Election Prediction Project

Timmins-James Bay
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:24

Constituency Profile


Angus, Charlie

Boileau, Michelle

Grenke, Kraymr

Kennedy, Max

Roy, Renaud


Charlie Angus

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



248070.73 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Charlie Angus ** 1597442.90%
Todd Lever 1294034.70%
John P. Curley 760520.40%
Max Kennedy 7522.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Timmins-James Bay
   (98.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Gilles Bisson * 897857.43%
Yvan L. Génier 463429.64%
Mickey Auger 13788.81%
Lucas Blake Schinbeckler 2731.75%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 320.22%

21/10/19 John K.
So I'm changing my prediction here to Liberal. The City of Timmins part of the riding went Liberal last time, and have a stronger (more well-liked) candidate this time around. She's also Francophone which will help in some areas (Cochrane, Iroquois Falls, etc). The Liberal candidate last time was known in the community as kind of an oddball (allegedly going 'crazy' at local hockey games), so I really do think Boileau will improve on his result. There have been NO riding specific polls done for the NDP in rural/non-urban areas. There's also a weak Conservative candidate (who lost in the previous years' Municipal election by a landslide), which might force some Con voters to swing over to LIB just to get the NDP out). And let's face it, this area is very LABOUR left, not progressive left. The indigenous community will likely still vote for Charlie, but it's not a large enough percent of this riding.
21/10/19 Tony Ducey
NDP hold. I think Angus' bread and butter issue of native issues will be a key component of any Liberal NDP coalition after tomorrow.
19/10/19 NJam101
Just an update. After some thought, Charlie Angus still does have a lifetime lock here. He may not be as popular in the City of Timmins as the rest of the riding but even in Timmins he appears to have enough support to remain our MP. The recent rise in NDP support and the debate performances by leader Jagmeet Singh make it a clear victory for Angus. I don't think that the results will be much different from last time.
My final prediction:
Angus: 42%
Boileau: 33%
Grenke: 21%
Roy: 2%
Kennedy: 2%
07/10/19 NJam101
My home electoral district.
I've mentioned on here many times before that Charlie Angus has a lifetime lock on Timmins-James Bay. But I am almost...almost feeling that maybe he doesn't. There are many people here who are tired of having an MP who is always in opposition and is part of a party that is waning. And as A.S. mentioned, in 2015, the Liberal candidate received more votes than Angus within the City of Timmins. Yes, the Trudeau Liberals do have appeal in urban Timmins but maybe not quite as much as the rest of urban areas of Northern Ontario though.
Michelle Boileau being a Timmins city councillor who won big in last year's municipal election and represents the city centre will do well in Timmins. But the big problem for her is that she is unknown outside Timmins. And I think that Angus will win almost all polls in the rest of the riding along Highway 11 which includes places such as Cochrane, Englehart and Earlton as well as along Hwy 66 which includes Kirkland Lake, Larder Lake and Virginiatown.
Angus still does have quite a bit of support in the City of Timmins but his support could very well fall further from what it was in 2015. But again, the rest of the riding will ensure that he'll most likely win. His bid for the party's leadership and other high-profile activism for Indigenous communities has made him known across Canada. And the Northern portion of the riding which is almost entirely Indigenous will still vote heavily NDP. I don't think that Angus will reach 40% this time as the NDP hasn't been doing well across Canada. And Jagmeet Singh has been a bit too urban-focused that could turn off some Northern Ontario rural NDP voters.
I predict that Angus has an 85% chance of winning and 15% for Boileau.
My prediction at this point:
Angus: 38%
Boileau: 35%
Grenke: 20%
Roy: 4%
Kennedy: 3%
22/09/19 jeff316
Angus may well be saved by the fact that Greens have traditionally done so poorly in northern Ontario that any big Green national rise will have only a slight impact on his vote. He'll need to win as he's the natural leader of an NDP that has no seats in Québec.
04/09/19 ME
Charlie is a fighter and will hold this seat albeit the margin will be closer
22/08/20 A.S.
The leadership race stumble/sideswipe doesn't *seem* to have adversely affected Charlie Angus; but to be cheeky, I'll withhold a prediction anyway, just to *allow* for a 1993esque catastrophe, crazed stop-the-Cons binary sorting, etc--he could still be "Jack Harris'd", y'know. And while the final margin in 2015 was a solid-enough 8%, it must be noted that Angus would have lost Timmins proper--yet another reflection of how distinctive the JustinLibs' identity as an "urban party" was. (Yet the way in which Angus remained resilient most everywhere else offers so many coulda-been questions re so much of rural/peripheral Canada--that is, if the NDP were ever to covet a Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke type of seat, they could just look to the Angus example for guidance.)
02/07/19 Laurence Putnam
While this riding is fertile ground for the NDP, it is not a slam dunk. Federally and provincially the NDP have benefitted from very strong incumbents here, without whom I don't think the result would be so certain. In any event, Charlie Angus should have no difficulty returning to Ottawa, where I will expect he keeps his eyes trained on the leader's seat.
29/05/19 Craig
Charlie Angus has become an institution in Timmins-James Bay. As long as he runs the show and not Singh, he should easily win a 6th term in Parliament. His popularity is extremely high with the indigenous community and he is also strong with working class voters who would otherwise at least consider the Conservatives. If not for the social justice types in big cities, he'd be prime to become the next NDP leader.
The Liberal vote will likely decrease substantially with the Wilson-Raybould demotion, and while the Conservatives might be able to play the issues of gun rights and possibly immigration (although that is untested here), they don't have much else to run on here (especially as you move north in the riding). All and all, an easy NDP hold.
31/03/19 Sam
I can't see Charlie Angus losing, with him as NDP candidate it should be a retention. None of the other parties have generally been able to compete here.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
I think that the NDP will safely win this seat provided that they don't parade around the party leader too much. Singh isn't someone who'll resonate with northerners. Left to his own devices, I think Angus will win his seat again quite handily.
22/02/19 Tory Revert
This is the guy the NDP should have selected as leader. That said, he is hugely popular with First Nations and people in Northern Ontario. Solid hold for Charlie.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster