Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:56

Constituency Profile


Dias, Brian

McCarthy, Todd

Pejic, Mirko

Slavchenko, Paul

Turnbull, Ryan


Celina Caesar-Chavannes

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



146.66 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Celina Caesar-Chavannes 2900345.00%
Pat Perkins ** 2715442.10%
Ryan Kelly 667710.30%
Craig Cameron 14032.20%
Jon O'Connor 2790.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1680.32%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lorne Coe * 2647145.8%
Niki Lundquist 2115836.61%
Leisa Washington 744112.87%
Stacey Leadbetter 19583.39%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 2460.50%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Not sure why this was moved to TCTC. I think of all the seats that go Conservative tomorrow this 1 is it.
20/10/19 JSn
This was always going to be close due to lack of incumbent.
The NDP rise of 5 points, Liberal drop of about the same, Con drop of 2, plus Whitby's ancient blue-collar past with the NDP, seem to add up to the Libs losing more than the Cons over the past week. With the numbers so even, time to call this Con like everyone else, due to the vote splits... though Cons will be winning this with fewer & fewer total votes as time goes on.
18/10/19 QuebecCityOliver
I am surprised by how close this is on 338. I did call it correctly 4 years ago (for the Liberals). I think that we are seeing the spillover from Pickering and Ajax into Whitby which is driving up the Liberal vote whereas Oshawa is just becoming more distinctly different than the suburban ridings slightly closer to Toronto despite the fact that Oshawa and Whitby roll seamlessly into each other.
I don't think it will be that close. At least 5% and Oshawa will be an even greater victory for the CPC - Carrie has been there for a while now.
16/10/19 R.O.
Just don’t see the liberals winning here without the incumbent now former mp Celina Caesar Chavannes although I was surprised back in 2015 when she won the riding. as back then the cpc had just won a hard fought by election in 2014 for the same riding. And provincially the riding always votes pc and not been liberal in recent memory. Todd Mccarthy is the new cpc candidate this year and campaigning for some time. 2 mainstreet polls have both shown a close race but fell it’s a riding that leans more conservative than liberal.
11/10/19 Nick M.
Purely from an outsider looking in...
This should be a CPC gain. Won the riding provincially 2014 when the Libs won the election. Barely lost it in 2015 federally. No LPC incumbent.
The data that is not on my side with this thesis is that the Provincial Conservatives didn’t grow their vote much in 2018, which indicates that this riding is rapidly changing. Doesn’t seem to be a rapidly growing riding though, as the raw vote count didn’t change all that much from 2014 to 2018.
But I am sticking to my CPC pickup.
30/09/19 Tory Revert
The ground presence on private property is so overwhelmingly CPC that I can't fathom a Liberal victory here. Turnbull is a parachute with no history in the riding. McCarthy is a well known lawyer of the Flaherty-Elliott firm. This won't even be close.
12/09/19 DurhamDave
This is my riding and I wouldn't be so quick to call this for the Conservatives.
The NDP and Greens are irrelevant in Whitby, and the NDP will be focusing on long-coveted Oshawa, not Whitby. None of the candidates this time around are particularly strong. They CPC had the former mayor last time and still lost. The Conservatives will now have to contend with the PPC. The PPC may only shave off 500 votes from the CPC, but in a close riding like this one, that just might make the difference.
The LPC are polling well in Ontario. EKOS Research recently had them polling at about 10 points ahead and the recent Mainstreet poll had the CPC and LPC in a statistical tie here. Add in a potential Doug Ford backlash and I don't think this riding is a slam dunk for the CPC as some people might think it is. I fully expect Trudeau and Scheer to make a few stops here during the campaign.
TCTC is the right call here until closer to election day (or another poll) and it may just be one of the closest results on election day.
11/09/19 Tory Revert
I think Liberal support here is overblown. When word gets out that the Liberal and NDP candidates were parachuted in, voters will take note. The fact that the Liberals couldn't find someone local to run tells you what they think their chances are. The Greens have attracted a credible candidate in Dr. Paul Slavchenko. Not only do I expect the CPC to win here, the NDP will slip to fourth place.
08/08/20 A.S.
The Mainstreet poll affirmed what I've felt all along: that even factoring out whatever effect the triple-C's antics have on the Libs, Whitby's Conservative solidity was always an illusion projected by the Flaherty/Elliott machine, and the place was always destined to follow Ajax's gravitational pull into Lib-friendly GTAism by way of evolving "natural condition". And of course, there's the matter of the NDP wildly exceeding expectations in last year's provincial election--which is really more about suburban "promiscuous progressivism" than it is about the NDP...
28/07/19 seasaw
I'm changing my prediction from CPC to TCTC, a poll conducted by Mainstreet, shows CPC up by 2 points. While the CPC still has the edge, and they have nominated a very strong candidate(the Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate), there's still almost 3 months left before the election and anything can happen.
26/07/19 Marco Ricci
New riding poll from Mainstreet shows a close race in Whitby with the Conservatives & Liberals almost tied. Perhaps this riding should be moved back to Too Close To Call?
19/07/19 Laurence Putnam
This would be a tougher riding for a Liberal to win generally, without their popular incumbent I would say very hard. Not a dyed in the wool tory riding by any measure but it certainly leans/likely Tory.
18/03/19 Dr.Bear
It was within 3 points in the last election and not the incumbent Liberal is throwing shade at the PM (as well as not running). Yeah, I don't see this working out too well for the Liberals right now.
04/03/19 Sam
As the popular MP Celina Caesar-Chevannes is retiring, it becomes a simple fight between the Liberals and Conservatives, and this area has always leaned towards the Conservatives, even going blue in the 2014 provincial election. It's now one of the most likely Conservative gains anywhere.
03/03/19 seasaw
Celina announced that she will not stand for re-election this year. Her victory in the last election was primarily due to the fact that it was both a change election and there was also Trudeaumania II going on. This time with CPC doing better in the polls and Liberal leadership being on shaky grounds, close ridings like this one will revert back to the CPC
02/03/19 Marco Ricci
Liberal MP Celina Caesar-Chavannes announced today she is not running for re-election. Her charismatic personality on the campaign trail is one of the factors that allowed the Liberals to win here. Without her, this riding is now leaning Conservative.
22/02/19 Tory Revert
My home town. We won't get burned again. Celine is a good MP and deserves well. But 2015 was the Trudeau wave and the tide will turn in this traditionally Blue riding in 2019. Tory gain.

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