Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-02-23 14:32:15

Constituency Profile


Kent, Peter


Peter Kent

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



62.90 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Kent ** 3191158.60%
Nancy Coldham 1839533.80%
Lorne Cherry 28145.20%
Josh Rachlis 6271.20%
Gene Balfour 5871.10%
Margaret Leigh Fairbairn 1570.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1600.35%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Gila Martow * 2888961.13%
Ezra Tanen 913419.33%
Sabi Ahsan 698514.78%
Rachel Dokhoian 10432.21%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 6311.64%

23/03/19 Mizisuga
60% of the vote in an election where the Liberals swept the GTA, the only question is by how much Peter Kent will win this time. The Russian community dislikes Trudeau, and Scheer is pro-Israel which will pull over Jews on the fence.
20/03/19 Dr. Bear
Used to be interesting. Now it's boring and predictable. I'm not sure if it's an actual Peter Kent effect or not.
19/03/19 MF
Peter Kent easily held on last time and the Liberals only made a semi-serious effort in Thornhill. Conservative dominance among Orthodox Jews and Russians has turned this into a safe blue seat, both federally and provincially.
16/03/19 Sam
Peter Kent nearly got 60% last time, in a bad year for the Conservatives, in a riding that's the first out of Toronto. It would be stunning if he lost.
16/03/19 Craig
What happened in Thornhill in 2015 was a sign that this is now a safe Conservative seat. A blowout win while losing all the neighbouring ridings is a tell-tale. The provincial Liberals remained competitive through 2014, but reality set in 2018 and it became a blowout then too - this is now the safest sub/urban seat outside of Alberta for the CPC.
That can almost entirely be attributed to the large Jewish population here and the staunch pro-Israel stance (the calls by Scheer for Jerusalem as the real capital of Israel is a huge winner here), and pro-Palestine views by some in the Liberals and especially the NDP are toxic here. If anything, the margin should open up even wider for Peter Kent - I wouldn't be surprised if they topped 70% of the vote. That's despite the fact Thornhill is fairly affluent and educated...
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Safe Conservative.
Peter Kent is running again and the two candidates running to be the Liberal candidate are not strong.

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