|How much of the previous vote was pure Tony Clement support and not necessarily CPC support? How much better will Trisha Cowie's ground game be now that this is her second kick at the can? Now that the PPC will be in the debates, how much CPC support will be stripped away, rendering the riding vulnerable to the Liberals? I don't have those answers, but they make me think that this might not be a sure-fire CPC hold. Were I compelled to make a call, I would say Team Blue holds it. Nevertheless, if we see a Liberal gain, I would not be overly surprised.|
|Sure, the Libs held this right up to the "Landslide Tony" squeaker in 2006; but it must be remembered that Andy Mitchell had earned a good rep in cabinet and caucus and thus likely latterly outperformed his party's "natural" base. Now it's one of those many ridings where a Lib runner-up in 2015's trying again--some bidding to re-challenge incumbents, some (as here) bidding for open seats. But...again, Mitchell was more of an exceptional case, and while a certain vacation-country expatriate Toronto-ness does make for something of a promisingly latent Lib base in Muskoka, they're just as willing to settle for moderate blue a la Tony Selfie/Norm Miller/Ernie Eves. And even that latent Lib base--or even a touch of the Con base--could be prone to Green raiding; provincially, this was their best riding in 2014, their next-best after Schreiner in 2018, and it used to be home base for the idiosyncratic Richard Thomas Green phenomenon. But it'd be a stretch for PSM to go Vancouver Island on us, even though there are geographic and even demographic parallels...|
|This riding went LPC by 7.5% in 2004, while former provincial health minister and CPC leadership candidate Clement only won it by a hair in 2006. As an open seat, it tilts a bit more conservative than the province. LPC candidate Cowie will be able to build on her strong 2015 performance, while the CPC recently nominated Huntsville mayor Scott Aitchison, who should already be well known to at least a portion of the riding. If the LPC win Ontario handily, which looks very likely at this point, then they should be able to win here. Based on current polling, momentum, and propensity of 1st term governments to get reelected, this riding is a tossup.|
|I wouldn't be so quick to call this for the CPC. Remember, the Liberals held this riding from 1993-2006, and their 2006 defeat was by less than 50 votes, Trisha Cowie came close last time and she's running again, and has already started campaigning, the CPC doesn't even have a candidate yet. So, TCTC for now, we'll be able to make a more accurate prediction as the campaign unravels|
|Even with Tony Clement not running here this should be a cakewalk for the CPC especially how poorly the Liberals fared in the provincial election last year. It will also be interesting to see how the Green Party does here in October.|
|Without the threat of Tony Clement splitting the vote this is staying Conservative. With the tories riding high in the polls the margin of victory will increase.|
|Clement isn't running which would threatenthe Conservatives, and general Ontario polling has a slight CPC lead, so I don't see why the riding hasn't been called yet.|
|No Tony Clement, no problem. Norm Miller would be a popular choice here and would win easily, but even with generic candidates this definitely leans conservative, especially once you get out of the resort areas. Even if Clement ran as an independent, he would likely get nowhere as the party brand is much more popular than he is.|
The Liberal vote from 2015 likely won't hold up either. The Greens may have one of their best results in Ontario here especially looking at the provincial results - possibly near 20% (they do quite well in the cottage country resort towns). They may pick up a good chunk of the Liberal votes, but all that will do otherwise is further split the opposition. Conservative hold.
|It seems as if the admin knows something we don't and has therefore rated this as TCTC, but nonetheless the news points to a Conservative victory, this is a rural riding that looks closer than it is, with the Liberals crashing, until they had the surge in 2015. They'll struggle to hold all of that. I would argue Tony Clement is less of a factor than he may seem, and any damage done would be erased if Norm Miller ran. It should be a more comfortable victory for the Conservatives this time.|
|Conservatives will win regardless of what Tony Clement decides to do. Clement knows very well it would be a fool's errand to mount an independent effort anyway, I would be surprised if he decided to do it. Considering the dark cloud looming over his head now, and further his relatively limited history in the riding (he's from Brampton, remember) I don't think this is a Clement riding as much as it's a Conservative riding. Doubt Clement would crack 10% on his own anyway.|
|After the Clement scandal, the buzz is that MPP Norm Miller, son of former Premier Frank Miller will run federally. |
Either way should be a reliable seat for the CPC. I expect the GPC to be a strong third, ahead of the NDP.
|Unless Tony Clement runs as an independent, this is a fairly reliable Tory stronghold so Tory hold.|