Election Prediction Project

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:05:04

Constituency Profile


Eyolfson, Doug

Fletcher, Steven

Ho, Brian

Lauhn-Jensen, Kristin

Morantz, Marty

Penner, Melissa

St. George, Ken


Doug Eyolfson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



205.03 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Doug Eyolfson 2453152.00%
Steven Fletcher ** 1840839.00%
Tom Paulley 28426.00%
Kevin Nichols 13762.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberals will hold on here. The Fletcher effect will play a role here.
20/10/19 Ian
Big change in the riding. PPC should win. They have a great candidate. Former MP and cabinet minister and just finished a term as MLA in the riding. Perhaps the prediction made today by prediction election.org was made before the Warren Kinsella scandal hit the tories. At a personal level the CPC candidate is really unpopular. PPC on this!
08/10/19 Arseny
I'm not liking it but I think that Fletcher will confuse / fool enough people into thinking he's the CPC candidate to split the vote enough to hand the Liberals a win here. He's not going to win or come close though. The sign war, which he's competitive in, is being thrown askew by his followers placing his signs on all kinds of public areas.
Eyjolfson with the plurality. It's the 2000 general election all over again.
08/10/19 Marco Ricci
The fact that there are Liberal, Conservative & PPC predictions below would seem to indicate that this riding is indeed a close race that no one can predict. Last month's Mainstreet poll showed a tie race between the Liberals & Conservatives, so it will be interesting to see how the PPC factors into that:
08/10/19 D M
Updating my opinion on Fletcher winning for the PPC.
A tour of the riding showed areas where lawn signs were a race between PPC and CPC and fewer where it was PPC v LPC. Fletcher had no dead zones.
17/09/19 The Jackal
The feeling here is Stephen Fletcher will take enough right wing votes from the CPC which will allow the Liberals to narrowly hang on to this riding.
16/09/19 D M
The Conservatives got a jump on the lawn signs but now the PPC has pulled ahead of the Liberals. I am picking Fletcher. Word is nobody likes Marty. He has the CPC machine but if momentum takes hold, Fletcher will win.
16/09/19 Tory Revert
According to the official Leader's Debate Commission, the PPC has a legitimate chance of winning this seat. According to riding level polls conducted for the commission by Ekos, at least 25% of respondents said it was ‘possible’ that they would vote for the People's Party candidate. Who would have thought that Maxime had a shot here.
14/09/19 R.O.
Unusual race here as the former conservative mp is running for the people’s party . doubt very much he’ll be returning to Ottawa but its tough to gauge what affect he will have on the race.
27/08/19 A.S.
Fletcher's party switch probably goes a way toward reminding Winnipeggers of why they opted to reject him and the rest of 2015's HarperCons in the first place--unless it helps the ScheerCons by painting them in a viably "moderate" light by comparison...
25/06/19 Brian J
Latest poll shows Tories way ahead in Manitoba. A friend is working in the riding and confirms it looks like a big Tory win.
29/05/19 Craig
The Liberal brand isn't very strong in the Prairies and they have taken a hit both locally and nationally. That said, the support might hold up better here (especially in the more affluent Charleswood, as opposed to the more working/middle class St. James-Assiniboia and exurban Headingley). It also helps that the NDP has long been fairly weak here.
The fact that Steven Fletcher is running for the PPC is likely to be significant. While he has virtually no chance of winning, he could easily draw a sizable percentage of the vote - maybe in double digits - which could very well be enough to tilt the balance. For that reason, I think that the Liberals may hang on to an unlikely win, even if their vote share drops from 52% to the 30s or so. Tossup for now, maybe slight advantage Liberals.
24/05/19 Laurence Putnam
After Kildonan-St. Paul this would be the next likeliest seat to flip to the Conservatives...but of course, there has just been a recent complication. Turns out high profile former Harper Minister and current MLA Steven Fletcher is running...for Max Bernier. While it is highly doubtful at this point that Fletcher can win...could he draw 10%? 15% maybe? Could he shave enough votes away from the Tories to let the Liberals come up the middle? At this early juncture...I tend to think that may be the likeliest outcome. We will have to see how this recent announcement affects polling in this riding.
24/05/19 Marco Ricci
Former Conservative MP Steven Fletcher has decided to run for Maxime Bernier's People's Party here. It will be interesting to see if this takes a few points away from the Conservatives:
08/03/19 Sam
It was a great result for the Liberals to win with a majority in 2015 here, and they can repeat that, but the Conservatives are gaining in the Prairies and on a good night this could switch. Steven Fletcher was denied the nomination here but Marty Morantz is still a good candidate for the Conservatives who will have a lot of resources behind him.

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