Election Prediction Project

Windsor West
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:58:13

Constituency Profile


Burrell, Darryl

Hunt, Quinn

Lau, Henry

Masse, Brian

Pupatello, Sandra

Villamizar, Margaret


Brian Masse

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



77.78 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Brian Masse ** 2408551.30%
Dave Sundin 1184225.20%
Henry Lau 973420.80%
Cora LaRussa 10832.30%
Margaret Villamizar 1610.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1530.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Windsor West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Lisa Gretzky * 2027652.12%
Adam Ibrahim 1107328.47%
Rino Bortolin 572214.71%
Krysta Glovasky-Ridsdale 13933.58%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8912.45%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Pupatello's a front bench minister if elected but with the other Windsor seat looking to be leaning Liberal I think the NDP hold on here.
20/10/19 JSn
A rare CoNDP riding in Ontario. Since Singh knows he will be likability-coalition-ing with the Libs not the Cons, he is wisely spending his last campaign day here in Southwest Ontario. It's working nation-wide, and it'll work here. A 5 point rise for the NDP and a 2 point drop for the Cons in the last week, plus Singh on the street here just before the vote, should shift this NDP. This time.
20/10/19 prognosticator15
It's time to call it for NDP based on probabilities. NDP minor surge in ON may be just enough to keep this riding, the question is whether this support spreads to Essex with its scandal-affected NDP MP Ramsay. Pupatello's impact must not be overstated as she is a has-been from pre-2014 days of ON Liberals who is only likely to marshall traditional Liberal vote, and Justin's visit here has little impact. The CPC is too weak to get ahead, after conducting a disappointing campaign without emphasis on illegal migration and opposition to elite climate hysteria, the issues that could have attracted working class and low-middle class voters.
12/10/19 J.F. Breton
Remontée du NPD dans les sondages, notamment grâce à la très bonne performance de Singh dans les débats. Je ne donnerais pas le NPD vaincu dans cette ce château-fort de la gauche canadienne.
02/10/19 Physastr Master
That riding-level poll was taken at the all-time minimum for NDP, and there has been momentum for the NDP since then (albeit minor), especially in favorability and preferred PM polling. Also bear in mind that the poll was by mainstreet, which has been providing polls with the NDP consistently far below their polling averages nationally. They've also been giving riding-level results below the projected regional swings by factors of 2 in some places. Put all that together, and Brian Masse being within 2% in that polls sounds pretty great to be honest. There's still time for Jagmeet to screw it up, but I'm pretty sure Masse has the advantage for now. Windsor is pretty hostile territory for the Liberals.
27/09/19 JSn
I see Puppatello as prepping for a return to ON provincial politics as leader. That doesn't mean she isn't committed to winning this federal seat, she is, because she'll be in Cabinet instantly.
However the region has been solid NDP and has an incumbent. And, many people in Ontario want her back in provincial politics. Hopeless as that seems now, most of us don't know what it's like to live under Doug Ford...
26/09/19 Craig
Sandra Pupatello may be a game changer, but Brian Masse is no slouch either. It does mean that the parties (all of them) have to spend time in Windsor. If Justin Trudeau was not the Liberal leader (and Kathleen Wynne wasn't the recent provincial leader), I'd call it for them, but the central Liberal parties are very unpopular in the Windsor area. Ironically, musings of Pupatello in cabinet may actually 'hurt' and not help her.
That said, Masse is still very popular here too. He won't go down easy, and while Windsor West is somewhat more white-collar than the rest of the region, it's overall still a fairly working class riding. Also, I wouldn't completely count out the Conservatives either - if they can get up to a touch above 2011 levels (say 32-33%) and a perfect vote split ensues, they might have a slight chance of a historic upset. Overall, too close to call right now.
This may be a perfect storm of a poor NDP campaign + a perfect Liberal candidate which may be able to overcome the fundamentals.
13/09/19 Dr Bear
My old home riding from grad school and I am shocked that Masse is fighting for his political life! Nevertheless, Pupatello is a political heavyweight in her own right, and polls are suggesting a close dogfight. Barring any partisan opinions, most would agree that both are quality candidates and the riding will win with either one. One thing I can see hindering Pupatello is Trudeau's low popularity in the area. I have found that there is an almost Alberta-level dislike for him in much of SW Ontario. Something I have not noticed in other regions of Ontario. This is anecdotal evidence for sure, but I have heard some harsh words from some who I would not necessarily expect it from. A benefit for Pupatello, would be a sure-fire cabinet seat if the Liberals win. And I strongly agree with PY (and strongly disagree with Seesaw) on this. Sandra is a very experience politician and knows how the game is played. She is not a naive, political neophyte like some other people in cabinet were.
12/09/19 Jon
With the NDP's support waning nationally, the Liberals are making a serious play at bringing Windsor West back into the Liberal fold. Masse is personally popular, but Pupatello is pushing the narrative that a Liberal win in Windsor West means a seat in government.
12/09/19 Kumar Patel
This is the race to watch in Ontario. However, I think it's premature to call it for the Liberals.
Sandra Pupatello was a successful politician, but she hasn't won a campaign since 2007 and hasn't been an active politician since 2013. It's not a given she can coast on her past accomplishments and advocacy for the region. Sometimes politicians returning to the game have a hard time adapting to the changing landscape. Pupatello is also known for a brash style, that caused her to lose the LPO leadership race to Wynne.
Brian Masse is a popular, though low-key incumbent. He will outperform his party.
It's a toss up right now, but if NDP fortunes improve I would say its an NDP hold.
10/09/19 PY
Yes, indeed...Pupatello's in as per the Liberal website. If she wasn't, I'd still count Brian Masse as one of the few remaining NDP survivors in this campaign.
I look back at Masse's seventeen years of Bill McNeal-like adequacy as a constituency MP and can't help feel but sorry for him at this point.
Here's some personal trivia: I was still in Windsor and studying at the University when Johnny Cash's cover of 'Hurt' was released. I certainly appreciated his effort, but I thought it was a curious choice for him at the time. Previous to that, Cash's cover of 'Sixteen Tons' had always been a favourite of mine (and still is today). Fast forward to now and it seems eerily apt.
I will disagree with Seesaw, though. Pupatello, unlike JWR for example, is as politically astute as one can get and will be a trusted hand in cabinet and the LPC caucus. I do agree that she could be a worthy successor one day, though.
08/09/19 seasaw
Sandra Pupatello did get the Liberal nomination which means that Brian Masse's career is drawing to a close. Pupatello will win, though I don't know if she'll be in the cabinet if the Liberals win. She is a strong intelligent woman and Mr Trudeau doesn't like that type. One thing I can guess though, is that she'll be a leadership contender.
06/09/19 Mike B
Pupatello in the race is a big deal.
What I can't wrap my head around is the expected level of transfer of votes to get a win.
Brian Masse hasn't done anything different than what he has been doing since he was elected and returning with significant majorities even when the NDP were in the dumps.
Certainly nothing to warrant him losing 20 points of his vote share and the entirety of that 20 share going to the Liberals.
Pupatello is strong and will have an impact, but the risk of loss is overblown.
05/09/19 DMF
This will certainly be a riding watch on election night, but I do believe that Windsor’s warrior princess Sandra Pupatello will take it and will get cabinet post if the Trudeau Government is re-elected.
22/08/20 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet poll suggests close Liberal-NDP race in Windsor West
Aug 22, 2019
Pupatello (Lib) 33.1
Masse (NDP) 31.8
Lau (Con) 18.6
19/08/20 seasaw
Brian Masse's time as an MP, maybe drawing to a close. Former MPP and provincial cabinet minister, Sandra Pupatello is hoping to get the Liberal nomination, if she's nominated, it's Bye Bye Brian, if not then he's got a good shot.
17/08/20 ME
The Liberals are running a star candidate the former Liberal MPP for Windsor West..Sandra P. She would only be running if she thought she could win plus the PM will now spend time in Windsor.
16/08/20 A.S.
Weird how the old Herb Gray coalition morphed so cleanly, efficiently from red to orange under Brian Masse--if the Dippers are reduced to an 2018-Ontario Liberal-scale caucus *nationally*, Windsor West will be among the survivors.
17/04/19 VotingCynic
Brian Masse is the longest serving NDP MP and his past results have shown he is safe no matter what. Even if the NDP is down to ten seats he should hold it.
01/04/19 Craig
Brian Masse is very well liked here and should cruise to another victory. He's well liked among working class voters here, while also reasonably popular among the more white collar types as well.
It's true that Singh is not a particularly popular NDP leader here even though Windsor West is the most multicultural of the three Windsor-area seats (heck, Masse himself could be a potential leader if the NDP falters in October). However, the Liberals are even less popular here and have fallen into the abyss in deep Southwestern Ontario, and the Conservatives are way too far behind to compete. No matter what happens in October, Brian Masse should come back to Parliament.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Probably the safest NDP seat in Ontario; and along with Charlie Angus, perhaps the only truly safe seat in ON in what is shaping up to be become a disaster for the federal dippers.
26/03/19 Sam
This has over time become the best NDP riding in Ontario, partially due to Brian Masse's tenure, and while they underperformed in Windsor/Essex provincially this is always going to be a bright spot for them.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Considering how much the Liberals have struggled in Southwestern Ontario, this should stay NDP even with their weak numbers.
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Even if the NDP collapses nationwide they should be able to hold on to the two Windsor seats.

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