Election Prediction Project

York Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:58:18

Constituency Profile


Levitt, Michael

Vásquez Jiménez, Andrea

Willson, Rachel

Wood, Rebecca


Michael Levitt

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



35.20 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Michael Levitt 2013146.90%
Mark Adler ** 1889344.00%
Hal Berman 31487.30%
Constantine Kritsonis 7721.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   York Centre
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Roman Baber 1843450.15%
Andrea Vásquez Jiménez 861723.44%
Ramon Estaris 786521.39%
Roma Lyon 8432.29%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4251.40%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Despite the fact that this riding went Liberal in 1984 the riding went CPC in 2011 and there is CPC potential here in 2019. That said their choice of candidate isn't doing them any favors. I think candidate choice for the CPC leads to a Liberal win here tomorrow.
18/10/19 R.O.
Wanted to mention Scheer made a late campaign stop in this riding , it wasn’t available to the media but he did campaign with cpc candidate Rachel Wilson. A sign the conservatives still see some potential in this riding. Riding has a long history of being liberal but conservatives have had some recent success here federally and provincially in recent years. the 2015 results here were still relatively close when compared to other 416 ridings although that was back when Mark Adler the cpc mp for the riding.
15/10/19 Sam
York Centre will still be a race and still one the Conservatives hoped to take. But the combination of the local race (which favours Levitt over Willson) and the national picture boosting the Liberals in this particular riding means that the Liberals have a decent enough edge. It was never going to be easy for them - it was a marginal seat last time but Toronto, particularly these affluent suburbs, is proving to be conducive to a strong Liberal performance.
16/09/19 R.O.
This riding has typically been close in recent elections, that trend is likely to continue this year . Scheer’s visit to the riding an indication the cpc is focusing effort on the riding. The liberal smear on the young female cpc candidate seemed desperate in my view. And goes against trudeau’s own comments about wanting to see more women run for federal office and become involved politically
15/09/19 MF
York Centre is going Liberal. I just don't see a Christian conservative pro-life activist beating Michael Levitt.
Scarborough-Agincourt is a better bet for a Conservative pickup in Toronto.
13/09/19 Stephen B
This was a possible pick-up for the Tories, but probably not now that Wilson is in the news this week for her outspoken pro-life advocacy. She'll lose enough votes with this attention to ensure Levitt gets back in.
05/08/20 A.S.
Whatever the 'reliability' of the Jewish vote, I can actually sense a potential between-the-lines trend *away* from the Cons here--the byproduct of urban intensification along Sheppard & Wilson, in the Downsview lands, etc rendering things less monolithic and more demographically 'diverse'. But yes, York Centre will never be an Eggleton-era monolith of 70% Liberal support vs a flock of mice again.
16/07/19 MF
The Orthodox Jewish/Russian demos have shifted York Centre rightward - if TO had NYC-type voting patterns this would be the most reliable seat for the right in the city, hands down. That being said Michael Levitt's Jewish community and pro-Israel credentials are impeccable, and he's got a pretty high profile as an MP. The Conservatives need to be polling stronger to take this, I think.
16/03/19 Sam
Now I can post this properly, this riding is going to be a close one, but the reason why it's close rather than Conservative just yet, is that it's a Toronto riding with a Liberal incumbent.
03/03/19 seasaw
This was once one of the safest Liberal seats, Liberal candidate was easily elected even during the 1984 Tory landslide. In recent years though, things have changed, if we were to use the latest polling numbers, and that's before the former AG's testimony, Tories will take this, however, we have to wait till closer to election time to make an accurate prediction
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
While I do not disagree that the CPC could win this seat, nor do I disagree that it has become more right-leaning, I am not yet convinced of any major shift to the Conservatives in Toronto. I think TCTC is the right call for now.
23/02/19 dlz
Michael Levitt is good local MP who is well liked. But I think he rode a strong Liberal wave in 2015. This riding is ripe to switch back to the Tories, the provincial election shows this is becoming more of a Tory riding.

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