Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-27 21:41:22

Constituency Profile


Hu, Shuang Quan (Sean) Q.

Yip, Jean


Jean Yip

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



21.37 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Arnold Chan ** 2158751.90%
Bin Chang 1580238.00%
Laura Patrick 32637.90%
Debra Scott 5701.40%
Jude Coutinho 3340.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Aris Babikian 1858250.4%
Soo Wong * 1042928.29%
Tasleem Riaz 643417.45%
Lydia West 6351.72%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3861.12%

08/04/19 Sam
Is this the safe riding it once was? Clearly not. With the departure of Jim Karygiannis, plus demographic trends, particularly amongst the Chinese population, this riding is definitely drifting in the Conservative's direction. If anything, I would argue their 2015 result was an underperformance, and that the shift can be seen in the provincial election, with an Armenian candidate in Aris Babikian winning more than 50%, a higher percentrage of the vote than in neighbouring Don Valley North. I think this is leaning slightly in the Conservative's direction, and I suspect I may soon solidify that call barring major changes in the outlook.
06/04/19 Legolas
This used to be one of the worst seats for the Conservatives in suburban Toronto but with Chinese voters being more inclined to vote for the blue team these days, this should be a seat the CPC should pick-up. It's interesting that the CPC gained vote percentage in 2015 compared to 2011, and again in the 2017 by-election when they were polling low. With a better candidate this time around the CPC should be the front runners.
03/04/19 seasaw
This riding's been Liberal since inception, and the Liberals usually win with over 50% of the vote, nothing'll change this time
21/03/19 Branden M
Given that this was a riding that went Liberal even in the 2011 election and has never voted Conservative, and that the government won the by-election by 9%, i think this will stay a decently safe Liberal riding.
16/03/19 Craig
Given the fact that the by-election was close and the Conservatives actually improved from 2011 to 2015 here (and picked up the seat provincially in 2018), this is probably the most likely Conservative pickup in the 416 area code. That is amazing considering the fact it remained Liberal throughout the Mulroney and Harper years and the Harris years (and the Liberals used to win with rural Alberta-like results).
Chinese-Canadians dominate this riding and they have definitely had a trend to the right over the last decade, both in Ontario and in BC. That alone will likely swing this seat to the Conservatives even if they lose the national vote. Demographically similar Markham-Unionville might be a clue too.
26/02/19 MF
Given the Conservative trend among Chinese Canadians, Agincourt is certainly one of the most likely Conservative pickups in Toronto, if there are any at all.

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