Election Prediction Project

Richmond Hill
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 08:50:52

Constituency Profile


DeVita, Adam

Jowhari, Majid

Kohli, Ichha

Menegakis, Costas

Tvorogov, Igor

Wevers, Otto


Majid Jowhari

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



39.92 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Majid Jowhari 2303246.90%
Michael Parsa 2127543.30%
Adam DeVita 39508.00%
Gwendolyn Veenema 8561.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 40.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Richmond Hill
   (95.91% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Daisy Wai 2222451.24%
Reza Moridi * 1210827.92%
Marco Coletta 749017.27%
Walter Bauer 12482.88%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5671.58%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Another seat that will be interesting to watch tomorrow. Close last time. Former MP (Albeit from another riding) running here again this time for the CPC. This seat stayed Liberal every year in the Harper yrs. sans 2011 and was a riding that the Liberals would have won in the Chretien yrs. even with a united right. I think the Liberals hold on here tomorrow.
18/10/19 R.O.
In an odd twist the former liberal mpp for this riding Reza Moridi has endorsed the cpc candidate Costas Menegakis. Saying its cause Majid Gowhari is too closely associated with Iranian government. Not sure what affect it have on the race but could have an impact.
11/10/19 R.O.
This area has typically swung between the liberals and conservatives in recent years. cpc candidate Costas Menegakis was mp of the riding from 2011-2015 and now trying to make a political comeback. Liberal mp Majid Jowhari is a first term mp elected in 2015 like many liberals were. Both Scheer and Trudeau have been to the riding so far indicating it’s a competitive area.
23/09/19 Nick M.
The 905 swings wildly and I would place the National campaign polling numbers to determine this riding.
Locally the popular progressive city Councillor (Karen C...) has endorsed the Conservative candidate. So if it was locally decided, edge is going for the Conservatives.
If Federal polls say the LPC and CPC are neck and neck, edge goes to Conservatives.
Unless LPC wins majority government,this riding is going conservative.
21/09/19 Hans Luder
I am pretty confident that the Liberals will hold this seat. if not for the sake of the popularity of the Liberal Party in the riding, then through the hard work of Majid Jowhari. While I’ve never met this MP, I am impressed with his effort to support and serve the people in this riding. He works tirelessly in the community and will be rewarded with re-election.
08/08/20 A.S.
Costas got party-switched out of running where he ran last time; so why not run in what's more truly his successor riding, particularly as it unexpectedly proved to be almost as tight a race last time? (What helped and helps is that the west-of-Bayview SinoCon demo is far more extensive here than in AORRH, making up for the more "settled" moderation of Old Richmond Hill.)
12/04/19 Sam
With the chance of a Liberal majority being severely diminished, and the Conservative vote holding up here, it seems as if easy ridings like this are now in the Conservative column. The Liberals will have to let some go in the York region, they'll be focusing on Markham-Thornhill and Vaughan-Woodbridge rather than here if they want to maximise their resources.
01/03/19 Sam
One of the most likely Conservative gains in Ontario. The Conservative Costas Menegakis is well-known and represented part of the riding until he was defeated in the neighbouring Aurora riding, and will be a good fighter for the Conservatives. The Liberals aren't defeated yet but they have a lot to be worried about, as it would take the smallest of swings against them to defeat them, which is what has been seen in several Ontario by-elections.

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