||Right Honourable Adult|
|More accurately, this is now an Adam Vaughan riding for as long as he would like it (or until the NDP sends in someone with the weight of a Mike Layton).|
|I agree with RM, while the Liberal free fall seems to have ended for now, the NDP doesn't seem to have benefited. Greens and Tories may pick up a few votes, but it's not going to stop a Liberal landslide in this riding.|
|I think the Liberals have stopped their free-fall nationally. Adam is well liked locally. The Liberal national campaign can still mess it up, and the NDP could still pull out some surprises. But this riding is not the old trinity spadina riding. It is filled with condos, expensive townhouses, liberal elites and progressive condo dwellers. Solid Liberal. Any growth will be for the Greens or Tories, but not enough to displace the Liberals.|
|If Vaughan can beat Chow 2-1, albeit in a high watermark election for the Liberals, he'll more than likely do so again against a lower profile NDP candidate in what is expected to be the worst federal NDP campaign in 20 years.|
|Solid Liberal seat. The Liberals would have to have a complete meltdown to lose (which is quite possible given their mishandling of the SNC-LAvalin file and Judy Wilson-Raybauld). People are disappointed with the Liberal right now, but this is a riding where progressive have no choice. |
People aren't going to go with the Tories. The NDP would need to up its game here dramatically to make a dent.
|Yes, as others have said below, I think this riding leans Liberal for the near future. Vaughan won here by a 2-1 margin last time, and that was against Olivia Chow -- one of the biggest NDP names in Toronto. If Chow couldn't come close to Vaughan, who in the NDP can beat him? It could happen, but it would take a big Liberal drop in Toronto, plus a star NDP candidate.|
|Although this might look high on the NDP target list, the Liberals and Adam Vaughan are great fits for this riding generally. It may get a lot closer but the Liberals should still win here in nearly all circumstances.|
|No matter the behaviour of Adam Vaughan, there's no way he loses this. The NDP would have to poll ahead of the LPC to have a chance (and become the anti-Conservative voice). The many new condo towers constantly going up are largely home to young professionals and creative class types who would naturally be Liberal voters, switching to the NDP (or Greens) strategically if necessary.|
The Conservatives are irrelevant here with Ford very unpopular and Harper still fresh on their mind (and yes, Trump is tied to them too). In an era of right-populism and immigration an issue, that will be radioactive here more than almost anywhere else. In fact, I can see the Conservatives falling to fourth behind the Greens...
|I'm saying TCTC, for now, Adam Vaughan has been less than professional, but it might not effect his re-election chances. He may not even be the candidate this time around. We have to wait and see the magnitude of the scandal, if it effects the Liberals in an extremely negative way, it'll go NDP, otherwise it's going to stay Liberal|
|Adam Vaughan may drive the right crazy, but he is a perfect fit for this riding full of promiscuous progressives (note I used to live here for about a decade, but now live in Vancouver Centre) and add to the fact the rapid construction of high end condos and loss of university area makes an NDP win here that much tougher notwithstanding their poor polling numbers.|