Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:00

Constituency Profile


Hua, Kevin

Kubanek, Gordon

Musende, Alain

Poilievre, Pierre

Rodgers, Chris


Pierre Poilievre

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1177.85 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre Poilievre 2776246.90%
Chris Rodgers 2591343.70%
Kc Larocque 36326.10%
Deborah Coyne 19323.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (59.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   (40.81% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Ottawa South
   (0.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Goldie Ghamari 2579851.33%
Courtney Potter 1130822.5%
Theresa Qadri 976819.44%
Gordon Kubanek 19853.95%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3080.78%

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
A lot of Liberals are hopeful they gain this riding but I doubt it happens. Poilievre should hold on here. He's a front bench minister for a Scheer government if that happens. Even if the Liberals win again he should stay as an effective voice in opposition.
10/10/19 R.O.
Pierre Poliever has been mp for this riding for some time, the fact he held on in 2015 . a year that saw terrible cpc results in the Ottawa area . the cpc also held Leeds Grenville easily which borders the rural part of this riding to the south. True parts of the riding have grown , a lot of new housing built in the Stittsville area in recent years.
01/10/19 Political Junkie
While I agree that PP has the edge here, I'd be more comfortable moving this call as TCTC. Rodgers is back running for the LPC and came within a 1849 votes last time of turning the riding red -- had 925 votes gone the other way, Pierre wouldn't be in office. This time, yes, Chris faces headwins and PP has a good ground game, but the riding is changing as more people move to newly developed areas/subdivisions across Stittsville, Manotick and other spots. It's not the rural behemoth that delivered PP victory previously. At best it's a toss-up.
30/09/19 S.J.
Poilievre is a polarizing figure, but Conservative partisans love him. This part of Ottawa is very conservative and rural, and while the Liberals will have a decent showing in Riverside South and Stittsville, the rural areas will hold strong for the tories. It will remain the only blue riding in Ottawa.
13/08/20 A.S.
I can't exactly say Poilievre has *gained* profile--he already had profile going into 2015, albeit for many of the wrong reasons--and yes, if one rawly extrapolates from 2015's result and subsequent growth patterns, things shouldn't be working electorally on his behalf in Carleton. However, I find that a lot of these unforeseen electoral scares have a way of "sobering up" the survivors so that they buck the shifting demos and prevail in the following election, at times with even solider numbers than before--wouldn't be surprised if that's in store for Poilievre. Or at least, it would truly take Scheer becoming the Stephane Dion to Harper's Paul Martin for Carleton to be the last Ottawa Conservative domino to fall. And regression from 2014 or not, the provincial Tories still managed an absolute majority in 2018.
25/07/19 Sam
And in response to myself, now thry are! I still believe the cpc will win, but this is the Ottawa region after all. Might actually be worth moving this to TCTC.
19/05/19 Sam
One day, Carleton will be a Liberal riding again, maybe even with Chris Rodgers as its MP. But not this time. The Liberals could well hold every riding it has in Ottawa/Gatineau, and I'd argue there's a high chance of it. But Carleton? It's gone for them this time; they're just not doing well enough.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
Pre-SNC this could have been a seat the Liberals could have fought for, but Poilievre has gained profile and won the seat with a good margin in 2015.
11/04/19 Laurence Putnam
Let me just assure Mr. Patel that some of us on the right also find Pierre Poilievre to be somewhat of an irritant. So too does the government however, in his high profile critic role, which as others have said, on a ‘rebound’ election for the Conservatives (although to what extent not yet known) ought to auger well for his chances here.
In a future election where the rising tide is once again with the Liberals, Pierre could find himself in some trouble as he almost did in 2015.
But not this time.
15/03/19 Dr.Bear
Another riding whose results surprised me in 2015. I never would have through the results could be so close, yet here we are. While I would again predict a CPC win, 3 points is too close of a margin for anything definitive. The Liberals do have a record working against them, however demographic change has made this seat more Liberal-friendly. My gut says leaning CPC but TCTC for now.
03/03/19 seasaw
This one was a little closer than expected last time. Last time, it was a change election, last time Justin Trudeau was very well liked. This time, Liberal leadership on shaky grounds, so, I expect Pollievre to win by a bigger margin than last time
28/02/19 Kumar Patel
Progressives find Poilievre to be irritating, but he is very visible in his riding and popular among his constituents. It will be a close one again (influx on Liberal-friendly voters), but the Conservatives will hold.
28/02/19 Craig
Could Pierre Poilievre be in danger? Perhaps, since Carleton has changed so much just in the last decade. This used to be one of the safest Conservative seats in Ontario, but the close race in 2015, combined with one of only a few *regressions* in 2018 (Doug Ford is not popular in Ottawa) could make this interesting - even if the Conservatives are heading for government. I'd compare this to Romney-Clinton or Tory-Remain territory.
This is an affluent area and quite well educated, where they don't like high taxes or bigger government, but also don't like cultural populism like immigration issues. Too close to call, and it could easily go against the national tide here.

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