Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:52

Constituency Profile


Chisu, Corneliu

Forint, Peter

Higdon, Eileen

Musarat, Cyma

O'Connell, Jennifer


Jennifer O'Connell

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



652.50 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jennifer O'Connell 2975750.30%
Corneliu Chisu ** 2259138.20%
Pamela Downward 54469.20%
Anthony Jordan Navarro 13652.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 960.20%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Pickering-Scarborough East
   (55.88% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (25.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (18.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Peter Bethlenfalvy 2244742.2%
Nerissa Cariño 1703332.02%
Ibrahim Daniyal 1085120.4%
Adam Narraway 21053.96%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5151.13%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberals hold on here, the PPC running a former CPC MP will hurt the CPC cause here.
08/10/19 Pickering Fan
It might be premature to call this riding Liberal. It is generally a swing riding that has alternated between liberal and conservative (and even NDP provincially). The liberal incumbent is not high profile and came in on the popularity of Trudeau and may lose votes on his recent controversial issues e.g. SNC Lavalin and blackface. The performance of their leaders in the recent debate including climate change may help the NDP and Green candidates. Lots of working class families that may gravitate to the conservatives pocketbook proposals 'money in your pocket'. May depend on leaders performance next couple weeks.
08/10/19 prognosticator15
This is one of few Ontario ridings where a star PPC candidate is likely to be the main challenger, and a parachuted CPC candidate has no chance (London North Centre and Etobicoke North are others, even if elsewhere PPC support is next to none). The CPC vote is likely to switch here to the one who seriously opposes unrestricted migration, globalist elites' climate money grab and progressivist political dictatorship (of suppressing critique of 'human rights' by law, taking money away from pro-life community organizations etc.). Soft Liberal/newly anti-Trudeau vote emerging in the past four years is likely to switch to the former MP as well. O'Connell is a typical accidental winner of 2015, a product of leftist social science education with no constituency of her own to take with her, dependent almost entirely on performances by the Great Canadian Drama Teacher and on media control of the agenda and of the debates (the closest other similar MP would be Tabbara in Kitchener South - Hespeler). Trudeau theatrics aside, this is a politically moderate riding, with mostly middle-class residents concerned of bread and butter issues where Liberals fail to beat the two parties of the right, but it is Chisu who will get to at least the level of 2018 provincial PC winner (and if he wins, who knows which of the two parties he ends up with by next election). With the NDP tide in Toronto rising mildly during the campaign, Dippers indeed have an outside chance here as well (Greens are unimportant). Beyond that, I question A.S.'s emphasis on the impact of urbanization here and elsewhere (in Milton, for example) as voting change patterns tend to lag patterns of development substantially - at least, it takes a few years for former rural areas to show 'urban' voting patterns, and then not uniformally in progressivist direction, Doug Ford's success in suburban Toronto last year being a good illustration. This year, it will be quite close, with the main question of whether Chisu is able to attract enough votes to get ahead, including some potential 'old NDP' types uncomfortable with NDP's and Liberals' identity politics agenda; who knows, maybe these voters may even become decisive this year in defeating indoctrinated left millenials' identity and globalist agenda.
07/10/19 R.O.
I just don’t see the people’s party getting 25 % of the vote here, polls for Ontario show them polling in single digits. And the few ridings where I’ve seen small signs for them have just been on public property .Corneliu Chisu was a 1 time mp for the old Pickering Scarborough East riding but not necessary high profile. New cpc candidate Cyma Musarat isn’t high profile either, but she did run provincially in Toronto last election. The outcome will largely depend on how final week plays out.
16/09/19 Tory Revert
According to the official Leader's Debate Commission, the PPC has a legitimate chance of winning this seat. According to riding level polls conducted for the commission by Ekos, at least 25% of respondents said it was ‘possible’ that they would vote for the People's Party candidate. Who would have thought that Maxime had a shot here.
12/09/19 DurhamDave
The Liberals are polling well in Ontario and have the incumbent advantage.
Interestingly, the former CPC MP here is running as a PPC candidate so the Conservatives will have to deal with vote splitting here more than the other Durham ridings. Enough that the PPC will be a serious threat to them.
As of the date of this submission, I can't seem to find a NDP candidate here either, so that should give the Liberals a boost if they don't get somebody to run here.
I expect the Liberals to hold on to this one unless they face a 2011 meltdown, which I don't see happening.
23/08/20 Dr. Bear
The Libs may be polling 7 points down from 2015 in Ontario but that is not an even distribution. Much of that is in rural areas where the Liberal brand is even more tarnished than in urban areas. The CPC is down 2.5 points from 2015 in Ontario. Couple that with the former CPC MP running for the PPC, unless I am missing something here, this riding has no business being TCTC. Liberal hold.
08/08/20 A.S.
Chisu's definitely-maybe a nightmare scenario for CPC in a seat where Pickering's urbanizing demographics increasingly favour the Liberals, no matter how much Uxbridge may try to skew things the other way. And I wouldn't necessarily count on a counter-nightmare situation of the NDP riding the coattails of the surprising third-of-the-vote provincial result last year...
28/06/19 Craig
At this point, I'd give the advantage to the Liberals, but that is still subject to change. They should do very well in the southern part of the riding, particularly near and south of the 401 which is fairly affluent and well educated. However, the Conservatives will probably also do very well in Uxbridge. That leaves north Pickering which is the swing area.
Given the recent polling trends, the Liberals may be solidifying their support in their core area, which will likely help them a lot. The fact that the former MP is running for the PPC may also split votes too particularly in the northern part of the riding. For that reason, I'd give the advantage to the Liberals. It's not as safe as Ajax though.
08/06/19 Marco Ricci
It has been announced that former Conservative MP Corneliu Chisu will be running for the PPC. It will be interesting to see whether that takes a few points away from the Conservatives.
26/03/19 Sam
Wouldn't call this as safe for the Liberals yet. This is a swing riding which could go Conservative if that is in line with the national picture.
03/03/19 seasaw
While a Liberal call may be safe, it's a little premature to call it at the moment. We don't know what kind of impact this scandal is going to have on the Liberals, won't be positive for sure, but how big of a negative, remains to be seen
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
It took some heavy Liberal collapses for this to flip conservative in 2011 (federally) and in 2018 (provincially). While I do expect the Liberals to slide a bit, I'm not expecting many changes except in marginal seats. This is not a marginal seat.

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