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Spadina-Fort York
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-02-24 17:44:50
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Fang, Frank

Vaughan, Adam


Incumbent:

Adam Vaughan

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

115506
82480

75838
67864

12.47 km²
9266.1/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Adam Vaughan 3014154.70%
Olivia Chow ** 1504727.30%
Sabrina Zuniga 867315.70%
Sharon Danley 11372.10%
Michael Nicula 910.20%
Nick Lin 590.10%


2011 Results (redistributed)

771320.86%
1835149.64%
901424.38%
15414.17%
Other 3500.95%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Trinity-Spadina
   (93.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Toronto Centre
   (6.85% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Chris Glover 2467749.62%
Han Dong * 1177023.67%
Iris Yu 1083421.79%
Rita Bilerman 18153.65%


2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

1666048.30%
602417.46%
921626.71%
18575.38%
Other 7392.14%


10/04/19 Laurence Putnam
50.68.187.24
If Vaughan can beat Chow 2-1, albeit in a high watermark election for the Liberals, he'll more than likely do so again against a lower profile NDP candidate in what is expected to be the worst federal NDP campaign in 20 years.
08/04/19 RG
204.40.194.134
Solid Liberal seat. The Liberals would have to have a complete meltdown to lose (which is quite possible given their mishandling of the SNC-LAvalin file and Judy Wilson-Raybauld). People are disappointed with the Liberal right now, but this is a riding where progressive have no choice.
People aren't going to go with the Tories. The NDP would need to up its game here dramatically to make a dent.
20/03/19 Marco Ricci
174.114.238.210
Yes, as others have said below, I think this riding leans Liberal for the near future. Vaughan won here by a 2-1 margin last time, and that was against Olivia Chow -- one of the biggest NDP names in Toronto. If Chow couldn't come close to Vaughan, who in the NDP can beat him? It could happen, but it would take a big Liberal drop in Toronto, plus a star NDP candidate.
16/03/19 Sam
86.156.206.227
Although this might look high on the NDP target list, the Liberals and Adam Vaughan are great fits for this riding generally. It may get a lot closer but the Liberals should still win here in nearly all circumstances.
16/03/19 Craig
24.213.108.184
No matter the behaviour of Adam Vaughan, there's no way he loses this. The NDP would have to poll ahead of the LPC to have a chance (and become the anti-Conservative voice). The many new condo towers constantly going up are largely home to young professionals and creative class types who would naturally be Liberal voters, switching to the NDP (or Greens) strategically if necessary.
The Conservatives are irrelevant here with Ford very unpopular and Harper still fresh on their mind (and yes, Trump is tied to them too). In an era of right-populism and immigration an issue, that will be radioactive here more than almost anywhere else. In fact, I can see the Conservatives falling to fourth behind the Greens...
25/02/19 seasaw
99.225.244.232
I'm saying TCTC, for now, Adam Vaughan has been less than professional, but it might not effect his re-election chances. He may not even be the candidate this time around. We have to wait and see the magnitude of the scandal, if it effects the Liberals in an extremely negative way, it'll go NDP, otherwise it's going to stay Liberal
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
Adam Vaughan may drive the right crazy, but he is a perfect fit for this riding full of promiscuous progressives (note I used to live here for about a decade, but now live in Vancouver Centre) and add to the fact the rapid construction of high end condos and loss of university area makes an NDP win here that much tougher notwithstanding their poor polling numbers.



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