Election Prediction Project

Humber River-Black Creek
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:58:27

Constituency Profile


Augimeri, Maria

Choudry, Iftikhar

Krosinska, Ania

Nugent, Christine

Schmitz, Mike

Sgro, Judy

Smith, Stenneth


Judy Sgro

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



30.56 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Judy Sgro ** 2399566.90%
Kerry Vandenberg 722820.20%
Darnel Harris 385110.70%
Keith Jarrett 5841.60%
Christine Nugent 2010.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4011.45%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   York West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Tom Rakocevic 1157337.42%
Cyma Musarat 936730.29%
Deanna Sgro 864227.94%
Kirsten J. Bennett 4851.57%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3781.48%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal since the 1960's including through 1984 and 2011. Surprised Sgro ran again but she's a shoo in for victory tomorrow.
11/10/19 Mizisuga
Unlikely to flip to another party, but it will be interesting to see how much the other parties gain considering the recent scandal.
30/09/19 R.O.
Typically a safe liberal riding federally but was surprised Judy Sgro decided to run again , she’s nearing mandatory retirement age if she were a senator. The riding did go ndp provincially and they have a longtime former Toronto city councillor as a candidate this year. Although Maria Augimeri would need stronger ndp numbers in Ontario to have a chance here.
05/08/20 A.S.
The trouble with seasaw's 'single digit seat count' hypothetical is that not only was HRBC *not* one of the seats the provincial Libs held in '18, Sgro's daughter Deanna finished *third*. Also, Sgro's facing a high profile NDP opponent in former Councillor Maria Augimeri--though maybe the most Augimeri can wish for is reclaiming 2nd place from CPC. And even that's not a given as it now stands.
02/08/20 RD
Former Toronto City Councillor Maria Augimeri (narrowly defeated in 2018 when her York Centre ward was merged with another) has been nominated as the NDP candidate here. I think the Liberal incumbent Sgro is the favorite but the NDP has been building momentum here, won provincially, and the riding is less gentrified than other NDP targets to the south.
27/03/19 Laurence Putnam
In 2011, the Liberals ran their worst campaign in all of history and still got almost 50% of the vote here. With the NDP in decline and a high profile incumbent, this is a guaranteed seat in the Liberal column on election night.
26/03/19 Sam
This is was on paper the best Liberal riding in the 416. There's no real chance of any other outcome here than the re-election of Judy Sgro.
17/03/19 seasaw
This is one riding that the Liberals will win, even if their seat count is in single digits ( not that it's going to happen, at least not this time). Judy Sgro has been a good MP, and nothing is going to stop her re-election
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This might have gone NDP provincially, but considering how weak they are federally, doubt they will replicate that success. Also this is part of the Ford Nation so the PCs did surprisingly well despite falling short, however I doubt they will do quite as well federally so promiscuous Progressives + Liberal partisans + Ford Liberals = solid Liberal win.

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