Election Prediction Project

Toronto Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:26

Constituency Profile


Carson, Sean

Chang, Brian

Cragg, Bronwyn

Fernandez, Philip

Lester, Ryan

Lewin, Rob

Morneau, Bill

Paul, Annamie

Tavares, Jason


Bill Morneau

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



5.84 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bill Morneau 2929757.90%
Linda McQuaig 1346726.60%
Julian Di Battista 616712.20%
Colin Biggin 13152.60%
Jordan Stone 1470.30%
Mariam Ahmad 1330.30%
Philip Fernandez 760.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4861.30%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Toronto Centre
   (99.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Suze Morrison 2368853.66%
David Morris 1198627.15%
Meredith Cartwright 623414.12%
Adam Sommerfeld 13773.12%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10653.11%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think Morneau's a weak finance minister but he'll still win this seat again tomorrow.
27/09/19 R.O.
Some people dislike Bill Morneau especially conservatives but there is realistically little chance he loses this riding . most likely challenge would come from the ndp and there not even focused on the riding this year.
23/09/19 Marc Cohen
This one is a bit of a sleeper. However, a more compelling race may be shaping up for second place given a seemingly low-key NDP presence and a much stronger Green campaign than I have observed previously in this area. You could see the Liberal vote hovering around 50% with the other parties fighting over the remaining 50% collectively.
21/09/19 The Jackal
I have to call this one for the Liberals as the NDP aren’t too well here and look to be shutout of Toronto again.
16/08/20 ohara
Suze Morrison's victory in the provincial election was impressive and Toronto Centre is the type of riding that *should* go NDP, especially with a business liberal like Morneau representing it. It'll be interesting to see if the NDP does better than in Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale like they did provincially. But they're just too far behind to take it federally this year. Morneau wins by default.
04/08/20 A.S.
I do wonder how the Suze Morrison effect will spill over (however tokenly) into the federal sphere--it certainly 'reframes' the TC NDP in a streetwise fashion that doesn't necessitate Linda McQuaig's lefty-chattering-class crutch. (And even the Con candidate's a step above what was, provincially, the most hapless PC campaign leading to 2018's worst PC result in the province.) But when it comes to campaigning against Morneau in 2019, it's really more a matter of banking on 2023.
08/07/19 MF
This was interestingly the strongest riding for the ONDP in the provincial election of the ‘downtown three’ thanks to the OLP collapse. Toronto Centre no longer includes Rosedale, has fewer high end condos than Spadina-Fort York and contains a sizeable low income and social housing component. Bill Morneau will almost certain win this by default, not because out of any loyalty to him personally (he's neither a good Cabinet minister or a strong constituency pol) but because the federal Liberal brand remains strong.
11/04/19 Laurence Putnam
Without the high profile (but ultimately ineffective) candidacy of Linda McQuaig, this is a plain and simple coronation ceremony for Bill Morneau.
12/03/19 seasaw
Bill Morneau hasn't been the best finance minister and his ethics have been questionable. That being said it would take an epic Liberal collapse and by that I mean worse than Campbell type collapse for him to lose here, even if the Liberals were to be reduced to single digits, this will be one of the ridings they win. Somehow, I don't think either of the above is very likely
27/02/19 Craig
Barring a total collapse, this should be a rock-solid Liberal hold and one of their best results outside Atlantic Canada. Downtown Toronto is extremely well educated, progressive and creative class dominant and will not even touch today's Conservatives who might finish fourth behind the Greens. The NDP would be the alternative, but they'll only be a factor if the Liberals collapse (where the vote would likely coalesce behind them). If the Liberals lose the election, Freeland will be a strong candidate for being their next leader.
24/02/19 Sam
This seat has recently been rock-solid Liberal, and unless there is a dramatic NDP landslide, which obviously really seems unlikely, Bill Morneau should be re-elected, having won with 58% of the vote last time. Morneau is additionally one of the best-known Liberals which can only help him in a safe Liberal seat - the seat isn't vulnerable enough for the other parties to try and aggressively oust him.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Bill Morneau may not be the sharpest finance minister, but this is a very safe Liberal riding which they only lose in a meltdown like provincially in 2018, so he should easily be re-elected. Question is does he keep his position as finance minister or not.

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