Election Prediction Project

St. Catharines
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:11

Constituency Profile


Bittle, Chris

DeRoo, Allan

Mason, Travis

Van Meer, Dennis

Waler, Krystina


Chris Bittle

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



55.01 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Chris Bittle 2487043.20%
Rick Dykstra ** 2163737.60%
Susan Erskine-Fournier 951116.50%
Jim Fannon 14882.60%
Saleh Waziruddin 850.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4360.88%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. Catharines
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jennie Stevens 1891136.61%
Sandie Bellows 1735333.6%
Jim Bradley * 1267124.53%
Colin Ryrie 19233.72%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4751.04%

08/10/19 R.O.
This riding was a surprise pick up for the ndp in the 2018 provincial election although I don’t know if that means much federally. The race would seem to be between liberal mp Chris Bittle and rookie cpc candidate Krystina Waler . Scheer has visted the riding to campaign for her but unsure if any other leaders have been here yet.
16/09/19 Rational Optimist
I don't have too much to add except to say that I think a call for the NDP here is a bit out there at this point, but also that I agree with A.S. that this is not as much a bellwether as some might think. The Grits only took it by five points in 2015, so it was not an especially strong showing for an Ontario riding for them.
The Liberals could definitely lose this to the Tories while keeping true bellwethers like Peterborough (which tracked very closely with the provincial margin as a whole in 2015).
14/09/19 Tyler
Although this riding has historically been a swing riding of Liberal or Conservative, judging the Ontario provincial election and how St. Catharines went NDP after 40 years... I’m giving it to the NDP on this one as well.
11/08/20 A.S.
I wouldn't make too much of St. Catharines' recent federal bellwetherness, given the universality or quasi-universality of too many of the elections in question--plus the distracting matter of the provincial record of non-stop Jim Bradley Liberal until falling to the *NDP* in 2018. But it's the most suburban-service-town-middle-class of Niagara's ridings, which probably presently gives Bittle a safe-bet leg up in the face of a status-quo election. And it had 2018's worst PC share in Niagara--though a lot of that was due to Bradley's persistence. (Yes, a Dipper possibly elected through a strong Liberal candidate splitting the right. You got a problem with that?)
19/04/19 Sam
A pretty average swing riding, not really much else to say except I don't think Bittle has been a particularly strong incumbent, having been shafted into the non-entity position of Deputy House Leader.
20/03/19 Stevo
Probably the #2 bellwether in Ontario after Peterborough, though the NDP is historically much weaker here (or it WAS weak, until the 2018 provincial election). Whichever of the two major parties wins the most seats nationally will be favoured to take St. Catharines.
26/02/19 seasaw
This has been a bellwether riding federally, since 1984, the riding has elected a member from the governing party. Don't think anything'll change this time, so we have to wait till close to election to predict this one

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