Election Prediction Project

Toronto-St. Paul's
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:44:17

Constituency Profile


Bennett, Carolyn

Climenhaga, Sarah

Maguire, Greg

Truesdell, Jae


Carolyn Bennett

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13.10 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Carolyn Bennett ** 3148155.30%
Marnie MacDougall 1537627.00%
Noah Richler 838614.70%
Kevin Farmer 17293.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2670.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. Paul's
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jill Andrew 1884335.96%
Jess Spindler 1749833.39%
Andrew Kirsch 1378026.3%
Teresa Pun 16903.23%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5211.18%

09/06/19 Cory Martin
Even though this riding is held provincially by the Ontario NDP. It will remain Liberal.
10/05/19 Craig
Affluent and highly educated, St. Paul's is basically tailor-made for today's Liberal Party. It took a complete meltdown for the Liberals to cough up St. Paul's provincially (which was a complete shock and likely a fluke). Even with SNC-Lavalin (which isn't a big issue among the creative class), no poll shows the Liberals 20 points back in third place in Ontario.
In addition, Carolyn Bennett is very well-liked here and should easily win again. The Conservative ceiling here is in the high 20s, which is never high enough to win under any circumstances (in this era of right-populism, a decrease from 2015 is not inconceivable). While Jagmeet Singh might be an asset for the NDP here, they traditionally do very poorly among affluent voters. The result should be another easy Liberal win.
10/04/19 seasaw
This was once a bellwether riding, but now it is perhaps one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. The SNC-LAVELIN scandal may sway some votes to the opposition, however, it won't even be enough for the results of this riding to be a Liberal landslide
06/04/19 Legolas
The NDP got a really good vote split to win this seat provincially but I do not see it happening at the federal level, especially with Bennett running again. Easy LPC hold.
06/04/19 Sam
This is the one of the safest Liberal seats in the GTA and has seen several good results for them. With a prominent and dedicated, perhaps divisive (not that she would anger many of the voters here as opposed to elsewhere), MP like Carolyn Bennett, they'll hold this for sure.
04/04/19 Stevo
Ground zero for pinkie-in-the-air (to quote Doug Ford) champagne-sipping elites rendered even MORE elite by the housing bubble. Even though Carolyn Bennett has been a very poor cabinet minister, and even though the Liberals are in decline, it won't translate to much more than a slightly decreased share here.
05/03/19 MF
St. Paul's is about as safely Liberal as Westmount at this point. Filled with the 'too educated to vote Conservative, too bourgeois to vote NDP' types, Carolyn Bennett was able to survive the Iggy '11 debacle pretty comfortably. Unless they fall below 20% of the popular vote in Ontario, the Liberals are safe here.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Not withstanding the NDP upset provincially, this is a quintessential Liberal riding, too rich to vote NDP, too educated to vote Tory so Liberals would have to fall to single digits in seats in Ontario to be in any danger of losing this.

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