Election Prediction Project

Wellington-Halton Hills
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:47

Constituency Profile


Barron, Lesley

Bascombe, Andrew

Carle, Syl

Chong, Michael

Martin, Ralph


Michael Chong

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1487.86 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Michael Chong ** 3248250.90%
Don Trant 2327936.50%
Anne Gajerski-Cauley 53218.30%
Brent Allan Bouteiller 25474.00%
Harvey Edward Anstey 1830.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3150.57%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Wellington-Halton Hills
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Ted Arnott * 3165954%
Diane Ballantyne 1408724.03%
Jon Hurst 749212.78%
Dave Rodgers 50668.64%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 12412.58%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Michael Chong will win here again tomorrow. He seems out of place in today's Conservative party. Maybe a floor crosser if the Liberals win a minority? Only speculation on my part mind you.
17/08/20 A.S.
While it may *seem* as if Halton Hills is 'Red Tory' because it's been the riding's more GTA-Liberal-leaning component in the past, what's interesting about 2015's result is that the Liberals actually did better vs the Cons in the centres of Fergus and Elora than in Acton or Georgetown--perhaps a foreshadowing of how the outer 905 went particularly Ford-krazy in 2018; or else a reflection of how those *real* erstwhile CentreWellingtonian Red Tory strongholds are increasingly satellites of that ultimate Red-Tory-turned-Liberal/Green stronghold, Guelph. (I'll assume they'll be a natural component within a 'Guelph North' riding someday.)
29/05/19 Craig
Michael Chong may not be the most popular MP among the Conservative grassroots, but locally he's still fairly popular. As a Red Tory, he's able to win over Liberal-leaning voters (especially in fast-growing Halton Hills) while able to do just enough in rural Wellington to keep challengers at bay.
With the LPC weakened, there should be no doubt about this one. While the northern part of the riding might prefer a more conservative MP (a weakness the PPC might try to exploit), they know that all it would do is split the vote as the southern part tends to be more of the Red Tory type. Hence, Chong should win another term easily...but once he retires, the nomination will be a fierce battle.
16/03/19 Sam
Michael Chong would be a great candidate in many ridings, but he's proven how well he does here. Interestingly, he was only 3 points down on Ted Arnott's position provincially in 2018 in 2015; he's popular and will win again, there's no chance of this going for any other party anyway.
16/03/19 PFR
Michael Chong has held this riding since 2004. His margin of victory is going to increase in the next election.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Being a largely rural riding, this would go Tory to begin with, but add to the fact Michael Chong is a Red Tory, he can win over many on the fence who are disappointed with Trudeau but wary of Scheer. Interesting that despite a riding with deep blue roots, but the MP and MPP (Ted Arnott) are Red Tories which are a rarity in today's more polarized politics.
19/02/19 seasaw
This one's a no brainer. Chung has represented this riding very well for the past 15 years. Can't see it change now

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