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Scarborough Southwest
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:43
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Blair, Bill

Cain, Amanda

Eratostene, Italo

Fawcett Smith, Kimberly

Luisi, Simon

McCrady, Keith


Incumbent:

Bill Blair

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

110278
106733

43158
41451

27.96 km²
3944.8/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bill Blair 2558652.50%
Dan Harris ** 1157423.70%
Roshan Nallaratnam 1034721.20%
Tommy Taylor 12592.60%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1247431.68%
1373034.87%
1155429.34%
16014.07%
Other 200.05%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Scarborough Southwest
   (93.49% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Scarborough-Guildwood
   (6.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Doly Begum 1983545.66%
Gary Ellis 1356531.22%
Lorenzo Berardinetti * 822818.94%
David Del Grande 11742.7%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1812349.93%
761120.97%
855523.57%
14764.07%
Other 5301.46%


20/10/19 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
Blair's name value and cabinet spot plus this is Scarborough should equal a Liberal win tomorrow.
15/10/19 Mark
99.239.105.89
As much as I hate to see the Liberals stay in power I don't mind Bill Blair much as a candidate on an individual level, which is good because he has this one all sewn up.
The Conservatives will be beaten by Blair's higher profile and the fact he is the incumbent. The NDP had a great provincial win here but don't stand a chance in this one, their organization is never the best but in this riding they are an absolute fiasco. This doesn't just mean they'll be a distant third, it also means they won't even peel away enough votes from the Liberals to help the Conservatives make a dent.
About as close to a guaranteed Liberal hold as you'll find in Ontario.
22/09/19 R.O.
24.146.17.200
Despite talk on here of it not being competitive , the Toronto Sun lists the riding as one of 4 hot races to watch in the city in an article published today. the other 3 ridings being Davenport , Parkdale High Park and Etobicoke Lakeshore. Bill Blair was not interviewed for the article however cpc candidate Kimberly Fawcett was.
05/08/20 A.S.
99.225.32.21
It's not a matter of 'waterfront' Scarborough favouring the Libs, but of 'non-Chinese' Scarborough (i.e. largely S of the 401)--in fact, SSW was Scarborough's *weakest* seat for the provincial Libs last year (and with an incumbent, yet!), largely due to the victorious NDP soaking up all of their energy. Federally, it looks more like a reprise of 2015's Blair blaah with NDP and CPC soaking up each other's energy.
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
Bill Blair has this all locked up. Almost impossible to compete with his name recognition and the Trudeau agenda will have been more or less fairly popular with the majority of the electorate here.
28/06/19 Craig
130.18.104.137
Safe Liberal. Bill Blair may not be very popular in rural or western Canada due to the ban on semi-automatics and musings of a ban on handguns. Ironically, the fact he didn't go all-in on a handgun ban may hurt him some here, along with the G-20 controversies. Scarborough Southwest is the most urban of the Scarborough ridings (particularly south of Eglinton Avenue), rejecting the Fords when the rest of the former city largely embraced them.
Despite Blair's shortcomings, the NDP weakness and high profile keeps him locked in and secure here, while the Conservatives will likely finish a distant second in the low to mid-20s. It's surprising in a way that Tom Wappel was the MP here for so long, since he would much more likely be a Conservative - and unelectable here - today.
22/04/19 Sam
86.152.231.91
Bill Blair will hold on here, as all of waterfront Scarborough favours the Liberals and this is the most waterfront of all the Scarborough ridings. The NDP are the main threat and they only won narrowly at their 2011 high point.
06/04/19 Legolas
109.70.100.19
Like Etobicoke-Lakeshore on the west-end, Scarborough Southwest has slowly began to take a more downtown-y seat and I would say it's closer to being like Beaches-East York or Parkdale than the rest of Scarborough in its voting patterns. If Jagmeet can revive the NDP they can be competitive here, but other than that I say this is Blair's to lose.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
While Bill Blair maybe controversial with some (G20 protestors on the left whom dislike his hard police tactics and gun lobbyist on the right who fear he will ban handguns and semi-automatics) he is a good fight in this lower middle income suburban liberal leaning riding where people like law and order candidates.



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