Election Prediction Project

Scarborough North
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:37

Constituency Profile


Chen, Shaun

Chen, Yan

Guerrier, Jude

Kong, David

Robinson, Janet

Velez, Avery


Shaun Chen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



30.41 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Shaun Chen 1890448.20%
Ravinder Malhi 1073727.40%
Rathika Sitsabaiesan ** 864822.10%
Eleni MacDonald 5791.50%
Raphael Rosch 1640.40%
Aasia Khatoon 1560.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2770.77%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Scarborough-Rouge River
   (92.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (7.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Raymond Cho * 1741351.05%
Dwayne Morgan 832024.39%
Chin Lee 751922.04%
Nicole Peltier 5431.59%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3131.01%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberals will hold this. Could be the most competitive of the Scarborough seats though.
12/09/19 Kumar Patel
Any GTA riding that the Liberals won by 20 points in 2015 will likely remain Liberal.
12/09/19 MF
A.S. has rightfully noted that the real fault line in Scarborough is not the lakefront vs. the rest but ‘Chinese Scarborough’ vs. (non-Chinese) multicultural Scarborough (the lakefront sliver is inconsequential politically). That was very evident in the provincial election where the PCs crossed the 50% mark in Agincourt and Scarborough North but were kept below 40% in the other Scarborough ridings. Scarborough North does have some countervailing tendencies in the eastern half of the riding, however, that Agincourt lacks (which explains the NDP coming up the middle with 35% under the 2011 boundaries). Given the shift toward the Conservatives in the Chinese community, it seems likely that Scarborough North will pull away from ‘non-Chinese Scarborough’ in terms of Conservative support. But it won't be enough to take the riding from the Liberals.
05/08/20 A.S.
Without a Rathika element, I wouldn't deem the NDP to be 'watched' unless Neethan Shan was the candidate (or unless there was a more universal swing on their behalf). Indeed, the fact that Rathika subsequently ran for (and lost) a provincial Liberal nomination might suggest that whole dynamic sliding into the Shaun Chen camp this time. Countering that, of course, is the more general SinoCon swing--but at least on historical grounds, the CPC infrastructure seems weaker here than in Agincourt (if not insurmountably so); it'll depend on whether the Cons can 'do a Cho' and sway Malvern and Morningside Heights as well...
13/03/19 Sam
The sort of riding that started out as safe and is now more and more competitive, this riding is now looking good for the Conservatives, with a great-fitting candidate in David Kong. This riding is on the edge of Toronto and the Liberals don't have the appeal here like they do in Guildwood or downtown Toronto. The NDP should also be watched even though they have no chance here.
07/03/19 Dr.Bear
While probably a Liberal hold, I can not deny that Scarborough North is looking good for the Conservatives. This seat is 44% Chinese and the Conservatives have been doing well with this group. Let's also not forget the ongoing diplomatic spat over the Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. That might sour some voters towards the Liberals.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This went solidly PC provincially but much of that was due to being part of the Ford Nation, plus having a former popular city councilor Raymond Cho as their candidate. Considering the history of this riding, I suspect it will stay Liberal although probably will tighten up a bit.

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