony Clement

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

94398
91233

77291
40501

12542.62 km²
7.5/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Tony Clement ** 2220643.30%
Trisha Cowie 1993738.90%
Matt McCarthy 518310.10%
Glen Hodgson 37047.20%
Duncan Bell 1210.20%
Gordie Merton 880.20%
Albert Gray Smith 400.10%


2011 Results (redistributed)

2586455.73%
1121724.17%
533011.48%
37768.14%
Other 2220.48%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Parry Sound-Muskoka
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Norm Miller * 2266248.07%
Erin Horvath 1038522.03%
Matt Richter 943820.02%
Brenda Rhodes 40718.64%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1015826.25%
1576140.73%
499912.92%
748419.34%
Other 2960.76%


09/06/19 seasaw
99.225.244.232
I wouldn't be so quick to call this for the CPC. Remember, the Liberals held this riding from 1993-2006, and their 2006 defeat was by less than 50 votes, Trisha Cowie came close last time and she's running again, and has already started campaigning, the CPC doesn't even have a candidate yet. So, TCTC for now, we'll be able to make a more accurate prediction as the campaign unravels
27/04/19 The Jackal
99.236.220.4
Even with Tony Clement not running here this should be a cakewalk for the CPC especially how poorly the Liberals fared in the provincial election last year. It will also be interesting to see how the Green Party does here in October.
21/04/19 PFR
99.234.235.254
Without the threat of Tony Clement splitting the vote this is staying Conservative. With the tories riding high in the polls the margin of victory will increase.
08/04/19 Mizisuga
67.21.155.29
Clement isn't running which would threatenthe Conservatives, and general Ontario polling has a slight CPC lead, so I don't see why the riding hasn't been called yet.
06/04/19 Craig
24.213.108.184
No Tony Clement, no problem. Norm Miller would be a popular choice here and would win easily, but even with generic candidates this definitely leans conservative, especially once you get out of the resort areas. Even if Clement ran as an independent, he would likely get nowhere as the party brand is much more popular than he is.
The Liberal vote from 2015 likely won't hold up either. The Greens may have one of their best results in Ontario here especially looking at the provincial results - possibly near 20% (they do quite well in the cottage country resort towns). They may pick up a good chunk of the Liberal votes, but all that will do otherwise is further split the opposition. Conservative hold.
31/03/19 Sam
109.146.233.52
It seems as if the admin knows something we don't and has therefore rated this as TCTC, but nonetheless the news points to a Conservative victory, this is a rural riding that looks closer than it is, with the Liberals crashing, until they had the surge in 2015. They'll struggle to hold all of that. I would argue Tony Clement is less of a factor than he may seem, and any damage done would be erased if Norm Miller ran. It should be a more comfortable victory for the Conservatives this time.
27/03/19 Laurence Putnam
50.68.187.24
Conservatives will win regardless of what Tony Clement decides to do. Clement knows very well it would be a fool's errand to mount an independent effort anyway, I would be surprised if he decided to do it. Considering the dark cloud looming over his head now, and further his relatively limited history in the riding (he's from Brampton, remember) I don't think this is a ‘Clement’ riding as much as it's a Conservative riding. Doubt Clement would crack 10% on his own anyway.
25/02/19 Kumar Patel
174.112.172.78
After the Clement scandal, the buzz is that MPP Norm Miller, son of former Premier Frank Miller will run federally.
Either way should be a reliable seat for the CPC. I expect the GPC to be a strong third, ahead of the NDP.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
Unless Tony Clement runs as an independent, this is a fairly reliable Tory stronghold so Tory hold.



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