Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:29

Constituency Profile


Hu, Sean

Internicola, Anthony

Julius, Larisa

Ramdeen, Randi

Yip, Jean


Jean Yip

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



21.37 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Arnold Chan ** 2158751.90%
Bin Chang 1580238.00%
Laura Patrick 32637.90%
Debra Scott 5701.40%
Jude Coutinho 3340.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Aris Babikian 1858250.4%
Soo Wong * 1042928.29%
Tasleem Riaz 643417.45%
Lydia West 6351.72%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3861.12%

21/10/19 GW
The Liberal party (Jean Yip campaign team) has been very complacent while the Conservative party (Sean Hu campaign team) has been more hard-working constantly sending out mailers and pamphlets. Incumbents ought not to get too comfortable - especially if they were elected in a by-election only a few years ago. Especially after this same riding elected a Conservative MPP with 50% popularity vote just last year. Of all Scarborough ridings, this one is the most likely to turn Conservative.
While there are some red Liberal signs on lawns, there is twice that number of blue Conservative signs in my neighbourhood. It seems to me that those who traditionally vote Liberal don't want to advertise it this time around, in this election. This is certainly the effect of how PM Trudeau has personally affected the reputation (and election chances) of the federal Liberal party.
20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold, could be close but can't see the Liberals losing here.
16/10/19 Nick M.
If CPC can win this riding, they have a chance of winning a majority.
The Ford family is popular out here for it's subways into suburban Toronto.
The Provincial result of over 50% for the PC's makes me suspicious that that this could be a surprise pickup for the CPC.
Liberals are favorites, but I think the outcome is going to be a nail biter.
13/10/19 Chan Yuk Wong
The all candidates debate showed which candidate can represent the riding best. Jean Yip at shown her hard work and her contribution to the riding in her two short years after picking up the seat from her husband Arnold Chan.
24/09/19 Rick H.
The recent nomination of an NDP candidate for Scarborough Agincourt is bad news for the Liberals. The NDP will siphon votes that the Liberals otherwise would have gotten in what previously was a two-horse race (with due respect to the Greens and PPC). Definitely too close to call now.
21/09/19 The Jackal
The CPC may pick up a handful of seats here and this will be one of them Funny how one safe Liberal seats such as this and York Centre are likely Conserative pick ups.
18/09/19 R.O.
The 2017 by election for this riding was reasonably close at least when compared to other Toronto ridings. the cpc by election candidate did not return and Sean Hu the new candidate but either way likely remain a closer race than other Scarborough ridings.
15/09/19 X
I find that Jean Yip has a good chance of winning. Sean Hu doesn't look like a kind of person who's ready to represent our riding. There are not many candidates who are running in the riding of Scarborough-Agincourt. Jean has been the one who has been supporting the seniors, the youth/child, and adults. Her late husband, Arnold Chan, just allowed her to shine for our riding, and she has the true obligation to do so. Many barriers may stop Jean. For example, Sean will try and do anything to take Jean's votes away. But in my humble opinion, Jean has a pretty decent chance of winning this riding. As for Anthony... Good luck with that.
05/08/20 A.S.
In 2011, it was more of a Karygiannis riding than a Liberal riding; and not only was he already a 'Blue Liberal' populist, that was before the GTA Chinese electorate started *really* swinging to the right--and even widow's grace couldn't save Jean Yip from a byelection close call. Also, the Ford backlash might not be as marked within the Sinoburban community--there's a reason why DoFo chose Markham for his Ford Fest. But still; the Libs hold it, and at this point they *could* potentially bank on the riding maturing out of its rawer Sinoburban tendencies as the more aggressively blue-aspirational migrate north of Steeles, and the Sheppard corridor condo-intensifies. So just as a Con-favourable tendency washes in, a countervailing Lib-favourable tendency washes it back out. Neat, huh?
08/04/19 Sam
Is this the safe riding it once was? Clearly not. With the departure of Jim Karygiannis, plus demographic trends, particularly amongst the Chinese population, this riding is definitely drifting in the Conservative's direction. If anything, I would argue their 2015 result was an underperformance, and that the shift can be seen in the provincial election, with an Armenian candidate in Aris Babikian winning more than 50%, a higher percentrage of the vote than in neighbouring Don Valley North. I think this is leaning slightly in the Conservative's direction, and I suspect I may soon solidify that call barring major changes in the outlook.
06/04/19 Legolas
This used to be one of the worst seats for the Conservatives in suburban Toronto but with Chinese voters being more inclined to vote for the blue team these days, this should be a seat the CPC should pick-up. It's interesting that the CPC gained vote percentage in 2015 compared to 2011, and again in the 2017 by-election when they were polling low. With a better candidate this time around the CPC should be the front runners.
03/04/19 seasaw
This riding's been Liberal since inception, and the Liberals usually win with over 50% of the vote, nothing'll change this time
21/03/19 Branden M
Given that this was a riding that went Liberal even in the 2011 election and has never voted Conservative, and that the government won the by-election by 9%, i think this will stay a decently safe Liberal riding.
16/03/19 Craig
Given the fact that the by-election was close and the Conservatives actually improved from 2011 to 2015 here (and picked up the seat provincially in 2018), this is probably the most likely Conservative pickup in the 416 area code. That is amazing considering the fact it remained Liberal throughout the Mulroney and Harper years and the Harris years (and the Liberals used to win with rural Alberta-like results).
Chinese-Canadians dominate this riding and they have definitely had a trend to the right over the last decade, both in Ontario and in BC. That alone will likely swing this seat to the Conservatives even if they lose the national vote. Demographically similar Markham-Unionville might be a clue too.
26/02/19 MF
Given the Conservative trend among Chinese Canadians, Agincourt is certainly one of the most likely Conservative pickups in Toronto, if there are any at all.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster